The firm adds that the mobile Internet audience in the U.S. is now a third of the size of the wired Internet market, with the gap narrowing by the early part of the next decade. Source

The bottom line: No big surprises here, but some good insight into US mobile usage – in particular, the mobile internet audience is already a big target market for content providers and advertisers.
***
DON’T FORGET BLACKBERRY WEB USERS, says mobile web firm Bango. The company says BlackBerrys now account for 14 percent of all mobile web traffic, pulling ahead of the iPhone. Given the length of time BlackBerry has been in the market, plus the fact that essentially every such device comes with an unlimited data plan, it’s perhaps a little more surprising that the iPhone was ever ahead of the entire BlackBerry range. Source

The bottom line: Once again, we’re reminded that the mobile web is a lot more than just the iPhone, and that users of other devices generate significant traffic for publishers and content providers. It’s also another reminder that fragmentation among devices and the multitude of mobile web browsers on the market isn’t going away anytime soon!

***
TWO-THIRDS OF TWITTER USERS ARE UNDER 25, says eMarketer – or at least they were in May – while a tiny group of the service’s users account for most of its activity. Just 1.1 percent of Twitter users update more than 10 times per day, while 85 percent do so less than once per day; consequently, 5 percent of Twitter users account for 75 percent of its activity.

There’s also a small class of the most popular users: just 0.68 percent have more than 1,000 folllowers, while nearly 94 percent have less than 100 followers. Going the other way, the same trends hold true. 92 percent of users follow less than 100 others, while 0.77 follow more than 1,000. Source

The bottom line: The usage figures throw a little bit of cold water on the idea that Twitter is a huge runaway hit among the wider web public, since apparently it’s really only heavily used by a small percentage of users. The 85 percent that don’t update daily also points to the service having a lot of dropouts or inactive users.

***
SMARTPHONE USERS WANT TO TALK TO THEIR DEVICES, says a new survey sponsored by speech-recognition vendor TellMe Networks. The survey says that three-fourths of people would choose a smartphone with speech-recognition and control features, while a similar majority wouldn’t be uncomfortable speaking commands into their phone in a restaurant.  Source

The bottom line: A survey sponsored by a speech-recognition vendor could hardly be expected to find anything other than interest in the technology, but as the features become more pervasive, awareness and usage would be expected to increase. There certainly are situations when speech commands make sense – in a car, for instance.

***

MORE THAN HALF OF SOCIAL NETWORK USERS HAVE BEFRIENDED A BRAND, says a recent report from eMarketer. Almost as many have said something positive about a brand on a social-networking site, while almost a quarter have said something negative.

The report casts some doubt on the widely held view that people don’t have a lot of interest in conversing with or “friending” companies, brands and products online. Source

The bottom line: While there’s a certain amount of apparent interest among social-networking users – or really, web users in general, in interacting with brands online, these figures shouldn’t be used by marketers as a justification to jump into social networking without a careful plan and strategy. This interest shouldn’t translate into free reign for companies to invade users’ personal online spaces, especially when there’s still a lot of room for them to damage their brands by doing so.

***

INDIA WILL BE A LEADING MOBILE CONTENT MARKET BY 2013, says analyst firm mobileSQUARED, generating $2.37 billion in mobile content revenues then, compared to $835.8 million this year. Additionally, the firm reports that the number of Indian subscribers will grow from 400 million now to 700 million by the end of 2010.

Leading the way in mobile content will be ringback tones, the firm says, with ringtones, graphics and wallpapers making big contributions. One major threat, though: Indian operators’ cut of content revenues, which the company says is normally more than 70% for on-portal content, or content billed through premium SMS. Source

The bottom line: The opportunity on the subcontinent is huge – but will the market move more quickly past the types of content listed above, and on to apps and ad-supported content?

No matter how you look at it (or who you ask) mobile search, the model that has effectively retrofitted Internet search for mobile devices, is riddled with shortcomings This was the message that came across in the interviews I conducted for Mobile Advertising Research UK, the presentations I and other search authorities made during the recent Mobile Search Masterclass in London, and, more recently, in the mobile search assessment white paper (Pump Up The Volume: An Assessment of Voice-Enabled Web Search on the iPhone) I co-authored with Peggy Albright. (DOWNLOAD)

Is mobile search broken? More importantly, how can we fix it? These are the questions I put to a variety of executives representing companies from across the mobile search and advertising business ecosystem. Read between the lines, and their answers – along with my own conclusions – point to areas of improvement and opportunity in mobile search.

MOBILE ADVERTISING RESEARCH UK

Primary research and C-Level interviews with agencies, brands, operators and third parties reveal mobile search is missing the mark. Their gripe: the poor quality of mobile search (specifically universal search powered by keyword queries and PageRank algorithms) is to blame for a lack of interest and investment in paid search advertising.

As a leading executive at a global brand put it: “Just between the two of us, our spend for search is by far not in the [single] digits yet – and it won’t be….We do a lot in mobile, but the basics of search are not yet at the level of sophistication consumers would expect from us.”

At the other end of the spectrum, agencies are far from upbeat about the short-term outlook for mobile search. As one managing director at a mobile marketing agency put it: “Just the way the content is indexed prevents advertisers from creating a cohesive plan to integrate search in their [mobile] advertising strategies. There is just not the volume to get in and really do some targeted search [advertising], and that’s what brands want: to make advertising personal and relevant to every search the consumer makes.”

Against this backdrop, many sources questioned whether the U.K. adspend figures for 2008 released by the Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB) – the trade body for digital marketing – and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) didn’t overplay the importance of paid search advertising.

The study – a U.K. first – shows that mobile adspend bucked all market trends, increasing by 99.2 percent year on year to reach GBP28.6 million. Mobile display advertising – which includes banners, text links, tenancies pre/post roll and in-game – accounted for GBP14.2 million in 2008, 49.8 percent of all mobile advertising spend, while paid-for search advertising was estimated to account for GBP14.4 million, 50.2 percent of all mobile advertising spend.

As Harry Dewhirst, Co-Founder & Operations Director of RingRing Media Ltd., an independent media agency in the U.K., pointed out during the conference Mobile Advertising Research UK and again in a private briefing with MSG: the amount spent on paid search (from his vantage point) is considerably less than display. The reason: mobile search is “not up to scratch” and fails to deliver people “information in a digestible format as quickly and as conveniently as they need it.” (During the conference Harry raised eyebrows when he identified mobile search as a chief obstacle to mobile advertising – period.)

Harry further tells me the poor mobile search experience means fewer people use search, and that has resulted in a “lack of depth” in search terms. While the terms “plumber” and “London” might draw crowds of online searchers, they can’t pack them in on mobile – yet. “And until they do, search queries will continue to be focused on branded terms like ‘Facebook’ and ‘MySpace,’ and used as navigation.” Despite these issues, Harry reports conversion rates for search are higher than display. “This indicates a positive future for mobile search advertising, but the repeat usage and quality of results isn’t good enough yet.” (Ironically, this sentiment is echoed and documented in the summary analysis of the Masterclass below.)

But there are some bright spots. Harry, who knows mobile search inside out from his previous experience at Medio Systems, a mobile search provider, gives high marks to Taptu, a socially-assisted service that tackles issues such as poor quality results and even worse rendering by summarizing the content/search results in a page that allows people to pre-screen the results before clicking. He is also upbeat about other vertical solutions such as directory assistance search services that are designed from the ground up to give searchers what they need on the move.

MOBILE SEARCH MASTERCLASS

A summer highlight for me has been participating for the second successive year in the mobile search masterclass, a course delivered as part of The City University London’s Masterclass series. Once again I joined an impressive roster of industry authorities from companies, and once again Colin Bates, CTO of Mobile Commerce Ltd., presented some amazing insights into mobile search usage, trends and behavior.

It’s worth sitting up to take notice because Mobile Commerce, like an honest broker sitting between all the major U.K. mobile operators and all the mobile search engines, effectively powers customers’ search boxes. In a nutshell, Mobile Commerce takes the search terms people type into operator portal search boxes and federates them out to a variety of information retrieval sources to deliver a results set made up of  regular Internet search results (Google, Yahoo Microsoft), specialist mobile search results (local search and a variety of verticals), and paid search advertising linked to keywords. Mobile Commerce also offers an increasing number of content owners/publishers a similar service through its Monetised Mobile Search solution, a plug-in service that allows client companies to put a search box on their mobile site and generate revenues from paid search advertising.

As a result, Mobile Commerce has an invaluable insider’s view into what people search for and the results they receive. The bottom line: Nearly 12 months on from Colin’s last presentation and mobile search is still (!) broken.

VOLUME

The surprise: mobile search volume has doubled and in some cases tripled. However, part of the reason for this meteoric rise could be Mobile Commerce’s own success in signing up customers (such as major U.K. newspapers and Virgin Media). Colin put it down to growth in mobile publishing and the number of publishers that placed a search box on their pages. [Hmm - will more publishers take charge of content (and advertising) by controlling the search box?] And let’s not forget the impact of the iPhone and other cool handsets that make the Internet fun to surf on our phones.

What are people searching for? The stellar growth Colin sees – partly because Mobile Commerce powers mobile search for The Sun – is in a category he calls “Glamor,” a term that comprises all the hot half-nude models (Page 3 girls) featured on the newspaper’s third page.

More people are using mobile search. Are they getting what the want?

In a word, no.

Colin’s road test of mobile search services offered by Google and Yahoo (similar to last year) makes it clear mobile search has a way to go. While the search engines excel in Internet search on a mobile phone, their mobile-specific results are – well – “rubbish.” A search for directory assistance delivers a link to the media relations department for World Aids Day, and a simple search for nearby post offices delivers a list of locations no longer in operation. As Colin put it: “The tools (such as Google Maps) are great, the data is out of date.”

Why are mobile search results served up by Internet search engines so poor?

1)    Mobile robots can’t spider the “mobile Web.” There is no sure-fire way to identify a site by URL (for a while .mobi or m.sitename. was a help). The advance of the iPhone and multi-mode sites that adapt content and change markup to match the incoming device type also muddy the waters.

2)    Indexing mobile pages – where information is dynamic, spread across multiple pages and impacted by user input and user-generated content – is a nightmare to index.

3)    The existence of data silos (such as downloadable content) and the lack of cross-linking data make it difficult to rank results and power PageRank algorithms.

4)    People have little say in their search results. On the Internet what we click on (or don’t) is important feedback (an indication of what we find relevant) that fine-tunes rankings and results. We do this on mobile too, but relevant results are often too many clicks away to be seen, used or appreciated.

PERSPECTIVES

Despite the many shortcoming of mobile search, people are using it more than ever before.

What are the drivers?

For one, supply. More players offer mobile search this year than last.

All the U.K. operators offer mobile search on their portals and an increasing number of publishers have also implemented Mobile Commerce solutions.

(In fact, this flurry of activity prompted Mobile Commerce to launch its Monetised Search service in the U.S., where U.K.-based search engine Taptu has signed up as the first client. Bob Last, SVP of Business Development at Taptu, said in a statement: “Working closely with Mobile Commerce since last year, Mobile Commerce significantly improves the availability of relevant ads for our users. The U.S. is our busiest market for mobile searches at Taptu and we are very pleased to be extending our involvement with Mobile Commerce to monetise more of this U.S. search traffic.”)

Demand is also a factor.

People are using mobile search – but it’s not the way they use it on the PC. It’s more about snacking, snippets and quick answers than research and information retrieval. This is what Mobile Commerce concludes (and proves) after a thorough analysis of search terms, search results and what people clicked. Because it powers the complete process it can make the connection between what people query and what they consider a valuable (accurate) result.

The company has developed a system of some 20 categories, ranging from Single User Search (which comprises all the Long Tail terms that literally only came up once in 12 months) to Social Networking (which accounted for a 16 percent of searches over the last year).

Connect the dots, as Colin did, and specific categories (such as Social Networking) are about navigation. In other words, people are typing them in order to find the mobile site. This is further supported by the dramatic dip in searches for Facebook plummet right around the time the social network launched a proper mobile property.

REVENUE

Mobile search may broken but paid search advertising – at least for a few categories – is paying dividends. Specifically, the categories Adult, Games and Personalization (downloadable mobile content) received the largest ratio of clicks against paid search adverts in the results set.

Read between the lines, and we have a confirmation of the pivotal role of paid search advertising in content discovery (a trend I have tracked and documented in articles such as this one for New Media Age – subscription  required).

Why should mobile content companies harness paid search ads to promote their content? Because it works. As Colin put it: “The mobile search model is broken, and publishers have very little control over how their sites appear in the results set – if at all.” In practice, using advertising – specifically text and banner ads – enables content discovery and drives results. It’s also cheap discovery since (at least in the U.K.) CTRs for display ads have tumbled from GBP 15 per CPM to “around GBP 5.”

The avalanche of mobile content – and now mobile apps – turns up the pressure on publishers and developers to rise above the noise and make their stuff findable and buyable. Until companies fix the bugs in mobile search, display and banner ads remain the only sure-fire way to get the message out.

BETTER MOBILE SEARCH

But publishers and brands don’t have to limit their focus to the usual suspects (Google, Yahoo, Microsoft). The real excitement is in search tools and technologies that make the most of mobile and even harness other people to improve the overall experience.

An example Colin offered is Shazam, which he described as “mobile content search without the box.” The phenomenally popular mobile music discovery provider grew from 20 million users (in September 2008) to 35 million worldwide (in February 2009), with over a million tracks now being tagged every day across the world. (Release) It has deployed by 75 carriers across 60 countries, and is a popular application in the Apple App Store, the Android Market and the BlackBerry App World.

In Colin’s view, “mobile-specific search tools” that enable made-for-mobile search (as opposed to universal Internet search) are bound to improve mobile search and make money for the companies that develop them.

In my own Masterclass presentation (and ongoing mobile search research) I have taken it a step further, identifying 10+ categories of mobile search and assembling a list of super-cool companies harnessing context, location and the wisdom of crowds to improve the precision of search results and the quality of our mobile search experiences.

A welcome addition to the list is Alabot, a mobile search provider based out of Pune, India, with offices in Kuala Lumpur and London. I first met Akshat Shrivastava, Alabot founder, at a mobile search conference, where I had the pleasure of presenting him with the Bronze in the category Best Technology Innovation – Software. Earlier this week Akshat sent me a DM via Twitter (@peggyanne) with the great news: Alabot has secured funding from a global innovation fund and sealed a deal with a Malaysian mobile operator to develop a multi-lingual (English, Bahasa, Chinese, Tamil) mobile content vertical search service.

The text search service will start off serving up ringtones and wallpapers from the operator’s online content stock, or “low hanging fruit” Akshat tells me is just the beginning. As he put it: “Content services that require a syntax or Internet access aren’t getting traction [in that region] because they are not intuitive or interactive.” Moving forward, Akshat tells me plans are to extend the service to other content verticals and expand reach via deals with several OEMs. Rock On!

SEARCH AS CONVERSATION

Strong demand for more interactive (translated: natural language search services) isn’t limited to emerging markets.

In North America, ChaCha, a people-powered search service that uses specially trained individuals ChaCha calls “guides,” has answered more than 150 million questions via mobile phones and the Internet, making it one of the leaders in SMS search.

Intrigued by the power and potential of voice search on the iconic iPhone, Peggy Albright and I recently completed Pump Up The Volume: An Assessment of Voice-Enabled Web Search on the iPhone, a performance analysis of voice-enabled mobile search services offered by Google, ChaCha and Vlingo (a spoken interface to the Yahoo search engine). Download the free white paper here.

A chief finding: ChaCha “proved superior” to the two other voice-enabled search options for the iPhone. Specifically, ChaCha proved to offer exceptional results, with its human guides interpreting the search query accurately in the majority of cases.

To be clear, the study was not a road test of speech recognition technologies. To evaluate the overall performance of voice-enabled mobile services offered by ChaCha, Google and Vlingo for iPhone with Yahoo!, the researchers asked a series of 18 queries representative of six typical mobile search categories (Navigational, Directions, Information Local, Information General, Social, and Long-Tail). For each query the researchers evaluated nine performance characteristics including response time, results accuracy, voice recognition accuracy, number of results received, keytaps required, relevancy of the result, location awareness, use of advertising, and presence of other value-added features.

According to the study, ChaCha interpreted natural language search queries, that is, queries asked as questions, accurately in 94.4 percent of the tests and delivered an accurate search result in 88.9 percent of cases. The Google voice recognition technology interpreted queries accurately in 16.7 percent of tests and delivered accurate search results in 22.2 percent of tests. The Vlingo for iPhone voice recognition technology correctly interpreted queries in 72.2 percent of cases and delivered accurate results (via Yahoo!) in 27.8 percent of tests.

A clear finding that emerged is the importance of people-power. As Peggy Albright pointed out: “The use of human agents [by ChaCha] to help interpret spoken queries and conduct searches makes a positive difference in the quality of results delivered when compared to traditional search engines that use algorithmic software to find requested documents or information on the basis of keyword matches.”

In the report I also identified a key advantage ChaCha has over its competitors: Its keen focus on social search, an approach that effectively infuses human preferences and human judgments into computer algorithms to pinpoint truly relevant information and potentially better answers.

Beyond tipping the scales back in favor of results that are relevant rather than search- engine optimized, social search also lays the groundwork for a conversation with people on their terms, paving the way for the delivery of mobile advertising that is relevant and more likely to be appreciated.

MY TAKE:

Universal mobile search has significant shortcomings, weaknesses that brands and agencies tell me has convinced them to put paid search on the back burner. (There are exceptions: Colin from Mobile Commerce reminds us that for some segments – specifically mobile content – paid search is a potent means to encourage content discovery.) We have a choice: we can wait for providers to improve universal mobile search, or we can harness tools and technologies to deliver a better experience NOW. An obvious and excellent alternative is social search, often called “people-powered search” because it harnesses people to deliver results tailored to searchers on the basis of who they are and what they like. The interviews and insights collected in this analysis outline where mobile search misses the mark and reveal a huge opportunity for companies (such as ChaCha) that give a personal touch to search results (a perfect fit with the mobile phone, which we’ve already established is an intensely personal device).

It’s still in the early days, but the place and the power of people in mobile search is clear. As the worlds of mobile search and mobile social networking collide, they produce opportunities for companies to tap the community – both implicitly and explicitly – for much better quality results and the delivery of much more relevant advertising.

Disclaimer: The complete report is available for free download from MSearchGroove. This white paper is published by MSearchGroove. It contains the findings of independent research and analysis carried out by Peggy Albright, Albright Communications, and Peggy Anne Salz, MSearchGroove in January 2009. The research methodology was developed by Peggy Albright. The research was sponsored by ChaCha. The opinions expressed in this white paper are those of Peggy Albright and Peggy Anne Salz, and do not reflect the opinions of the organizations referenced in this paper.

Related reading:

Context, Social Media, And Cool Interfaces Rock Mobile Search; MSG Teams Up With mTrends To Map Out The Brave New Landscape

Mobile Search Masterclass: How Google & Yahoo Really Measure Up; Is Paid Search The Path To Discovery?

Mobile Social Search Makes Its Mark; Will Group Searching, Sharing & Collaboration Take Social Networking To The Next Level?

EXCLUSIVE & EXPLOSIVE: New People-Powered Mobile Search & Advertising Solution Puts Mobile Operators Back In The Driver’s Seat; Will Search Giants Have To Watch Their Backs?

Will Tapping The Wisdom Of Crowds Outsmart Mobile Search Giants?

Regular readers will recall that MSG was commissioned to conduct Mobile Advertising Research UK, a project research endorsed by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and the Mobile Marketing Association (MMA), to expertly document the state of the mobile advertising industry in the U.K. and identify growth opportunities in the emerging mobile advertising marketplace.

The report — which combines valuable consumer insights gathered by ÆNEAS Strategy Consulting and Management (coordinated by my esteemed colleagues Tarik Fawzi and Atva van Zanten) and qualitative research based on more than 20 interviews with operators, enablers, agencies and brands contributed by MSG — marks the first in a series of region-specific reports that will include Germany (2009) and North America (2010).

During the inaugural event (Mobile Advertising Research U.K.) last week in London, Tarik and I presented an overview of key findings (documented by MSearchGroove here) and revealed the results of an online survey of over 1,000 British. consumers. Pricing is GBP 2,999 ($4,866) for the report, and a 500 GBP discount is available for MMA/IAB members, and people who attended the event. For more details, click here.

And speaking of reports, I am pleased to announce that I will provide a sneak-peak at the results of a performance analysis of voice-enabled mobile search services from search giants Google, Yahoo! & ChaCha during a special Mobile Search Masterclass in London on June 30.

By way of background, this course is part of The City University London’s Masterclass series, a collaboration between the giCentre and the Centre for Interactive Systems Research at the University. It will be run for the second year following from feedback last year and is endorsed by the Mobile Data Association (MDA). Registration is GBP295 and the organizers tell me there are still a few seats available, so email Mark Firman (mfirman@soi.city.ac.uk) to reserve your place.

The complete findings will be released in July, but I can say that ChaCha, a fast-growing SMS mobile search service available in the U.S., “proved superior” to two other voice-enabled search options for the iPhone: the Google Mobile App with Voice and Vlingo for iPhone, a voice-enabled application that allows users to direct their spoken queries to Google or Yahoo! For the purposes of this study, Vlingo provided a spoken interface to the Yahoo! search engine.

To evaluate the overall performance of voice-enabled mobile services offered by ChaCha, Google and Vlingo for iPhone with Yahoo!, we asked a series of 18 queries representative of six typical mobile search categories (Navigational, Directions, Information Local, Information General, Social, and Long-Tail). For each query, we evaluated nine performance characteristics including response time, results accuracy, voice recognition accuracy, number of results received, keytaps required, relevancy of the result, location awareness, use of advertising and presence of other value-added features. The study further took into account that a service could deliver its search results in the form of answers (as ChaCha offers) or as links to Web pages (which Google and Vlingo deliver); for each query tested, an accurate result could be achieved in either form.

In addition to going over some high-level results, I will also present an overview of the mobile search landscape, focusing particular attention on the 10+ categories of mobile search gaining significant traction, including multimodal (voice/visual), mobile vertical search (music/games) and social search, a people-powered search approach that effectively infuses human preferences and human judgments into computer algorithms to pinpoint relevant information and better answers.

This presentation is based on the work I did with Rudy De Waele, blogger at mTrends and dotopen founder, in preparation for a workshop on Mobile Search Future Prospects organized by JRC IPTS (Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commission).

Other masterclass speakers and sessions will examine a range of topics and developments, including: mobile search statistics and surveys, key trends and developments, location services and search user interfaces and usability, and the range of content and advertising monetization models involving mobile search. I’m honored to join an impressive roster of industry authorities from companies including AmbieSense Ltd., a provider of ambient search services; Microsoft Research (Cambridge); g8wave Ltd., a mobile marketing company; and Mobile Commerce Ltd., a provider of location-based services that also possesses what the founders call a “piece of enablement” that gives them deep insight into the search queries passed through the operator portals in the U.K., and the results set returned to the user. This central position, combined with the company’s prowess in search advertising, makes MC a top address for the inside track on the quality of the mobile search experience offered by Google and Yahoo!, as well as their ability to deliver relevant results to users’ queries.

Last year, the case studies and analytics provided by Colin Bates, Mobile Commerce CTO, data also reported on MSearchGroove, provided invaluable insight into the most popular categories of mobile search queries and what users really want from their mobile search experience. The eye-opening observation: “Users are grazing, not researching. They are looking for time-fillers rather than facts, and they are using search boxes for site-finding rather than data-finding.”

It will be exciting to explore how mobile search has moved on and discuss where it is going. If you plan to attend and would like to meet up or catch up, please contact me directly (peggy@msearchgroove.com) or arrange an appointment with Andrea Henninge (andrea@msearchgroove.com). I hope to see you soon and will circle back with analysis after the event.

The bottom line: As illustrated numerous times within this section, the data dominance and superior browsing experience allowed by smartphones is undeniable.  Making mobile Web user experience smooth, easy, and compelling – as these handsets often do – is shown to consistently drive mobile data traffic.  That many consumers probably can’t tell and don’t care about the difference between mobile websites and HTML sites is also testament to technical developments.

***

GARTNER SAYS THE NUMBER OF MOBILE PAYMENT users will increase by 70 percent this year.  Its report claims that 73.4 million users of mpayment in 2009 would represent a leap of 70.4 percent from 2008.  By 2012, it says mobile payment will reach more than 190 million, more than 3 percent of total mobile users worldwide, attaining a level at which it will be considered “mainstream.”

Gartner defines a mobile payment as paying for a product or service using mobile technology such as a short message service (SMS), Wireless Application Protocol (WAP), Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD), and Near Field Communication (NFC). It includes transactions that use cash, bank accounts or debit and credit cards, as well as non-carrier stored value accounts, such as travel cards, gift cards or PayPal. It does not include transactions that use mobile operators’ billing systems, such as purchase of mobile content or telebanking by mobile to the service center via an interactive voice response (IVR) system. Source

The bottom line: Although the definition of mobile payment is ambiguous here, these figures demonstrate that the mass market is slowly growing confident in using their mobile to pay for and transfer money.  Much effort has been made to foster consumer confidence in the micropayment mobile payment space, and the adoption of mobile banking technologies still varies drastically from region to region.  There are regulatory and security challenges to overcome, particularly with the emergence of NFC technologies, but these figures give strong reason for hope.

***

SPEECH APPLICATIONS ARE TO TRIPLE by 2014 according to a new Datamonitor report. The report claims that as we get used to using mobile computing devices in ‘hands-busy’, ‘eyes-busy’ environments, speech recognition technologies are expected to gain considerable traction. The global market for advanced speech recognition (ASR) in mobile handsets will increase from $32.7 million in 2009 to $99.6 million in 2014. Meanwhile ASR in-vehicle telematics is expected to grow from $64.3 million in 2009 to 208.2 million by 2014. Source

The bottom line: An exciting array of new voice applications has been promised for some time now, without seeming to gain mass market adoption.  This Datamonitor report suggests the market is still full of potential, and with technologies emerging to intuitively allow users to control device functionality with their voice, these projections may herald the beginning of significant penetration.

Peggy adds: A space to watch is voice-activated mobile search, where “Just say what you want,” the guiding principle of voice search to avoid complex and confusing navigation, and to provide a shortcut to information (in the network) and services (on the mobile device) the user wants, is particularly compelling.

***

OPERA’S MINI BROWSER RECORDED MORE THAN 23.4 million users worldwide in April, a jump of 140 percent from the same period one year ago. Page views in America grew 129 percent over the last year; unique users grew 11.8 percent; and there was an average of 198 page views per user in April. U.S. carrier subscribers are said to be viewing more data-intensive pages than those in any other country. Opera said the average page viewed is about 32KB compressed (almost 320KB uncompressed).

Top 10 sites accessed via Opera Mini in the U.S., by number of unique users:

1. Google.com
2. Facebook.com
3. MySpace.com
4. Wikipedia.org
5. YouTube.com (up from 7)
6. Yahoo.com
7. NYTimes.com (down from 5)
8. AccuWeather.com
9. My.Opera.com
10. ESPN.com

Source

The bottom line: The mobile Internet is continuing to see heavy usage and mass adoption, although we should remember these figures are largely coming from BlackBerry handsets operating Opera. The handsets do have massive appeal, as clearly does mobile Internet content.  However, we might also remember that, as a corporate device of choice, their users may not always be paying the bills

***

AN AENEAS STRATEGY STUDY OF U.K. ATTITUDE TOWARDS mobile advertising found that 64 percent of consumers would grant permission to receive mobile advertising if they were incentivized.  The majority of the 1,002 consumers surveyed had a more negative initial attitude, but this changed if advertising was made relevant (65 percent positive), permission was asked (67 percent positive), or if the consumer was in control (69 percent positive). It placed mobile amongst the most popular traditional media (print, outdoor, and television) and above the Internet and radio. 

The research also revealed that 52 percent claim engagement with the brands they love is important, five advertisements per day is most accepted by consumers, 52 percent of consumers doesn’t mind listening to a brand message while waiting for someone to pick up the phone, and 54 percent would send an interesting offer they have received to  friends and family

Tarik Fawzi, of Aeneas Strategy Consulting and Management, commented: ”The consumer research shows some unexpected results regarding consumer attitude towards mobile advertising. Also mobile is compared with other media. This shows consumers know what they want and are open towards mobile advertising, if it is offered on their terms.” Source

The bottom line: This study shows once again that relevancy and control of mobile advertising are critical to its consumer acceptance and success.  The challenge mobile advertising faces is in making campaigns relevant, and offering control, but still maintaining a strong enough number of eyeballs to keep brands spending.

Peggy adds: This consumer research will also be discussed during Mobile Advertising U.K. (June 15 in London), when MSG, which was commissioned to research and write the report in collaboration with Aeneas, will present key findings from interviews with 15+ industry executives and influencers.

***

41 PERCENT OF U.S. CONSUMERS ARE LIKELY TO PURCHASE a multimedia handset with a data plan as their next phone, says a new study by the Yankee Group. BlackBerry and Apple are the top two brands, considered by 44 percent and 30 percent of prospective buyers, respectively.

Meanwhile, in enterprise, the same analyst claims that 75 percent of small to medium businesses anticipate some reduction in their business technology investments due to the economy. End-user software and hardware are the two areas that will experience the biggest budget cuts. Source

The bottom line: These two nuggets from Yankee illustrate the ongoing consumer affair with smartphones, and the rich data consumption experience they allow, in the face of predictable technology cutbacks which the environment has imposed on smaller businesses. It’s tough out there, but consumers remain enthused about compelling mobile data experiences, if the data plan is right.

While Yahoo comes to the party more or less six months later than rivals such as Google, there is some indication that the wait was worth it if we consider that this service extends beyond allowing people to conduct keyword searches (for flight numbers, locations, Web site names, local restaurants – the works). People using the app can also use voice to customize the ‘My Interests’ tab. The procedure (according to the press release): “Simply click on ‘add anything’, speak the topic you’re interested in, then select the relevant content and add it to your page.” The Yahoo! oneSearch with voice application is currently available on more than 80 different devices and across platforms including Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile, and now the iPhone – with support in eight languages.

Various bloggers have tried out the voice app, which harnesses speech recognition technology from Vlingo, and reported mixed results. But it’s difficult to judge the user experience based on random road tests. (This is why MSG has pooled its resources to produce mobile search research that, like my own mobile advertising white papers, offers readers a balanced assessment based on first-hand experience and solid methodology.)

The Yahoo app, however, comes in too late to be included in Pump Up The Volume, MSG’s own assessment of Web search on the iPhone. But that won’t keep us from conducting our own road test of the Yahoo app soon. Regular readers and Twitter followers (@peggyanne) may recall I announced the project a while back (a teaser before we had further refined our methodology to account for fundamental differences between natural language and keyword search, an important improvement that makes the results all the more compelling).

The white paper, researched and written in collaboration with Peggy Albright, MSG Associate and founder of Albright Communications, will be released next week. By way of background, our work assesses the overall performance of the voice-enabled search services offered by ChaCha, Google, and Vlingo in a typical range of use cases and scenarios. (Vlingo for iPhone converts queries into text and submits them to one of two search engines, Google and Yahoo. We chose Yahoo.)

A special highlight: A foreword by Bill Meisel, Editor of the specialist publication and voice technology knowledge destination Speech Strategy News. I’m honored to have him on board for the voice search white paper, and look forward to showcasing his analysis/columns on MSG soon.

I won’t divulge all the white paper results and stats here. However, I can say that ChaCha’s  results proved superior to both the Google Mobile App’s voice feature and Vlingo for iPhone.

ChaCha uses human agents to transcribe and interpret/answer search queries (spoken as questions). However, we found the performance of voice recognition alone does not determine nor predict the accuracy of a search result. Indeed, one search provider exhibited high voice recognition accuracy but still had difficulty delivering the intended search results regardless of query format.

Some background on the methodology of this defining work, which will be available for free download.  We created 18 queries representative of mobile search usage and trends. The queries covered search categories considered common in the mobile environment, such as navigation (to a specific Web site), directions, local information, general information on timely topics, and specialized or unusual long-tail topics (sometimes referred to as “dinner table” questions). We also included specific queries that represent the most popular mobile search terms in 2008, based on mobile search data publicly reported by AOL and Yahoo. Recognizing that the search engines used in the Google Mobile App and Vlingo for iPhone services are built from the ground up to handle keyword search – matching documents/information on the basis that they contain one or more terms (keywords) – we conducted a second set of tests using keyword queries.

Peggy and I are proud of the research and look forward to collaborating together on future mobile search assessment reports and work contracted by our various clients. I will keep you posted of our progress on MSG.

A key takeaway I want to leave you with: This white paper provides evidence that mobile social search – which harnesses human judgment, thus restoring balance in a model that tends to promote search engine optimized websites over destinations the user may find genuinely relevant and useful – has significant advantages over algorithmic computer-centric search approaches. As I have pointed out in this earlier analysis, in the case of the mobile phone, an intensely personal device we have with us at all times, a more people-centered approach represents a perfect fit with our search behavior and our expectations for a more personalized service. Indeed, the rise of mobile social networks further underlines our increasing requirement for search services that effectively inject human preferences into the equation. This, itsmy.com CEO Vince Staybl, recently told me was the primary motivation for the tie-up between his mobile social networking service with socially-assisted search engine Taptu, and I fully expect many more such partnerships to follow.

Disclaimer: ChaCha is an MSG supporter and white paper sponsor. The opinions expressed in the white paper are those of Peggy Albright and Peggy Anne Salz, and do not reflect the opinions of organizations referenced in the paper.

At the other end of the spectrum, this shift in mindset also turns up the pressure on mobile search providers to develop services that are (likewise) more useful, engaging and personal. Indeed, improving the mobile search user experience is at the center of a sustainable and successful mobile search and advertising strategy. Users are encouraged to explore the wealth of content and applications at their fingertips, and their urge to discover leads to more queries and more opportunities to deliver paid search advertising. It’s not quite the fixed Internet all over again, but there are similarities.

The outcome is a virtuous cycle where useful search results and targeted advertising convince users that mobile search is a useful way to find content and applications that matter to them. What’s more, the advance of app stores (similar to the excitement the industry experienced when content portals were the rage) underlines the critical importance of a better interplay between search and advertising moving forward.

I am therefore encouraged by improvements (from companies such as Yahoo), and excited by the increasing popularity of new mobile search paradigms, ranging from multimodal search (which has received a much-needed boost thanks to the iPhone); to approaches that integrate human input/judgment to deliver search results we’re much more likely to appreciate. (I am currently compiling a comprehensive directory of mobile search providers, so please contact me to be included. If your story is interesting, I will also profile your company on MSG.)

A category of mobile search high on my radar is visual search. (Companies include: Idée, IQ Engines, Kooaba, Mobile Acuity, Searchme, SnapNow and SnapTell.) I am pleased to report I am close to confirming a date for a podcast with Philipp Schloter, Nokia’s general manager of Point & Find. Nokia (which MSG covered here) just last week took the wraps off a new beta of its visual search service. The technology is cool but the real excitement is about the fit with mobile marketing campaigns. As Julian Pate, Client Partner at interactive marketing agency AKQA, put it in a statement: “The Nokia Point & Find service marries the digital world with the physical world in a way that actually has meaning for brands and consumers. Not only does it allow consumers to engage with brands in an innovative way but provides brands ‘point and purchase’ opportunities with an on-the-go audience.”

This same value proposition is echoed by SnapNow, a U.S.-based visual search company I profiled in my regular column for EContent magazine.

In it I examine the proliferation of pilots and projects that harness mobile to hyperlink images and items, enabling consumers to access information, make purchases or just browse the Web for similar cool content, by simply snapping a picture using their cameraphones. I also interview Tony Keaveny, Head of Sales for SnapNow UK, who updates me on what the company is doing to “snap-enable” content ranging from print to video.

As Tony puts it: “Your phone becomes your mouse and the world around us becomes the Web. It’s about transforming print, packaging, video, outdoor, or just about any other advertising into a portal enabling communication and – more importantly – commerce.”

Tony walks the talk, which is why he has also kindly offered to “snap-enable” the MSG logo, which means you can get more information about MSG by taking a picture of the logo with your cameraphone and sending it to pic@snapnow.co.uk. I’ll think of a contest to make it worth your while. In the meantime, this is  great (!) because MSG is in demand as a media partner and now you can connect to MSG via the  logo on brochures and posters  at industry conferences such as the Open Mobile Summit, June 10-11 in London, a top-notch industry conference organized by OpenMobileMedia, where I chair the session on mobile advertising.  I invite you to read the column here – and to explore the other great content at EContent.

On a personal note, I am proud to be a contributing editor and look forward to collaborating with Michelle Manafy, EContent Editor-in-chief on a special social media issue sure to set the bar. More about that when I put out a call for pitches here and on Twitter (@peggyanne). Michelle is also the programming chair of Information Today’s Enterprise Search Summits (ESS), annual events that encourage deep discussion and practical analysis of the search space. The next one is May 12-13 in NYC. This week Michelle wraps up Buying and Selling EContent Conference, an event that brings together leading executives knowledgeable in the techniques for buying and selling content. She gives her views on the marketplace and the role of user-generated content in this pre-conference audio interview.

But visual search is just one of the 15 categories I have identified in the process of compiling a comprehensive overview and SWOT analysis of the major mobile search players, together with Rudy De Waele, Mobile Web 2.0 luminary and founder of dotopen, an open innovation consulting firm advising start-ups and established companies helping them define business models, forge alliances and pursue funding opportunities.

Our work is in preparation for a workshop on Mobile Search Future Prospects organized by JRC IPTS (Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commission), an organization providing customer-driven support to the EU policy-making process.  The purpose of the workshop next week in Seville, Spain, is to identify mobile search trends and recommendations for policy makers. I cannot attend the event, but look forward to publishing a summary analysis of key points raised during the workshop on MSG.

Connect the dots, and mobile search innovation is shaping up to be a major focus in 2009.

The last word on the increasing importance of mobile search comes from Nokia (via AltSearchEngines.com). During his presentation Anssi Vanjoki, Executive Vice President of Nokia’s new Markets unit, told the audience mobile is the future of search. (Hmmm…Does this conviction mark a new chapter in Nokia’s own mobile search strategy? It’s a topic I’ll raise in my upcoming podcast…)

Overall, the report is a good read. It covers all the bases, from mobile ad revenue predictions to estimates for mobile search revenues, and it recounts the results of a road test (Google vs. Yahoo) to determine (literally) which provider is getting more bang for the buck when it comes to paid search.

Indeed, mobile search performance is at the top of my radar as Peggy Albright (founder of Albright Research, and MSG associate) and I have just wrapped up a white paper comparing mobile voice services available on the iPhone. More importantly, we have moved into the final phase of our Mobile Search Performance Report (MSPR), an industry-first quarterly report documenting the mobile search experience across a range of geographies, operators, and search engine providers, providing insight into the key performance metrics, such as click-distance and mobile advertising relevancy.

While I may have my issues with some of the Bernstein report findings, there’s no arguing the fact that Google controls a sizeable share of the U.S. mobile search market,  despite the fact the search giant consistently delivers a poorer user experience (an observation based on MSPR findings as well as those reported by Mobile Commerce during a recent Mobile Search Master Class).

Based on brand reach research (number of visitors to a search property divided by the estimated total of visitors ever to access the search category  in a month) and comScore estimates (as reported in September 2008), Bernstein Research reckons Google had 62 percent of the U.S. market in January 2009. Yahoo came in second with 30 percent, and Microsoft’s Windows Live finished third with 11 percent.

Listen to the podcast here. [19:21]

Against this backdrop, Bernstein estimates that mobile search revenues in the U.S. will grow from $20 million in 2008 to $910 million by end-2012. (Much lower than the numbers I’ve seen, so the truth must lie somewhere in the middle.) In contrast, mobile advertising revenues are set to skyrocket. Bernstein figures revenues will grow from $160 million in 2008 to $2.3 billion by end-2012. It further projects that global revenues will grow from $700 million in 2008 to $7.2 billion by end-2012.

But the real news is Google’s algorithm for success. Google’s strategy of “pulling through” users from its PC platform to mobile appears to be paying off big-time. Google is not only benefiting from user habit (users tend to visit the same brands and destinations they know from the PC Internet, with Google leading the pack); it’s able to keep all the cash from paid search advertising. As the report points out: “Google has not made to our knowledge any agreement to split revenues with the carriers. Google is possibly also gambling upon intensifying carrier competition and a favorable political climate to drive through de facto ‘wireless net neutrality’ and avoid splitting its revenues with the carriers altogether.” (Think it through. It’s an outspoken observation – and possible outcome – that should have alarm bells ringing in carrier boardrooms…)

At the other end of the spectrum, Yahoo and Microsoft focus on paid default placement (a strategy of negotiating to have their search engine app pre-loaded on the mobile deck so it is available as the default). Unlike Google, the search engines split their paid search advertising revenues with their mobile operator partners. (Yahoo with AT&T and T-Mobile and Microsoft with Verizon.) It’s a strategy to which I give high marks because it potentially encourages a more robust and healthier business ecosystem. However, Bernstein doesn’t seem to share my long-term view. It focuses on the here and now, concluding that Google’s strategy of winner-takes-all “will result in significantly higher margins” than Yahoo and Microsoft.

But a closer look (and an excellent podcast with Jeffrey) reveals good reasons to watch Yahoo over the next months. Vast improvements to mobile search and an exciting set of mobile apps are a boost to Yahoo’s popularity and potential for growth. (More on my take after I hear back on my request for an in-depth briefing to connect the dots in the raft of recent announcements, so watch this space.) Bernstein thinks Yahoo has “already overtaken Google.” The challenge now is to “translate this gain into superior financial performance with advertisers.”

As Jeffrey put it in the podcast:  “To Yahoo’s credit; Yahoo has improved enormously in mobile search recently. And clearly, its applications are resonating more with users. Now that may ultimately translate down the line into a more favorable share, so possibly, going with Yahoo might end up being a good strategy provided Yahoo can keep its momentum going and keep improving. Probably at this minute, it seems that the worst choice for the carriers would be to go with Microsoft, which is where Verizon has gone.”

Among the highlights:

GOOGLE WINS?: Sure seems that way. As Jeffrey puts it: “Even though competitors have preferential placement through deals, and even though competitors may have apps that consumers say they prefer, Google’s still winning.” Why? Brand reach is a big part of it. “What we’re seeing with Google is: That without compelling people in any way – you don’t have to sign up a contract to use Google, you don’t have to pay Google anything, you just use it if you prefer it -  people, in 60 percent of the cases, will just elect to use Google.”

VODAFONE & YAHOO: “After analysis and results, and we’re doing some more user surveys at the minute which we think will probably confirm [our view]: Vodafone might actually be wasting their money.” Drilling down a bit more Jeffrey says “Vodafone might not be wasting money in the sense that they’re doing a deal with Yahoo, it just that they probably could have done better with Google had they selected Google under very similar terms.” (A tall order indeed if we consider Google doesn’t split paid search revenue. (I later asked Jeffrey to look at it from the operator perspective. Does it pay to give it all to Google? Listen in and let me know what you think.)

ANDROID: It’s a fail as far as Jeffrey is concerned. The bad news: The apparent collapse of the Android Alliance and the surprisingly low brand reach of Google among G-1 users have dealt a tough blow to Android. The good news: It doesn’t seem to matter. “Android strategy doesn’t seem to have been a success, but it hasn’t hampered Google’s outcome.” The pull-though strategy – picking up users who repeat their PC behavior on their mobile phones – has paid off.  We should keep in mind Jeffrey is talking about the trend in the U.S.  No doubt users in emerging markets that have leapfrogged the PC altogether are likely to be a little harder for Google to simply “pull through.” What’s more, MCN tells me user preference in Japan and much of Asia favors content and commerce over search results.

OPENNESS & OPERATORS: “I think it boils down to the control mindset with the operators. The operators need to feel control, and it depends whether you would accept a lesser degree of control and a lot more money, or you want a higher degree of control and get nothing.”

My take: It depends on where you are in the value chain. For investors, it’s enough to know Google’s paid search pays dividends. But the mobile search road test Bernstein uses to determine the effectiveness of paid search strategies employed by Google and Yahoo also highlights an important factor that could play in Yahoo’s favor as more people do more with their mobile phones.

By way of background, Bernstein road tests Google’s approach (giving prominent placement to ads) and – based on the Google Ad Traffic Estimator – estimates what the advertiser had to pay Google for the top-notch spot. Yahoo, on the other hand, has organized its apps into a carousel that gets high marks on user experience, but makes it tougher to show ads.

Read between the lines, and this criticism may actually hold the essence of Yahoo’s longer term competitive advantage. Its paid search strategy correctly tends to emphasize the quality of the user experience over the quantity of paid search ads that could be delivered. As the report points out: Yahoo favors delivering a good user experience over “overt monetization via display ads.”

But is that really a shortcoming? Doesn’t delivering a better user experience ultimately solve the monetization issue? A better user experience means more users, more searches and more opportunities for brands and mobile advertisers.

And let’s examine the premise that the end-game is about displaying ads at the top of the results list. Many companies – including those that support Every Single One Of Us – are beginning to question the fit between PC advertising methods and our intensely personal mobile devices (and the metrics we use to measure their success/failure).

User experience or prominent placement? Which makes for a more sustainable business model over time? The jury is out on this one – so please share your ideas and insights.

Disclaimer: MSG has been chosen to undertake the Mobile Advertising U.K. research project on behalf of Every Single One Of Us; MSG is an Every Single One Of Us Collaborator. MCN has been an MSG supporter.

Gearing up for a whirlwind week in Barcelona for Mobile World Congress. Coverage on MSG will be thin (not enough time for deep-dive posts) but I assure you my follow-up analysis and in-depth video interviews will be worth the wait. Andrea Henninge – bless her! – has managed to squeeze in dozens of top-level interviews/briefings over the next five days at an average rate of one per hour – and even left me some time in the evenings for a few parties and get-togethers.

Top of the list is the launch party (Tuesday) for the Netsize Guide 2009, the 360-page mobile industry almanac I wrote on behalf of Netsize. Stan Chesnais, Netsize CEO, tells me it is the best one ever, and has already commissioned me to write next year’s (although we both struggle to think how we can top this one!).

If you are at Mobile World Congress (MWC), then don’t forget to pick up a paper copy. After the show, you can also download it for free on MSG. I look forward to your comments and feedback. I will continue to pursue this exciting theme (the morphing of the physical and virtual worlds with the mobile device at the center of this new convergence) on MSG, so watch for podcasts and video interviews that take this discussion to the next level.

And speaking of path-breaking, this week mobile search providers Taptu and Abphone debut their white papers on MSG.

(You can download the Taptu white paper by clicking the banner further down on the right-hand side, and you can find abphone’s white paper here.)

I am honored that both companies asked me for input. In the case of Taptu, it’s a comment. Abphone, on the other hand, asked me for a complete foreword.

In fact, Pierre Scokaert, Abphone CEO, sent me a personal email to thank me for my work:

I did read your foreword, and found it very good. It adds a lot of weight to our paper, and having someone as highly regarded as you speak of Abphone is always an honor.

However, I am equally grateful for the opportunity to lend my voice to his – and would like to take the opportunity here to thank Pierre and Yann Mondon, who heads up Abphone’s public relations.

Abphone

I don’t want to give away too much - and before my podcast with Pierre on precisely this topic – so here’s a short, high-level summary of the white paper, titled Snacking the Web.

In a nutshell, a shift in mobile search behavior (search has become a leisure activity, pursued in idle time and short sessions, and made popular by cutting-edge devices such as the iPhone) impacts how services can/should rank search results and determine relevancy. Abphone’s approach emphasizes click stream analysis, effectively drawing from the wisdom of crowds to determine which results users find relevant to the search queries, and ultimately improve rankings for future users.

In my view, this path-breaking approach borrows heavily from the insights outlined in Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software by Steven Johnson. Ants, Johnson writes, are not intelligent as single insects. But they develop a kind of collective intelligence – which he calls “emergent intelligence” – when they are interconnected in complex colonies.

In the case of mobile search, a single searcher, like an ant, can happen upon an excellent result. But there is no way for the searcher to leave a trail to benefit searchers who follow. As a result, each searcher must endure the same process (click distance) to find content they want. Abphone learns from its users, creating a feedback loop that potentially improves rankings for future users to deliver an overall positive user experience and help people find content they want in fewer clicks.

Allow me to close with my favorite quote from the abphone white paper: Pierre’s rant on Web transcoding

Take a gourmet meal, prepared by capable chefs, using only the finest ingredients. Then put everything in a blender and mix it into a pulp, as long as you need to, until you can drink it through a straw… This is what website transcoding is like.

I like it so much I have just added it to my slide deck for my presentation for the Qualcomm Plaza Internet Forum. The event now counts some 70 top-level attendees, and I am honored that Qualcomm feels the jump in attendance is due to my participation in it. Everywhere there are signs that MSG has indeed reached the tipping point…

Taptu

I am also proud that Taptu has decided to debut its white paper, titled Touch Search: A New Vision For Mobile Search, on MSG. True to the name, the white paper examines the shift in mobile search since the advent of the iPhone.

However, Taptu does more than acknowledge this trend; it has responded with a roadmap to encourage the innovation that content providers and brands agencies will require to deliver an optimized search and advertising experience for touch devices. I’ll have more on this next week, after I have had the pleasure of meeting today (Monday) with Andreas Bernstrom, Taptu COO, and had a closer look at the Taptu’s prototype search services for the Touch Web.

A highlight of the white paper is this trio of industry predictions. (Methodology is explained in the white paper.)

1)      Total global mobile search volume will grow rapidly from 63 million searches per day at the end of 2008 to 620 million in 2012 – almost 10 fold growth in just four years.

2)      The volume of searches from touch phones will grow even faster, to overtake the volume of searches from normal phones by the end of this year.

3)      By 2012, over 75 percent of all mobile searches will come from touch phones alone, representing less than 10 percent of the installed base of phones and just 20 percent of annual shipments.

A root question to consider: Will we have one Web (the Internet)? Or two (the Internet, and made-for-mobile sites)? Or three! (the Internet, the mobile websites, and the Touch Web)…

No one has the answers, but Taptu is preparing now for the challenges ahead.

My thanks again to Steve Ives, Taptu CEO, and Bob Last, Taptu Head of Business Development, for providing me the opportunity to contribute to the white paper.

Voice search

Finally, I would like to take this opportunity to give you a sneak peak of the next white paper in the pipeline: a joint project with Peggy Albright,  founder of Albright : Research : Media, assessing the performance of voice search services on the iPhone.

The white paper – which roadtests ChaCha, Google, and Vlingo — will launch in the week following MWC and be available for download on MSG. I have already twittered about some of the findings (they were too amazing to keep under wraps)…

Let’s just say that Google underwhelmed us – on all counts.

Disclaimer: ChaCha sponsored the white paper. The opinions in the white paper reflect those of Peggy Albright and Peggy Anne Salz, and do not reflect the opinions of the organizations referenced in the research.