In brief:

The avalanche of apps and app stores (nearly 70, according to WIP Connector) turns up the pressure on developers and other ecosystem parties to find ways to make money selling apps. How are apps discovered and promoted? And more importantly, how are these app emporiums and boutiques going to handle the simple CRM to encourage the all-important return purchase?

After all, it wasn’t so long ago that a study from Pinch Media, which analyzed over 30 million downloads from Apple’s App Store, reported that just 30 percent of people who buy an iPhone application actually use it the day after it was purchased. And the numbers plunge from there: after 20 days, less than 5 percent of those who downloaded an application are actively using it.

A lot of open questions. But one thing for certain: competitive differentiation is in the business model. And we know from the findings of a recent Netsize Mobile Trends Survey of +1,000 professionals and practitioners that the 4-Cs (Convenience, Compatibility, Choice and Charging) are key requirements for a winning app store (and so for the developers that hope to make a living selling their apps). Netsize is gearing up to release new (unpublished) survey results and a new report that reveals attitudes toward business models and what will enable real and significant app sales. Watch this space!

MAXIS, ONDEEGO & AMDOCS

What is the app store landscape and what are the monetization models?

This was also the topic at Mobile Web & Apps World Forum, a CTIA partner event organized by my esteemed colleague Ajit Jaokar. (Again, I congratulate Ajit on organizing a standing-room-only event dedicated to answering the tough questions around app fragmentation, monetization and how to make it all work. Thanks also for inviting me to speak during the SuperSession looking at mobile advertising and in-app opportunity moderated by mobile authority Chetan Sharma. It was an excellent session with Joe Lally from MTV Networks and Jerry Rocha from Nielsen and Gary Schwartz, CEO of Impact Mobile, and one that provides a great deal of material for future MSG analysis and follow-up.)

However, it was the session on personalization and content discovery, presented by Mike Lurye, Amdocs Interactive, Director of Product Marketing, that got people thinking about the business value of granular subscriber intelligence (anonymized) and ways it can be used to get consumers to the content they will appreciate and without making them search for it. To drive home the point Mike didn’t use marketing-speak. He used case studies from mobile operators in the U.S., Europe and Asia Pacific. (You can download all the speaker presentations here.)

I used the opportunity of our in-person meeting to discuss the larger issues around app store marketing and pick up on a fascinating conversation we had weeks earlier (in preparation for Mobile Monday Austria) delving into the tough choices facing developers.

Certainly, developers can jockey for position in the Apple App Store (and others), where getting featured (placed where people can find you easily) is the only way to build a business. But developers can also align themselves with retailers/operators that seek differentiation through innovative business models emphasizing customer service, easy discovery or local culture.

The latter works for Malaysian mobile operator Maxis. I am a great admirer of the carrier’s app store focus and mission: “to nurture and foster interesting developer applications for our community.” (This and more in this must-see video interview with Nava Wathan, Director 1Maxis, Maxis Communications.) Maxis has become the place to go for “something that is Malaysian.” Surely, many more mobile operators can pursue a similar strategy to stand out from the crowd (and build a successful business for their business ecosystems of developers and customers).

At the other end of the spectrum, Ondeego also “gets” it. It launched AppCentral, a mobile app store for the enterprise last fall becoming the first mobile application store meeting the unique needs of the enterprise workers and their IT departments. For enterprise employees a one-stop shop means that they can select what they need (serious apps) to do their job. For developers it means a channel to a difficult to access market and a chance to sell their productivity and enterprise apps direct to professionals who will likely buy.

PODCAST INTERVIEW WITH MIKE LURYE

First, credit where credit is due here. Although people have tweeted about the simplicity and originality of my views on the evolution of the app landscape and the marketing strategies that will help everyone make money, it was Mike who came up with the popular Supermarkets/Farmers Markets analogy.

I caught up with Mike in-person following the Web & Apps World Forum event to talk about marketplaces and ideal models for making money – now.

Here an excerpt:

APP STORES & STOREFRONTS: “The main difference between an app store and a traditional digital commerce storefront is actually not that it sells apps, but that it is based on a certain business model that’s been pioneered by Apple. Stores selling apps have been around for a very long time but Apple changed the game because they set up a business model that opened up the opportunity to get to market for a much broader range of developers and they did so by establishing very straightforward business terms that are the same for everybody.” But not all app stores must sell apps. China Mobile, for example, sells traditional digital merchandise (ringtones and wallpapers and so on) on the storefront they call their app store.

MAXIS MODEL: This mobile operator has cleverly defined the segment it will go after: the local population and local developers. “So, their store is never going to be very big, they acknowledge that. They are not trying to compete, they are trying to co-exist….This is a good strategy because when you know your customer and when you know what you want to offer to your customer that is valuable to them, and you know who is going to build it which is a local developer community, you are poised for success.”

FARMERS MARKETS: The close customer relationship is what makes a farmers market special. And mobile operators have a close customer relationship they can build on – if they recognize their real role. “The owner of the farmers’ market doesn’t get in between [the] transaction…There is a direct [customer] relationship and the owner of the farmers’ market acts as a facilitator. They make it work.” How? Through payment services, personalization insights and scale.

CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH: If you are about to pack, think again because it may have peaked. Apple found gold in apps and now everybody is moving to California (literally). “Now, guess what, not everybody who came to California at the time of gold rush became rich, some people did, but most actually didn’t, so that is what is going on right now. Everybody and their brother wants to have an app store; some people have a well thought out strategy. Maxis is an example of that. Some people are doing essentially a ‘me-too’ kind of a thing, and there is actually nothing wrong with that in principle as long as you realize that that’s what you’re doing.”

WHITE LABEL: Mike says it’s a low-risk model. The not-so-good news: it’s unlikely to build subscriber loyalty. “There is no leverage of the operator’s unique capabilities, there is no more value for the subscriber to purchase an application in that app store versus the original app store from the white label supplier themselves. There might be some cost advantage…but fundamentally it’s not a model that will differentiate the operator.

TAKE A PAGE FROM AMAZON: Personalization has made Amazon a success. “This is the business they are in: the business of personalization. They are offering it now as a platform to others. You do that search, you bring results not only from Amazon, but [also] from Amazon’s competitors and that’s OK by Amazon because they build such a sophisticated platform that now empowers [the] ecosystem.
***
MY TAKE: Are we on the brink of new business models or is history repeating itself? And — even if it is very much a repeat of the mobile portals – what will guarantee success for the developers and retailers this time around? At the moment, developers have a handful of choices: boost word-of-mouth promotion (tough and tedious, which is why Mob4Hire’s peer app recommendation is an interesting one to watch), mobile advertising (complicated and unpredictable, which is why we are all searching for better ways to deliver the right advertising to the right demographic) and placement (tricky and transient, which is why GetJar has cleverly created a model where developers pay for shelf space). What role will personalization play (even in a pre-paid environment)? My ongoing research into recommenders brings me together with mobile operators already wringing value out of granular analytics to help people discover content they’ll likely appreciate. A prime example is Hong Kong’s CSL, an operator I showcase in my upcoming report, that has harnessed personalization to support My Net, its own (branded) mobile Internet service. Clearly, personalization is moving up the business agenda (as it should) because it’s a way mobile operators can generate revenues (helping people find and buy what they want) and stay in the game.

* * *

LISTEN TO THE PODCAST HERE: [13:00]

Disclaimer: Netsize is an MSG supporter. Amdocs is not an MSG supporter.  However, ChangingWorlds, a company acquired by Amdocs, has published a by-lined thought leadership column series on  MSG. Peggy Anne Salz has also spoken at invitation-only  thought leadership events organized by Amdocs for its operator clients.

I outline the key data points and takeaways further down in this post.

But the real story is the insights the report gives us into winning players and strategies (that is, who will be selling the most and how).

APP DISTRIBUTION AND APP STORE PROLIFERATION

Chetan documents a real and gradual shift from on-deck stores (translated: mobile operator offerings) to off-deck plays that are primarily DD2C (Developer Direct 2 Consumer) – potentially the toughest kind of sales pitch for developers more adept in tech than marketing.

Indeed, developers are going to need some help with that. Little wonder that Patrick Mork, GetJar VP Marketing, singles out app payment and in-app advertising and reveals these are the next features/functionality in the GetJar pipeline. (Smart! It’s all about making it easier for developers to make money from their apps).

And then there are the regional differences that Chetan has expertly uncovered.

Particularly in emerging markets, the mobile apps- mobile advertising business ecosystem has become robust enough to provide developers added revenue. It’s a big business if we consider that Asia, with the lowest pre-paid subscriber rates, also accounted for 37 percent of global downloads.

Overall, Chetan estimates advertising based revenue accounted for about 12 percent of the overall revenue, but that figure is projected to rise to 28 percent by 2012.

Finally, the report confirms two observations that run through my own research and writing like a leit motif: the business imperative to improve content discovery and the potential for a Long Tail of app stores (not just an “app for that” – but an app store for that!).

Farmers Markets and Supermarkets? I’ll have more on that scenario later this week when I catch up with Mike Lurye, Director, Product Marketing, Amdocs Interactive, to explore the characteristics (choice, convenience, payment, personalization) that can potentially separate the leaders from the also-rans.

GETJAR PODCAST

But first the highlights from my podcast with GetJar’s Patrick Mork, who was instrumental in guiding the research project from the start. We discussed the report numbers that really stand out and the business model strategies they support.

HYPERLOCAL: Developers will need to adapt their business models to the regions. Direct sale of apps in developing markets versus ad-supported schemes in emerging markets. This divide spells fantastic opportunities in mobile advertising for companies that can tap them. (One reason why GetJar is gearing up to launch a partnership with a major advertising company to enable this scenario everywhere.)

THERE CAN BE ONLY A FEW?: GetJar CEO Ilja Laurs is bullish about the outlook for a fortunate few stores that have the right capabilities mix (GetJar among them. Of course). In his view: “There is no way that this many app stores will survive in the long term and while the value of the global app economy is set to be astoundingly high by 2012, we think only a few app stores will share this revenue.” Why? Patrick puts it down to the virtual nature of commerce in an app store. “In a virtual economy such as the app economy retail is different and you don’t need that many players.” The selling point is relevant content and app stores that have this – and consumer traffic – are in the winners’ circle. Another reason why only a few may survive: “Developers have finite resources…. They are resource-starved and will therefore only work with a few app stores because they won’t have the time or energy to work with many of them.” (After all, he adds, it can be a pain and drain to open accounts with multiple stores, connect to the back-end systems and upload the content. “Our value proposition continues to be that GetJar is a one-stop to upload it in one place.)

APP SHORTCUTS PAY-OFF: Patrick and I finally got the chance to discuss the runaway success of app shortcuts, literally shortcuts to mobile websites. Put simply, brands and content companies can promote their mobile website as if it was an app(!) Before you dismiss it, consider this: Facebook counts a whopping 45 million downloads of site shortcuts via GetJar. That number beats their iPhone app downloads by a mile!

Listen to the podcast here. [15:32]

My take: The app economy has officially arrived. In 2009, app downloads worldwide were approx. 7 billion with Asia accounting for a whopping 37 percent of the total. Total downloads are forecast to skyrocket to almost 50 billion in 2012 – a year on year growth rate of 92 percent. This would mean that the value of apps sold would be greater than the value of CDs sold in 2012 ($13.83 billion). But we shouldn’t break out the champagne just yet. The business models are unclear, the market is fragmented and real success is linked inextricably to local and regional market conditions. The hard truth: It’s not a single market and one-size-fits all app schemes won’t deliver. Will app stores be on-deck (operator managed) or off-deck (direct-2-consumer)? Or will there be hybrids? Will the prevailing model be paid apps or ad-supported apps? Or will it be a mix? I’m not avoiding the question when I say ‘all of the above’ and everything in-between. Chetan’s report paints a buoyant picture of a young market (“the proliferation of apps in many directions”) and hints at the key capabilities that will clinch the deal for app stores and there developers.

The bottom line: We need more engaging and creative approaches to mobile advertising in those markets where this model will rule (emerging markets). And we need the various channels of mobile advertising (messaging, Web, search and coupons/barcodes) to work together more tightly. Finally, content discovery is an issue the industry must recognize and solve.

In closing a positive – and possible –scenario (from Chetan) if we get this right: “Connectivity breeds apps. It is a given that as consumer electronic devices become wirelessly connected, consumers are looking to download apps on those platforms. Apps download on the iPod have been every bit of a success as they have been on the iPhone. Similarly, we will see a significant uptick in the apps for devices such as the iPad, telematics platforms in vehicles, digital cameras, navigation devices, picture frames, weight scales, and the list goes on and on. These apps will entertain and amuse consumers, analyze data on the devices, connect users with content and friends, and will interconnect various end-points in the pervasive mobile ecosystem in a much more profound manner.” It’s shaping up to be a great space indeed!

Overall, Smaato’s metrics show that the average worldwide ad network fill rates remain constant at 29 percent in February 2010. The fill rate is measured as the percentage of ads delivered per ad request and varies by different factors, like country, device, content type.

Smaato’s Index also provides a breakdown of CTR data, segmented according to operating system, showing that Symbian continues to lead the pack, with Android a distant second. However, there are some significant shifts that indicate the gap between operating system CTRs could be closing fast. For example, BlackBerry comes in at 51, up from 30 in December 2009, while Symbian – still the dominant operating system – has dropped slightly. It comes in at 147, compared with 173 in December 2009.

However, the biggest surprise is the lead Windows Mobile has over Apple. Specifically, the iPhone and iPod Touch show a declining CTR, coming in with a rate of 89. This is the first time Apple devices have dipped below the average Index of 100, and the first time that Windows Mobile has edged ahead of its rival. In December 2009 the iPhone posted a CTR Index of 119, sliding to 104 in January 2010.

PERFORMANCE

Overall, the best performing mobile ad network in the Smaato Worldwide Index had a fill rate of 72 percent February 2010, down 17 from January. Despite this decrease, the average for worldwide ad network fill rate performance remained steady at 29 percent. What’s more, Smaato found that six of the top ten ad networks performed above this average. This re-enforces the pivotal importance and potential advantages of the network aggregation business model. Smaato embraces the model (aggregating 35 ad networks worldwide) to deliver partners a high fill rate.

By way of background, the first metrics report, which Smaato released in January, identified the mobile networks in the U.S. that delivered the best performance by name. This month’s metrics don’t divulge the identities of the best-performing ad networks in the U.S. – but I can imagine Millennial Media is in the winner’s circle (again).

Speaking of the U.S., the average fill rate of mobile ad networks in the U.S. hovers at 35 percent, a decrease compared to January 2010 (fill rate – 47 percent) and December 2009 (fill rate – 55 percent). However, closer examination shows that the U.S. fill rate is still significantly higher than the worldwide average fill rate of only 29 percent.

Smaato metrics further show that the two top-performing ad networks in the U.S. also improved their fill rate. One network came in at 78 percent (up from 68 percent in January) and the other reached 64 percent (up from 61 percent in January).

SPOTLIGHT SOUTH-EAST-ASIA:

For the first time Smaato metrics examine fill rates in South-East Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines), markets where mobile marketing and advertising are buoyant. Overall, the fill rates reveal that two ad networks are performing head and shoulders above the others, coming in with 90 percent and 87 percent fill rates in this region. Overall, the fill rates show a similar spread to those recorded in the U.S.

South-East Asia’s average fill rate of 32 percent is considerably higher compared to that of India’s, which came in at a mere 8 percent in the January Smaato metrics report. As Smaato CEO & Founder Ragnar Kruse sees it: This demonstrates the large differences across the Asian market and the need for developers to search for different partners or a mobile aggregation and optimization service.

The breakdown of the CTRs by operating system in this region provides an interesting and insightful picture of what devices users have and how they interact with mobile advertising.

Interestingly, the iPhone and iPodTouch dominate the region with a CTR Index of 164 followed by Symbian (127) and Android (124), while Windows Mobile comes in at the bottom of the table with 56.

PODCAST SERIES BACK BY DEMAND

In addition to providing us the inside track on what Smaato sees across its network of partner ad networks, the company is also sharply focused on cultivating a robust mobile advertising business ecosystem in which in can play a leadership role. To this end Smaato also dedicates significant resources to identify and encourage mobile advertising pioneers and innovators.

A prime example of this is the Smaato Mobile Advertising Award, which recognizes excellence in the mobile advertising and developers harnessing mobile apps and the mobile Web that can also be tapped to deliver compelling messages and campaigns to consumers worldwide.

Among the top three winners – chosen by a world-class jury of leading influencers of the mobile community including MSearchGroove – were: Aloqa, a U.S.-based mobile service that proactively notifies people of interesting places, events, music, movies and other activities nearby; Waze, an Israeli startup that taps the wisdom of crowds to provide real-time maps, traffic information and turn-by-turn directions; and Yoose, a provider of mobile coupon and loyalty programs based in Germany.

To showcase these high-flyer companies and their views on industry hot topics including engagement, location services, mobile couponing and crowd-sourcing Smaato has collaborated with MSearchGroove to produce a special podcast series showcasing the three company CEOs. In the interviews, which originally aired in time for the Mobile World Congress in February, the executives also comment on the meetings with eight top-notch VCs – high-level introductions that are part of the Smaato Award.

***

Listen to the Waze podcast with CEO Noam Bardin here. [4:38]

Listen to Yoose podcast with CEO Christian Geissendoerfer here. [4:44]

Listen to the Aloqa podcast with CEO Sangeev Agrawal here. [4:43]

My take on the winners and the trends: Mobile advertising is content, and its value to us is inextricably linked with its ability to entertain us, inform us or simplify our lives. Waze harnesses our personal mobility and our position as nodes in a larger network to tap the wisdom of invisible crowds to deliver tangible benefits combined with a super-cool user experience.

Location isn’t the killer app we thought. But an app that combines location awareness with technology that can read the clues we leave behind – to passively personalize our experiences and present us with precisely what we are likely to appreciate based on our likes and dislikes — AND offer brands and nearby establishments a chance to monetize that fit – covers all the bases to be a crowd-pleaser.

Another trend that impacts mobile advertising is the avalanche of software applications (apps) that have transformed what we do with our devices. As our focus shifts from novelty to utility we will vote with our feet, visiting those websites that allow us to do what we want, quickly, easily and intuitively. Therefore, Aloqa, which ties together location, social media and a push-approach to local search, is well-positioned to benefit from our increasing focus on finding what’s important to us nearby. The clever decision to open APIs to third-party publishers ensures that Aloqa will cover the long tail, which is where the money really is in local in the first place.

And finally, a comment on Yoose. We know from looking at Japan and Korea that mobile coupons and mobile commerce can be part of our daily mobile experiences – provided the experience is seamless and simple. Yoose has developed more than a website; it has perfected a work flow that could move couponing out of the chasm and into the bowling alley.

Moving forward, Smaato will join MSearchGroove’s growing roster of contributors and collaborators.

Disclaimer: Smaato is not an MSG friend – but not a partner/supporter.

I suspect his thought-provoking blog will do more than set the tone for my book; it will impact the app store debate that will likely dominate 2010. Just look at the recent raft of app announcements: Analyst firm IDC predicts there will be more than 300,000 iPhone apps by the end of next year, compared to 75,000 Android apps; Samsung takes the wraps off its Bada app platform; and (just today) Orange officially opens its app store to users in the U.K. and France, offering more than 5,000 apps for Java, Android, BlackBerry, Symbian and Windows Mobile.

Connect the dots, and the avalanche of apps turns up the pressure on providers and mobile operators to be good retailers and put stuff we’re likely to appreciate where we can find and buy it. Common sense really.

Or is it? Not is we consider the statement from Nenad Marovac, Managing Partner, DN Capital, who was speaking at Heroes of the Mobile Screen earlier this week, In his view, “Operators should be pipes and shut up.” Hmmm… not much room in that model for mobile operators to wield the stockpile of analytics they collect (such as our browsing patterns and past purchases) to present us with a selection of apps we’re likely to appreciate.

In preparation for my own industry report on personalization and recommendation I have spent the last weeks interviewing a who’s who of industry players and their customers (mobile operators/service providers) who are convinced  the company with the most (and best) data wins. It’s a battle between operators (really smart pipes) and aggregators (Google & Co.) – and personalization and recommendation could just be the capabilities that distinguishes the leaders from the also-rans.

With that in mind, we continue MSG’s special podcast series on the top players in personalization, and conclude with Part 2 of my interview with Stephen Oman, Amdocs ChangingWorlds Worldwide Director Sales Engineering. Changing Worlds is an Irish provider of personalization technology that was recently acquired by Amdocs and is now part of Amdocs Interactive.

In Part 1 we dissected the content discovery dilemma, looked at on-portal challenges and examined the results of the company’s recent study that underlined the importance of personalization in determining and delivering mobile advertising.

In part 2 we explore personalization off-portal and across app stores.

ROLE OF THE MOBILE OPERATOR: As Stephen sees it: the operator has a spot at the “center of the Internet.” Their job: “helping the subscriber to go on to the Internet, helping them find the right content, helping them with additional suggestions which they might be interested in, and so on.  In doing that, they’re becoming if you like a partner to the subscriber when they are browsing the internet.” So, there’s an opportunity here for the operator to “set themselves up in essence as the home page for the mobile Internet for their subscribers.”

APP STORES: In many ways, it’s a repeat of the content discovery problems we know from on-portal. But it’s also an issue that independent developers will also face as they try to engage people and compete with similar, rival apps across the store. As Stephen puts it: Making an effort to personalize the content will “help people find more niche types of applications that may exist, and that would never appear in the what’s hot today or what’s in the top 10 for today.”

LONG-TAIL VERTICAL APP SCHEMES: Reports show that many apps downloaded are actually productivity apps. Additionally, apps are being downloaded by professionals in line with their professions. So, will we see a plethora of app stores split across lines such as task (apps to do “x”) or jobs (apps for doctors, for example)? Stephen was intrigued by the idea and agrees that we will likely see the launch of vertical app stores (similar to the vertical content portals that offered only ringtones or wallpapers). “It’s pretty much the same as you see in retail, you do have retail stores that sell pretty much everything, but you also have niche retail stores that cater for particular audiences.”

THE GROWTH OPPORTUNITY: In a word: convergence. “Increasingly the mobile operators’ customers are expecting and demanding that if you like connected lifestyle….Crucially, they’re looking to be able to access services across many different devices: their mobile phone, online, through their TV, through digital TV, and that convergence of access is essentially going to improve and drive growth in the mobile digital economy.”

Editor’s note: This special focus on personalization and recommendation continues in the New Year with a look at a cool new recommendation company coming out of stealth mode and an analysis of Novarra. I had to reschedule this one a few times, but this time it is timed to some important news. Not one to miss!

Disclaimer: ChangingWorlds is not an MSG supporter.  However, MSG has published a by-lined thought leadership column authored by a ChangingWorlds senior executive. MSG has also participated in an invitation-only  thought leadership event organized by Amdocs.

Listen to the podcast here. [15:12]

Related posts:

PODCAST: ChangingWorlds Reveals Real Impact Of Personalization On Mobile Advertising CTRs; Google Shows Mobile Advertising Is Hot (Again), But Will Personalization Make The Market Sizzle?

SPECIAL REPORT: GETTING PERSONAL Openwave Adds Mobile Analytics; Are Gateway Providers The Ones To Watch? PLUS New Report/Project With GigaOM Pro

PODCAST: Bytemobile CMO Adrian Hall: Operators’ Can Win On Personalization; Does A Widget Bar Do One Better Than An App Store?

MSG DEBUT VIDEO: Xiam Talks Targeting & Filtering; Make Way For The Personalized Web!

GUEST COLUMN:Using Personalization To Pump Up The Volume & Increase The Value Of The Mobile Internet

In brief:

Mobile Groove — the monthly podcast I produce with Inma Martinez, leading digital media strategist, “free radical” and advisor to venture capitalists — is back. This time we kick off with a hard look at Nokia strategy and question the wisdom of its decision to sue Apple.

NOKIA, APPLE & DOPPLR

Do shareholders see value in lawsuits?  We also piece together the logic behind the quick, quiet (and we think clever) acquisition of Dopplr, a social network company that lets members share personal and business travel plans and exchanging travel advice. Shame that Nokia’s marcomms did such a miserable job of communicating the real value of this move, leaving it to the likes of Tech Crunch to speculate and miss the plot. Are we on the mark? Listen in and let us know.

FLIRTOMATIC

Picking up on the last program (where Inma salutes Mark Curtis and his team at Flirtomatic) we look examine the company’s tremendous track record and recent expansion into the U.S.

By way of background, the freemium flirt and fun service (with 1.5 million users and operations in the U.K., Germany and Australia) announced an agreement in late October with U.S. flat-rate carrier MetroPCS that positions Flirtomatic as the preferred mobile social networking service on the operator’s Mobile Web Portal. According to Flirtomatic stats, Flirtomatic mobile users log in around seven times and send over 30 messages each day, resulting in over 30 million messages each month and over 160 million WAP page views.

Why is Flirtomatic on a roll? One reason is Mark’s pragmatic approach to mobile. As Inma puts it: “Buzz is dead!” Mark didn’t drink the Kool-Aid – and neither did we.

I’ll have more from Mark when we connect for a special podcast series looking at the line-up of companies that won the Smaato Mobile Advertising Award 2009 (Flirtomatic, Aloqua, Waze, Yoose and SPBTV).  My personal thanks to Neil Robertson from IF Communications for his help lining up audio interviews and his good work keeping me in the loop with Smaato and other companies in his growing roster of clients.

START-UP WOES

Matthäus Krzykowski over at VentureBeat (@matthausk) caught our eye with a Tweet (to the world, not us) asking why funding is tougher than ever to get. Inma reviews her deal flow to recount the mega investments in mobile. Her take: 2009 is the year that the Valley woke up to mobile. So, why is Europe in a slumber? Listen in and let us know what you think.

GOBLET OF ROCK

This time we change the format to salute companies and sectors that rock. Inma’s pick: Spanish start-up LemonQuest, a global publisher of mobile games and personalization products for network operator portals. The real news (via PocketGamer): “LemonQuest is planning to launch an ambitious massively multiplayer mobile game in the fourth quarter of this year, after recently acquiring a Chinese firm with the necessary technology (and 240,000 registered players).”

Researching the next Netsize Guide has brought me in contact with some cool companies in Augmented Reality (namely, GeoVector and Layar). Since I also focus the chapter on the future of mobile on image search and recognition, I must also toast Kooaba, a company I have followed since the start.

Until next time – keep it fun!

Listen to the lively podcast here [17:47].

The Mobile Groove series:

PODCAST: Mobile Groove Continues With Blyk’s Media Strategy, Spotify’s Chances Against Apple, What Women Really Want PLUS Cool Startups From Mobilize & Seedcamp

PODCAST: Thought-Provoking Mobile Groove Series With Inma Martinez Debuts Today; Offers Inside Track On Industry Disasters, High-Flyers & What’s Highest On Investor Radars

When I first met Inma Martinez at Mobile 2.0 Europe I was struck by the depth of her knowledge and the strength of her determination to speak her mind. I made the decision to work with her at some level. A few in-person meetings in London (where she is based) and many Skype chats later we are proud to take the wraps off Mobile Groove, a monthly podcast series here at MSearchGroove that will provide short, digestible and insightful commentary on what’s hot in news, investments and developments impacting the mobile space at all levels.

Mobile Groove will air on the last Friday of every month and consist of three thought-provoking segments: The Big Picture, a wrap of the month’s news and views; Street Groove, an informed discussion of the companies and technologies sure to rock the mobile space; and The Radar, a roundup of talk on the street and what is highest on investors’ radars.

OUTRAGEOUS & INSIGHTFUL

The first in the series kicks of with a look at the the rise and fall of ad-funded MVNO Blyk, the controversy surrounding voice-to-text provider Spinvox and an in-depth look at the key platform players (Apple, Google and Microsoft) – specifically the news via Taiwan handset makers that Microsoft plans to adopt a dual platform strategy to promote its Windows Mobile OS (operating system) and, thus, take aim at both Android- and iPhone-based platforms.

Inma, who stands out as an über-connected advisor to venture capital firms, also gives us the inside track a new fund by entrepreneurs for entrepreneurs that may spell relief for European startups and smart people with brilliant ideas.

We joined forces to provide industry commentary and insights on the top market news in the mobile industry. But it doesn’t mean you can’t get involved. We welcome your ideas, suggestions and elevator pitches. DM us on Twitter(@mobilegroove)or email us at mobilegroove@msearchgroove.com.

Listen to the podcast here. [22:25]

A ROUND OF THANKS

And finally, thanks (again!) to Inma, for the energy and excellent ideas. Thanks to Annette Kramer, a Stradbroke Partner and presentation coach, for her kind offer to do the intro and outro to our podcast series; and to Alfred DeRose, Brian Avery and the team of professionals at Tego Interactive, a company helping to build businesses – including mine – through converged Web and mobile solutions. The company has been instrumental in creating some new features and functionality (including a mobile site) for MSearchGroove, with more soon to come, so please check back regularly.

And a special thanks to RealWire, an MSG partner and supporter whose global news release distribution service (specializing in the online media and mobile) consistently delivers reach, audience and exceptional analytics. MSG uses RealWire for all press releases, and I recommend you do the same.

For now our podcast will be accessible via the MSearchGroove web site home page. In September Mobile Groove will also be available for download via a dedicated iTunes channel.

Regular readers will recall that MSG was commissioned to conduct Mobile Advertising UK, a research project research endorsed by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and the Mobile Marketing Association (MMA), to expertly document the state of the mobile advertising industry in the U.K. and identify growth opportunities in the emerging mobile advertising marketplace. The report – which combines valuable consumer insights gathered by ÆNEAS Strategy Consulting and Management (coordinated by my esteemed colleagues Tarik Fawzi and Atva van Zanten) and qualitative research based on 20+ interviews with operators, enablers, agencies, and brands contributed by MSG – will be formally released in July.

In the meantime, allow me to share some of the key findings and data points based on an online survey of 1,000+ UK mobile users. (And please follow along in the complete presentation below via SlideShare, and listen in to this audio interview via The Really Mobile Project, where I put some of the stats into perspective.)

At a glance:

• Today the mobile advertising market in the U.K. totals nearly GBP 30 million ($48 million).
• Mobile advertising accounts for only 0.16 percent of the total advertising market – which is where Internet advertising was in 1998.
• ÆNEAS Strategy forecasts that mobile advertising will see accelerated growth in four years and so account for a significant portion of advertising spending. Drivers include: A calculated growth rate of 99 percent in 2008 vs. 2007; the overall shift towards digital advertising; and increased demand for targeting, reach, and a medium that -like no other – allows advertisers to identify and track unique visitors. (For more on this unique capability and the benefits I encourage you to read my own road test of mobile analytics solutions.)
• Only 32 percent of those surveyed have a positive attitude about receiving advertising on their mobile phone. However, 64 percent said they would accept advertising is they are properly incentivized, and 70 percent said they would accept mobile advertising if they are incentivized AND in control.
• The majority of those surveyed felt 5 advertising messages per day was the limit of what they would accept.

Unsurprisingly, youth are most familiar with mobile advertising channels (specifically rich media such as MMS and in-game advertising (approaches we know from the likes of Unkasoft). What’s more a whopping 84 percent of youth surveyed has a positive attitude toward mobile advertising if incentivized. The bottom line: Acceptance of mobile advertising is right up there with TV and other more traditional media IF we can get our head around what incentives to offer and develop the mechanisms that put people in control.

No clue on the right incentives, but it’s not a given that companies need to offer cash to capture people’s attention. In the fireside chat I recorded with Rory Sutherland, Ogilvy UK Vice Chairman, we discuss the value of branded utilities and life-simplifying services. Will people accept advertising if the pay-off is less stress/more convenience? It sure looks that way!

Rory Sutherland audio interview

A highlight for both me and the audience was the entertaining and educational fireside chat with Rory, whose interest in -well – us and the finer points of behavioral psychology brought much-needed balance and big-picture vision to the discussion. As he points out in this recent opinion column in New Media Age: The job at hand is to use ideas to turn human understanding into business advantage. During our interview he made it clear that mobile is a medium perfectly suited to achieve just this goal. (Listen to the audio interview here. It’s 28:40 – but time flies when you’re having fun – and this sheer genius!

A few excerpts that made us think:

YES WE CAN!: Mobile can change people’s behavior – primarily because it takes the heavy-lifting out of doing things we might not do otherwise. Case in point: Charity. A moment of “epiphany” for Rory was the huge response to SMS campaigns asking for donations, although we have assumed that youth is not a demographic to give so generously. As he put it: “If this technology can change behavior that significantly, then who cares how good it is at advertising. Advertising is about changing opinions as a half-way house to changing their behavior.” The bottom line: If you can change people’s behavior from the get-go with mobile, then it deserves a top-notch spot in our campaigns.

LIFE-SIMPLYING: Rory’s message: Don’t dismiss branded utility because it’s unglamorous. Being brandedly useful is key. (And here is an example from Rory’s Twitter feed that illustrates this approach. The IBM Scout is a branded app that helps people get the most out of the Wimbledon 2009 Championships, providing live coverage of just about everything.

COUCH POTATOES: Let’s face it – many of us are. Rory figured this out when he was watching a line of cars at a drive-in ordering fast-food. Not one got out of the car to order at the counter – even though it was empty. Connect the dots, and it’s clear we are all a bit lazy. Apply this observation on basic human behavior to mobile and you have a powerful combination indeed! We will likely reach to the medium at hand (the personal device we have with us at all times) because it’s more convenient. “Channel preference almost trumps brand preference.” Some people may prefer Pizza Hut, but if they can order from Dominos by text, then they will likely switch for this reason. The bottom line: “Modality and modal preferences seem in a weird way to trump other things.”

WHAT’S THE POINT?: We have lost sight of what mobile can do. (A point that also came out in the research I conducted.) We’re hung up on old models and enamored of new technology, and we are missing some big opportunities. Imagine using text campaigns to encourage impulse savings instead of impulse buying. Or how about a brand that simply harnesses mobile to improve listening? As Rory pointed out: “Advertising is talking and listening. That’s a perfectly reasonable form of marketing, and mobile brilliant and you can do it in real-time.”

METRICS: We have become prisoners of our own metrics. To show us how ridiculous our obsession has become, Rory compares media buyers to alcoholics. “Alcoholics buy booze on a single metric: How much alcohol do I get per pound (GBP), and this is how media buyers buy media.”

MOBILE MATTERS:  “Mobile has been the medium of first resort and dangerous to neglect it which is probably why Google has been scared. Search has been the first place you go on the Web and mobile preempts this in some respects.”

By way of background, Rory’s bio:

Born in Usk, Monmouthshire in 1965, Rory read Classics at Christ’s College, Cambridge, before joining Ogilvy as a Graduate Trainee in 1988. After 18 months spent as the world’s worst account handler (as a desperate remedial measure he was once booked onto a time management course, but got the date wrong) Rory became a copywriter in June 1990. He has worked on Amex, BT, Compaq, Microsoft, IBM, BUPA, easyJet, Unilever, winning a few awards along the way. He was appointed Creative Director of OgilvyOne in 1997 and ECD in 1998. In 2005 he was appointed Vice Chairman on the Ogilvy Group in the UK in recognition of his improved timekeeping.

By an amazing stroke of luck (his brother is an academic) Rory first used the Internet in 1987. Hence he had the advantage in 1994 of knowing what it was and what it might do a few years ahead of many colleagues. Most people would have combined this knowledge of marketing and technology to make a fortune; not Rory. Instead he became the first Briton to have his credit card details stolen online, thereby losing £22.45.

In his spare time, Rory collects self-aggrandizing job titles. He was President of the Direct Jury at Cannes in 2007, and was elected President of the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising in 2009. He is also the Technology Correspondent of the Spectator, the world’s oldest English language magazine. At quiet moments in the proceedings over the next few days you may like to pay a furtive visit to his blog at http://snipr.com/da9bq

Rory is married with twin daughters of 7 (Hetty and Millie) and lives in the former home of Napoleon III in Brasted in Kent. Unfortunately in the attic.

Listen to the podcast here.

Read between the lines, and GyPSii goes one huge step beyond the slew of location-aware, mobile social networking services we’ve see up to this point. Sure, it allows people to instantly capture and share what they are actually doing, building a multi-media virtual diary on their world – the places they have been and the things that they have done.  But it also allows people to search (and find) these places/people/experiences with their mobile phones.

I am immediately reminded of the key theme of the Netsize Guide 2009, a milestone mobile almanac that represents an exciting (and on-going) collaboration with Stan Chesnais, Netsize CEO, who steered me in the direction of the next mega-trend in mobile: The blurring of the barriers between the virtual and physical worlds.

But it’s more than an adrenalin-driven vision of the future. As we described in the book (which I urge you to download via the MSG sidebar), it’s happening now, and examples range from Ford’s super-cool use of augmented reality in a mobile marketing campaign, to visual search/advertising schemes supported by SnapNow, to GyPSii’s little known business model, which is all about indexing the world around us for the delivery of relevant advertising and services we can’t yet imagine. (I hadn’t had the pleasure of meeting with GyPSii at the time I wrote the book, but you can bet it has a top-notch spot in the 2010 Guide!)

Shortly before GyPSii launched its iPhone app, Vanessa Vigar, Head of Corporate Communications, invited me to company HQ in Amsterdam to connect with Dan Harple, GyPSii CEO. The interview was a meeting of the minds, which I have produced as a two-part podcast here on MSG. (Thanks again for reaching out, Vanessa!)

In Part 1, Dan gives me the high-level view of what GyPSii is (and isn’t), presents his no-holds-barred view of the real market for location services, and walks me through the value propositions (for people and GyPSii partners) that are intertwined with the company mission to make sure all of us are out on our bikes searching the planet, instead of on our PCs searching the Internet.

Listen to the podcast. [17:00]

For background on  GyPSii and a review of some of the recent announcements (deals with handset manufacturers, impressive traction in China, and the newly-released Open Experience API), check out my bnetTV interview with Shane Lennon, Senior Vice President, Marketing & Product Development at GyPSii, in the MSG video jukebox (located in the right-hand sidebar).

Audio interview excerpts:

MOBILITY: Despite the fact we have mobile services, we still tend to experience life and everything around us in a sit-down, do-nothing mode. “Everyone’s connected now, but our lives are developing a kind of virtual feel to them that I think is thin.” Dan and his team (mostly ex-Netscape) developed GyPSii to “record your life in a digital way, so wherever you are you can record what you’re doing and you can share that with communities, your friends, your family.” The newly-released module, called GyPSii Connect, automatically connects people with their other social networks, such as Facebook and Twitter.

LOCATION: Is LBS the next big thing? Maybe – but our definition of it is limiting our ability to break new ground. A problem is our outmoded paradigm. “To create innovation you don’t look in the rear view mirror.” GyPSii does location, “but it’s not all we do.”

SEARCH: A primary function of GyPSii is PlaceMe. From the website: “PlaceMe – allows you to create a point of interest (POI) and associate a current or previous image, video, audio and text, URL and reference the POI to your current or last geo-location, categorize, tag and describe the point of interest and submit to the server in real time to a personal or publicly designated folder in your MyPlaces (your record of points of interest).” Put simply, every time you do [perform] a PlaceMe, you create a searchable place on the Internet. GyPSii has put this function at the center of a new search paradigm. It’s all about “a much deeper level of relevancy which isn’t about a virtual world, it’s about a real world.  So, when I search, I don’t want to really search what other websites people clicked on, I want to search other places and experiences that people had.”

PEOPLE-POWERED SEARCH: Google search is about PageRank, an algorithm that, like a popularity contest, pushes what the mass market says is cool. But there’s more to life than following the crowd. GyPSii relies on people to make results relevant and potentially more valuable to us. It’s all about “building an alternative global Internet search index.” As Dan puts it: “I think the only way you build that index is if you empower millions of people to build it.  So, that’s natural, it’s organic, it came from real people, I just think that’s a cooler index to have.” After all, it’s people and their opinions that matter most. “When I search, I don’t really care how many people clicked on a restaurant’s website, it doesn’t matter to me.  What matters is did my friends go there, did people in my community go there, who goes there and what do they think of it.”

MOBILE ADVERTISING: Part 2 focuses on this topic – but we do get a view into the business models Dan imagines can emerge when you combine people-powered search and real world experience. “I think the future of advertising is about a much deeper level of relevance and context and location.”

iPHONE: It’s game-changing – but the barrier to entry for that coolness may not be so high after all. “As a developer, you can make much cooler apps on the iPhone right now, but I would suggest that other companies who build browsers, [such as] Opera and Microsoft, will create a much better mobile browser. But I think the barrier to [an] enhanced user experience is more at an operating system level. (Translated: Symbian is clunky and needs to get better, for example.) As far as advertising goes, Dan isn’t jumping on the iPhone bandwagon. “I’d say the amount of ads served in the mobile market right now isn’t yet quite material.  It’s material when it’s at scale, and, for all the love of Apple and the coolness of the iPhone, it’s not a product that’s had scale.”

GYPSII iPHONE APP: (Note: This interview was conducted prior to launch, so no deep details.) What could Dan say at the time: It does more and looks cooler (because it’s an iPhone, of course!). But look under the hood and the iconography of GyPSii (the visual vocabulary), which is core to what GyPSsii is, will stay the same. “Practically, what this means is when GyPSii rolls out on the iPhone, it will reflect the next-gen – and we don’t call it UI any more, we call it UX – user experience.  So, our next-gen UX will be on the iPhone and then that’s already in build processes on all of our other device families.

OPENEXPERIENCE API (OEx):  Just call it the “window into the management of your social fabric and your interaction with people, not just on GyPSii but on other social networks.  It’s the management of all your social media, how you record it, how you share it, and how you search for it.” What does it mean for partners? In a word: Speed. “If you think what Facebook Connect has done for Facebook, it’s a similar thing for GyPSii; it allows us to get integration with other partners fast.” As Dan puts it: “The way to think about this is if we had to go and do a custom build of GyPSii on every device, no company could afford to do that, there are too many devices coming and they’re coming too quickly….So, we essentially built a core platform and an API around that platform which drives all the experiences you see in GyPSii, so then all those key functions can be called out of that API.” The OEx is at the heart of a recent deal with Samsung. “They’re launching their own social media location-based portal, and essentially it’s GyPSii, it’s using the GyPSii back-end and using our open experience API to make all that happen.”

In Part 2 – Dan and I take a look at mobile advertising, which is live in countries such as China. We also deep dive into the details of the Gypsii business model, one Dan calls the waterfall model, and we dissect the GyPSii mobile search paradigm, one based on a new concept Dan calls PlaceRank.

Special thanks to GyPSii for hosting my podcast until I can work out the details to upload my content to the cloud and make it avaiable to MSG readers via iTunes. It’s work in progress and coming soon!

If you think you read wrong when you understood from today’s report in NewMediaAge (NMA) that Blyk had indeed pulled the plug on its U.K. operations, you are absolutely right. My first reaction was disbelief, and I immediately called Blyk to get the story from the source. The story is: There is no story. [SEE UPDATE BELOW]

Jonathan MacDonald – a brave voice in the mobile advertising space, who, during his time at Blyk, was instrumental in developing the company’s strategy – has summarized the facts in this post. (And I see that NMA, just minutes ago, had retracted the headline that started it all.)

Judging from the level of excitement today, the timing couldn’t be better for a serious analysis of Blyk’s partnership strategy (and an update on negotiations with mobile operators). Another important development that needs some clarification: The announcement during Mobile World Congress that Velti and Blyk have sealed a deal to launch a content portal.

The intriguing part of the release (that no doubt got lost in the trade show shuffle): “The new portal acts as a conduit for Blyk members interested in content from relevant brands or lifestyle choices; which moves away from the traditional mobile portal business model.” (Hmmm – an interesting approach that potentially addresses the frequent complaints I hear from cool content providers and app developers frustrated by the red tape and – in some cases-  re-education  necessary to sell mobile operators on their offers.)

Blyk has a mobile savvy audience of 16-24 year olds (early-adopters), and has built its business on a deep understanding of social media marketing (the models and means to play matchmaker between customers and content/apps). Against this backdrop, the Blyk’s strategy opens up some interesting opportunities and raises some even more interesting questions: To what extent is it possible to encourage discovery based on insights into customer demographics (gathered through opt-in and other means)? In what way can personalization determine the content (and advertising, as Blyk does treat advertising as another form of content) Blyk users will accept and appreciate? Does this model displace carriers, or potentially help them in the inevitable transition from mobile operator to media company?

These are just a few of the questions I will discuss this week with Antti Öhrling, Blyk co-founder and U.K. CEO. We are scheduled for a catch-up call, but I have shifted gears and plan to produce a podcast based on this important discussion.

In the meantime, I invite you to listen in to this podcast from last year, one of MSG’s most popular series. (You can find the second in the Blyk series here.)

Please always feel free to suggest companies and individuals you would like to see on MSG. I am always interested in hearing your ideas!

One you shouldn’t miss: A podcast with a company that has turned the Google model on its head. It’s all about indexing the world around us for the delivery of hyper-targeted/hyper-local advertising and content recommendations.

UPDATE: This just in from Justin Pearse, editor of New Media Age, a publication I also respect and contribute to when the opportunity arises.

From his email:

We did not say Blyk has pulled the plug on it¹s U.K. operations. Our story
said the MVNO was being discontinued. Which is the case. We have not
retracted any headline.

Our story is solid, I would not have let it run if it were not. Of course
Blyk want to deny it. The job of a journalist is to print the news companies
do not want to get out. The rest is PR.

Point taken, Justin. I will most certainly ask Antti to define what he means by “discontinued”. I also plan to raise other matters (such as redundancies in the U.K.) during my call and include the answers in my next post on Blyk.

The 450+ attendees at Think Mobile that descended on NYC in March can count themselves lucky. We were treated to an excellent line-up of 60+ top-notch speakers, chosen by my esteemed colleague Matthew Snyder, Founder & CEO of ADObjects, a strategic cross-media consultancy, for their insights, ideas, and willingness to share both. Feedback from my panel on Mobile Search & SEO has been overwhelmingly positive, in part because Matthew and I brainstormed and purposely brought together an eclectic mix of individuals passionate about their work and the mobile industry at large.

I was so impressed by the caliber of speakers (Michael Slinger, Manager, Google: Rachel Pasqua, Director, Mobile Strategy, iCrossing; and David Berkowitz, Director of Emerging Media & Client Strategy at 360i) that I have decided to showcase each individually on MSG. (I had the opportunity to do a video interview with David and will be back with more on that, and his views on social media and mobile search, once the bnetTV team has edited the footage and posted in the video player in the sidebar.)

Today I kick off this “mini-series” with Bob Rosenschein, Answers Corporation CEO and mobile search “guru” (my description- he’s far too modest). The company’s social search service WikiAnswers.com has seen some stellar growth, according to comScore. In March, the measurement and market research firm reported that WikiAnswers.com U.S. unique visitors reached nearly 19 million in January 2009, compared to 729,000 in December 2006. During this time period, WikiAnswers.com’s market share increased from 4 percent to nearly 35 percent, vs. Yahoo! Answers, based on U.S. unique visitors. Overall, WikiAnswers.com was identified as the fastest growing top 200 U.S. domain for all of 2008.

Another milestone: Answers Corporation counted 10 million questions in the WikiAnswers.com Q&A database. (Answers Corporation acquired the WikiAnswers.com database in 2006, and since then questions have increased over 35-fold.) As Bruce D. Smith, Chief Strategic Officer of Answers Corporation, who leads the Community Development team, put it in a recent release: The WikiAnswers community is “experiencing exciting growth,” with over 500 volunteer supervisors and millions of contributors, supported by our 12-member Community Development Team.

Social search meets mobile? Regular readers will know I am excited about this combination. (In fact, I commented on this emerging business model in recent-release white papers from mobile search companies Taptu and abphone.) In view of WikiAnswers.com’s increasing popularity, I decided to take a closer look at the company’s future roadmap. I caught up with Bob to get the inside track on his company’s mobile ambitions, discuss the key criteria for an optimal mobile search experience, and the role of mobile advertising in the scheme of things.

Listen to the podcast. [16:18]

By way of background, Answers Corporation, founded in 1998, was formerly known as GuruNet. It changed its name to Answers Corporation in 2005. The company is best known as the owner of the popular social knowledge Q&A site WikiAnswers.com, and the “encyclodictionalmanacapedia” Answers.com. Answers is a Google AdSense partner, meaning thatAnswers.com and WikiAnswers.com show Google performance ads on their pages.

WIKIANSWERS.COM: It’s a fast-mover. “On WikiAnswers, people type in the questions; other people answer them; and hopefully, over time, we get the best possible answers. Our goal is to give the best answers anywhere on the Web, for any kind of question.”

MOBILE SEARCH: Bob can’t give specifics and I respect that. But he can give us an indication of what is in the pipeline. As he put it: “I will say that the area of delivering our answers on mobile is obviously of enormous interest to us this year and next year.” While companies can tailor their services to specific platforms and devices, Bob doesn’t recommend it and hints that his company is focused on “adapting our product lines over time to work on all of the mobile devices, and of course we mean smartphones, but not only smartphones — anything with a Web browser.”

OPTIMAL USER EXPERIENCE: Quick answers in fewer clicks is the algorithm for mobile search success. “We believe that there’s too much information overload.” The problem is that search engines are really good at searching the Web, but what do they deliver? “A page of links; of links to other sites, but you know what? The mobile world still has slow browsers….If you get a list of links to pages that are mobile pages, you’re almost afraid to click on one of them. How do you know if it’s going to be a 5 second page or a 25 second page?” You don’t know. “Our goal is to give people useful information in fewer clicks. And so that’s actually a very good hint towards how we see the mobile world evolving and what we think we might be able to add to it.”

MOBILE SEO: Is the end-game about delivering answers on the go? If so, then what is the potential impact on SEO? In a word: Profound. Bob points out that Google’s introduction of a canonical element aimed at assisting SEO clearly recognizes mobile content is different from the Web. “In other words, you can now make a page that exists in different forms, give it a canonical name, and tell Google that this is the canonical page. This is the real page, and all these other things are just adaptations of it for different user experiences and phone factors, especially mobile. So, Google is being advised that this is the same page as another page in a legitimate fashion such that it doesn’t hurt SEO.

PUBLISHER TIPS: Brand is everything, which is why companies must deliver a quality user experience that begins with the basics, such as presentation. “Users will have even less patience on a small device. You have to get it right and it’s a really different ballgame in terms of presentational dynamics.” Google and Yahoo will continue to be important, and I think the challenges for the rest of us [will be] to find our place in this new world…. [It] will boil down to user experience. In the words of Tim O’Reilly; ‘How do we get users to visit our content in an age where they are free to choose content?’

MONETIZATION & MOBILE ADS: Google changed the rules when it introduced text ads on their pages that didn’t look like text ads. “Google zagged when everybody else was zigging, and they did something very brilliant.” But the real lesson we must apply to mobile is relevancy.  ”It is attractive to the user; it’s more trustworthy. But if that weren’t enough, it is informative and not interruptive.” But even relevant ads might not convince users to accept mobile advertising, according to recent research from Nielsen Mobile (via Citi Investment Research, a division of Citigroup Global markets). Bob was kind enough to share a short excerpt and some surprising stats from the client report, written by analyst Mark Mahaney. Under the heading: “There is a material consumer resistance to mobile advertising,” Mahaney states privacy concerns and users’ skepticism are holding back mobile advertising in the U.S.

Meanwhile, we learn from the Thanh Nien Daily that mobile advertising is booming in Vietnam. Quoting Aaron Cross, managing director of The Nielsen Company in Vietnam, who spoke at a two-day conference on Integrated Marketing in Vietnam which wrapped up last Friday in Ho Chi Minh City, the post reports (according to the Nielsen Mobile Insights Survey 2008) almost half of mobile owners in Vietnam receive advertisements via SMS each month.

The majority of those ads are read by consumers. The survey also said 74 percent of people in HCMC and Hanoi, the country’s two economic hubs, own a mobile phone. Over half (58 percent) of the country’s urban population, and a third (37 percent) of rural residents own cell phones. But the way isn’t clear for mass marketing yet. Cross pointed out the new anti-spam government decree, which took effect last month in Vietnam, protects consumers from receiving unwanted messages on their mobile phones. However, cost-conscious Vietnamese consumers are open to “hot deals and great value to relieve pressure from their monthly budgets.”

Mobile advertising is also gaining traction in Japan. This post, quoting Tom Bowman, BBC.com’s VP international ad sales who spoke at the Digital Symposium hosted by Habari Media last week in the Western Cape, argues consumers are “almost twice as receptive to mobile advertising as to magazine advertising, making it the highest priority for prospective advertisers.”

WHAT’S NEXT?: The industry has to sort out business models. Is it sponsorship? Is it an animated display ad? Or is it some kind of click-through only on performance ads? “But I’m going to say something very flippant now: “Who cares? …It’s a branding opportunity… and sometimes you subsidize one part of your business with another.” Bob would rather “get the service right and figure out how to monetize later.”

Special thanks to Alison Minaglia at Technology PR for the image of Bob addressing the ThinkMobile audience!

A browse through Tom’s bio, and it’s clear he’s not one to follow the crowd of lemming investors who rush to the next new thing, only to drop it when the cool factor has gone cold. To the contrary, Tom is convinced early-stage startups can pay-off big if investors stick with them for the long-term. To identify the do’s and don’ts for startups in a downturn, he started off talking through the business basics, such as the best exit strategies and the opportunities for “kitchen-table startups” – as he calls them – and app developers. Tom’s answers are insightful and entertaining – all the more reason to listen in.

But the main attraction is Tom’s take on what mobile advertising really needs: Engagement. In his view, it’s all about providing and managing a one-to-one conversation between brands and people, and he’s looking for companies that “get” it. As he puts it: “There are a few agencies that appear to get it, but they und up getting slotted as a mobile agency…What you want to be is a creative advertiser [agency] that uses mobile.” Since there are so few on the horizon, the time may be right to start one yourself.

Listen to the podcast here. [19:16]

I’m smiling to myself as I write this post, since Tom’s outspoken views on engagement echo the principles of Every Single One Of Us, a venture set up by colleague and co-collaborator Jonathan MacDonald to “unite a cross-section of mobile operators, mobile companies and big-name brands to educate the market and encourage discussions about emerging business models, industry issues, and areas of growth that will help companies, stakeholders and shareholders engage with potential consumers and ultimately drive mobile advertising revenues and positive results.” Every Single One Of Us is gaining serious traction, counting over 100 supporters (aptly called Collaborators), including the CEOs of large brands and advertising agencies, mobile influencers, and citizen activists. (Disclosure: I am also a Collaborator.) In the few weeks since the launch meeting, Every Single One Of Us has achieved some exciting milestones (and formalized its relationship with MSG), developments which I am documenting in a press release as we speak for distribution next week. All good, as Jonathan would say..

Among the interview highlights:

M&A: It’s THE exit strategy. “But along the way, you should build the company as if you are absolutely going to be ready to go public.” It’s important if you want to structure your company properly, “but you can’t have a specific company as your M&A target; as you acquire a target. If you ever do that, you’ve narrowed the universe of potential buyers so extremely that I don’t think your odds for success are very high.”

GROWTH: Tom recalls the milestones he’s seen in mobile, including the expectation that mobile would reach over one million (yes million) subscribers by 2000. The fact that we are well past this shows that mobile is and continues to be the highest-growth sector there is – even in a downturn. “Anyone who’s been participating in mobile for the last 15 years and hasn’t experienced unbelievable growth has had their head under a log.”

APP OPPORTUNITIES: Thanks to iPhone and a new interest in openness among mobile operators “there’s suddenly an opportunity for entrepreneurs that have been using mobile phones in a very widespread way.” Who is likely to benefit and make a lot of money in the process? “They’re kitchen table start-ups that can make individual developers quite a bit of money, as long as they don’t sell most of their company to venture capitalists with very high expectations.”

SPONSORED APPS: Thanks to the iPhone there is a new market for what Tom calls “sponsored apps” that allow people to interact with brands in a personal way. “There are a lot of opportunities to develop these sponsored apps…and I have been investing in companies that would provide the sponsored apps, the one-to-many communications capability.”

MOBILE ADVERTISING & ENGAGEMENT: Cross-media is the key here. As Tom puts it: “I’m very interested in a number of opportunities that involve the heterogeneous mix of talents and services that’ll aim at using mobile in quite comprehensive personalization campaigns, as opposed to looking at platform plays where mobile is all that the platform looks at. I think it has to be a combination.” To be clear mobile advertising is not about technology. It’s about “individual engagement between a consumer and the brands they will grow to love as opposed to this notion of targeting.” Is this a business model or a warm-and-fuzzy concept? Tom has no illusions. Big ideas can be “baloney” but this is an idea whose time has come. Engagement is the “ultimate goal” of most brand advertisers. “If you told any large brand that you were going to offer them the opportunity to have a cost-effective personal engagement with their consumers; they would all say ‘tell me more’.”

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE: Tom and I enjoy a meeting of the minds near the end of the podcast when we debate engagement, and question whether we might have to start a company that “gets” it. But it’s more than fun; it’s a blueprint for change – if you’re game to transforming how you do business.

Check back for Part 2 next week, when Tom is back with valuable advice for entrepreneurs, and his pick of top trends for 2009.

A major obstacle is usability. Inputting search terms on a mobile device is tedious, but the more words in the query the more accurate the result set is likely to be. You’re sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place, which is why query completion and/or multi-modal technology (voice) have a top-notch spot in many mobile search strategies.

But input is just part of the equation. Another important issue is context/personalization, and the requirement for mobile search services to “learn” with the user to understand that when they type in “bond” they want financial news (stocks and bonds) and not entertainment (James Bond).

Many tools and technologies are coming online to tackle these issues, but kannuu, a newcomer that broke on the scene with its patented technology in 2007, has the capabilities mix to address several key issues at once. In fact, I have had kannuu high on my radar since the start of the year when I was requested to judge the 2008 Meffy Mobile Entertainment awards in the mobile Search and Discovery category for the second consecutive year. (BTW: The awards provide an excellent snapshot of cutting-edge technology and business models, and are presented by the Mobile Entertainment Forum, the global infotainment industry association. In the end, kannuu made the shortlist, along with some other companies you can read about here.)

I was initially impressed by the company’s approach to usability. But a recent briefing with Sean-Michael Daley, kannuu CEO, has made it clear that kannuu has its eye on a much bigger prize: Applying its self-learning algorithms and key IP in indexing to improve mobile search and enable new monetization schemes that go far beyond Google AdWords. (Thanks again to Sarah Duckett, kannuu VP Communications, for arranging the briefing and providing me with first-rate background materials such as the video below.)

Sean-Michael tells me that recent usability tests estimate kannuu’s technology “generally delivers a 3x improvement in the speed at which users can find something.” But it’s not just about speeding up mobile search. The pay-off is in fine-tuning mobile search to enable transactions and commerce on the fly. (Sean-Michael’s remarks remind me of a recent panel on mobile search trends in Japan that MSG covered here. The bottom line: Commerce, not search advertising, will be the way content owners and brands make their money.)

Sean-Michael tells me that mobile commerce pilots are already underway. “That’s where there is a really good return on investment…We can improve the quality of the experience people go through and [enable them to] actually complete transactions. Because of the volume there you only need to increase that by a fraction of a percent and our technology is well and truly paying for itself.”

Listen to the podcast here. [11:30]

In my view, kannuu is one of the few companies in a position to both recognize and address the growth opportunities in mobile search and content discovery. That’s a pretty bold statement, so I’ll begin with a review of the key capabilities that allow kannuu to organize content sources so items are searchable and findable in the first place (thus going one better than most).

As the demo above shows, kannuu’s user interface is built from the ground up to present the user with relevant options at each menu level, along with a way for the user to make their next move. In the case of a device with a screen and four-way directional button, the user gets four choices at a time, and can select between them by pressing the button up, down, left, or right. The system also provides an option for the user to request more choices if the desired option is not displayed.

The interface is cool, but I’m even more excited about the algorithms and the indexing capabilities under the hood that work with the interface component to ensure the user gets shortcuts to content that is indeed available. It’s not about telling the user what could be there; it’s about showing the user what really is there.

In a nutshell, kannuu only presents data that exists in the database – that is, data that belongs to the partner mobile search provider or content partner – so users never receive the dreaded “no results found” message. As Sean-Michael explains: “We index your content [the content belonging to kannuu's partner] and enable the lookup on that content only. … We present the user with the most likely bit sized chunks of characters required to complete the desired lookup phrase.”

In addition to indexing content items in the database owned by the customer company, kannuu can also index content stored on the individual user’s device, making it searchable, findable and monetizable.

“Just say there may be someone in your address book whose name starts with a “Z” who you call often…If we’re looking at it [your behavior]  we see you call this person often. We can say the algorithm should be influenced by frequency and, since you call that number on a regular basis, we can promote that number higher up the list of choices. So you’ll actually get to that choice much earlier.”

So how is this possible?

Kannuu technology begins by analyzing source content and organizing it into a hierarchical tree of string sections, a structure we’ll refer to as the kannuu index. The kannuu index is the basis for kannuu lookup. It is also the mechanism that determines what to show to the individual user. At a deeper level, it’s the interplay between the index and kannuu’s own algorithms that makes doubly sure each individual user is shown the results in the order they will appreciate.

Once the kannuu index tree is generated, lookup is all about presenting the user with the most likely sets of characters needed to build their desired phrase. The feedback loop between the technology and the user – as options are selected or rejected by the user – give the kannuu algorithm the clues it needs to analyze the kannuu index and bubble up the right answers faster.

Kannuu’s technology can also be fine-tuned to learn over time which content is the most useful to the individual user and place those results at the top of the list. To this end kannuu can arrange results according to the user’s preferences or shuffle results to match the business rules of a business partner. “So if the advertiser is promoting a particular [item], the algorithm can be influenced so those particular choices are pushed further up the list and therefore appear earlier in the user’s selection process.”

BUSINESS MODEL: “We will make money two ways. If we’re actually on the device itself, [then] we sit on the actual device itself and therefore the manufacturer pays us a royalty per device that we’re on. The other way is that we sit on the server side. So if you’re on say a mobile phone and you’re on a Web connection and you’re looking at, say, Amazon, it would be Amazon that would be paying for our server license to use our technology.”

KILLER OPP(ORTUNITY): “The opportunity to be able to make more sales is there if people can easily and conveniently do a lookup on a mobile device. So, to me, it’s about making it easy. If you make it easy for the user, they’ll do it more often, they’ll complete more transactions, therefore we’re making more revenue. It’s a pretty straightforward story on that front.”

TRACTION: Kannuu is getting it. A major deal for the company is an alliance with Coby Electronics that will bundle kannuu’s proprietary technology with MP3 players beginning this quarter. The tie-up allows users immediate access to on-device content. In the mobile device space, chances are we’ll see more of kannuu on Nokia devices. In March, kannuu won the Technology Innovation Award for Best Mobile Multimedia experience at Nokia’s annual Mobile Rules! competition and has since been in discussions about ways to improve on-device search. “We’re moving down a path to getting [kannuu] into a pilot and that will be on their [Nokia] high-end phones.” (It’s easy to imagine taking it a step further to make the content part of the equation (think Ovi) indexable and searchable.) Sean-Michael tells me kannuu lookup functions can also be embedded into games consoles, media players, set-top boxes, kiosks and GPS-enabled devices. “Kannuu can work on any device that has a screen, a directional control of touchscreen, and the ability to index data from a database.”

The company shines on set-top boxes. “We’re having some really interesting conversations right now with a couple of the major service providers in that area [set-top boxes]. There is no doubt when you’re on a remote control, being able to choose up, down, left, right, center is the natural with your thumb, you don’t need to look at the remote to do that, you just need to look at the screen. I think also you’ve got much more screen real estate than you have on a mobile device, so we can do more things with our technology to make the experience even more fulfilling for the user.”

BTW: Kannuu can also be incorporated into widgets including Nokia WidSets, Yahoo Go widgets, and Opera widgets.

APPLE: Kannuu’s search SDK for iPhone application developers is now available for download. (The free beta iPhone SDK can be downloaded here.) Sean-Michael tells me the technology, which is also now available on the Apple Apps Store, has been well-received by Apple executives. “The popularity of the platform, along with the high demand for applications, gives us an amazing opportunity to connect consumers with content.”

SCALE: “Yahoo and Google can’t take their current search metaphor that they use on the desktop and just resize that to the mobile environment, they’ve got to really re-think it. That’s part of what we are, we’ve re-thought what search is and what look-up is when you’re on a device that’s got limited entry and of course the big databases, that’s where we really come into our own because [of] the way our technology works.”

Kannuu employs an exponential selection algorithm, rather than a linear selection algorithm. This means kannuu can work with source lists of any size, with only fractional increases in the number of clicks required to find content as the list exponentially grows. As Sean-Michael puts it: “As the list of possible results grows, kannuu becomes more efficient.”

“So, as you go from say 1,000 items to 1,000,000 items, on average you’re only adding an extra three clicks into your search and I think everyone realizes that the trend is more data, not less.” A word about speed. Sean-Micheal tells me it “takes seconds” to process an index the size of Yahoo – and kannuu should know because they work with Yahoo often.

CONTENT PROVIDERS: It’s about allowing content providers to provide a better user experience now rather than wait for handset makers to meet the usability problems heads-on. “We allow the content providers to take control of the full user experience rather than rely on the hardware to be the way the text is entered and the search is experienced. In a way it standardizes it – allowing content providers to deliver a consistent user experience regardless of the hardware.” BTW: The kannuu user interface is fully customizable, enabling a consistent brand experience for content providers.

CONTEXT & LOCATION: The kannuu algorithm can take in and process data around the user. “It may be previous searches; it may be location; and [whatever the input] they all have an effect on the [search] results that are presented….This could also be influenced by other searches taking place on the network or by mobile advertising.”

WHAT’S NEXT: Pilots – and lots of them. On mobile devices and set-top boxes, as well as “some interesting experiments in new markets.”

MY TAKE: The demo is impressive and so is kannuu’s three-prong approach to tackling the issues that make mobile search a chore. Wrapping an indexing method and a partial word completion algorithm together with a super-cool user interface, kannuu takes the heavy-lifting out of mobile search and content discovery, requiring fewer clicks to reach relevant results. If mobile search does indeed move across platforms and devices – as we would expect when convergence kicks in – then kannuu is a company that can deliver it.