It was great to have the last few days off and even better to map out an exciting line-up of MSearchGroove projects for the next few months. One that I am particularly honored to announce: my collaboration with GigaOM Pro, the new research arm of the highly respected tech blog GigaOM. By way of background, GigaOM Pro has brought together an impressive roster of industry authorities and analysts (including my esteemed colleague Chetan Sharma) to “address the gap that exists in real-time expert industry analysis on emerging technology markets.” The GigaOM Pro solution: Make timely, highly relevant analysis and insights accessible and practical.

I’m on board to write an in-depth examination of personalization and recommendation technologies and business models, a natural next step given my long track record analyzing mobile search and my deep involvement in the recommender space. (This includes work with Strands, a major provider of recommender systems, on recommender industry events including RecSys 09 – October 22-25, NYC.)

The report is an ambitious undertaking and I am naturally interested in connecting with personalization/recommendation companies –so please contact me directly if you wish to be considered for inclusion. peggy@msearchgroove.com

Why the buzz about personalization?

The advance of Internet-specific smartphones and the spread of app store schemes turns up the pressure on mobile operators (and their content providers) to decipher data transactions (on and off the network), combine it with location and demographic data and use the results to create a 360-degree view of the individual.

Where does this shift leave mobile operators?

They are hard pushed to turn analytics into competitive advantage. Sensing this business opportunity (that execs tell me they estimate hovers in the hundreds of millions of dollars), a slew of companies (such as Amdocs, Bytemobile, Novarra and Qualcomm) are among the first out the gates with revamped offers to arm operators for the ultimate battle with Web giants for the mobile customer. This special series profiles the players jockeying for position in the marketplace.

This week we look at Openwave, which has recently productized its existing analytics capabilities and business intelligence know-how, and packaged it up as Mobile Analytics.

The solution – designed to aggregate usage data and behavioral information across a variety of sources, including on-portal surfing and open Web browsing, to generate meaningful reports –dovetails with other Openwave offers (behavioral targeting, profiling, usage pattern analysis) to lay the groundwork for the delivery of relevant content and advertising.

I caught up with Mayur Pitamber, Openwave Product Management Strategist, to discuss the role of the mobile operator, debate the value of personalization and what we can expect next in the Openwave product roadmap.

AN EXCERPT OF OUR Q&A

Q: Let’s talk about the fit with mobile advertising. You have just launched the complement to your own mobile advertising solution, which is Mobile Analytics. What’s the level of interest in mobile advertising? I’m hearing some operators get it, but many more don’t…

A: There was some hype about it at first, but operators are starting to see the value of it now and they are also beginning to understand the real value of the data they have. The last months have been marked by a surge of activity and RFIs and RFPs specifically for mobile analytics solutions, which is new in this market. We didn’t see this last year.

A lot of what happened and the initial excitement around mobile advertising industry was quite premature. It’s not just about offering targeted advertising; it’s about offering relevant products and services based on the user’s behavior. The operators can use analytics to gain profiles of these users, the sites they frequent and what they do while online. It’s when this information can be aggregated and provided to media agencies and brands that it really becomes valuable.

It’s all about helping operators to provide the mobile audience metrics that the brands are looking for. Not necessarily going through the GSMA, because they have some of that [covered in their] initiative, but doing that directly. With the solution we’re offering the operators can provide those metrics directly to the brands, to the media agencies, to the publishers, and be a vital part of that mobile advertising ecosystem. And with our solution there’s no need for us to insert tracking or cookies or JavaScript, or anything like that. Every Web page goes through our gateway and we can basically track on that. So, that’s a key differentiator.

Q: There are, of course, other solutions in this space. A long list of gateway providers: Qualcomm, Amdocs, Ericsson, Nokia, Bytemobile, Novarra. And the space is getting crowded.

A: Obviously, there are competitors out there.  All gateway providers can provide parts of this sort of solution. However, I haven’t come across a solution [similar to ours] with this [breadth] out there in the market at this point in time. Being a gateway provider for the last 10 years, we’ve been providing this type of reporting to operators. But now we’ve added more features and made it more user-friendly. So, it’s a mature business intelligence product that we’re bringing to the market.

Q: In early August, Telstra announced it had implemented your Mobile Analytics solution. The press release says it’s all about providing Telstra a “dashboard view of intelligent analytics and rich reporting capabilities across its mobile device portfolio.” To start, how many of your operator customers have this solution or perhaps the analytics solutions that preceded this?

A: We have deployed previous versions of this analytic solution to some six tier-1 operators around the world.

Q: Let’s say I’m an operator and I don’t have a solution from Openwave, but I like the analytics.  Can I just have that, or is it a package deal?

A: Previously, the solution was just built around Openwave products. But obviously, we want a bigger market share, so we’ve designed the solution such that it will work with any other gateway, any other vendor of gateway products.

Q: You said before competing on analytics is the way for operators to be “a vital part of the ecosystem.” Can operators really play this central role?

A: That’s a really good question. I think it’s quite difficult to answer as well. The operators have traditionally been sluggish. Their bread and butter has been voice revenues and SMS revenues. To really get them incentivized to offer new services such as mobile advertising, you need a compelling business case. I’ve spoken to dozens of operators around the world. Some of them are in advanced stages of creating any-time mobile advertising organizations. Others have only one or two mobile advertising product managers. For these operators, the business case – for whatever reason – is just not compelling enough for the decision makers to say okay, let’s really invest in this.

Q: This jives with what people told me while I was conducting interviews for Mobile Advertising Research UK. As one executive at a mobile infrastructure company that counts over 300 network operator clients observed: Mobile advertising only becomes interesting for an operator when “the type of revenue they can envisage is around 2 percent of their overall revenue to 5 percent, and with an opportunity to grow to 10 percent of revenue. This is the revenue that will really make them sit up and make it work.” Another figure that stands out: GBP 28.6 million, which is what the IAB reckons was the mobile ad spend in 2008. What’s your take?

A: I can believe the ad spend for the U.K. I think the hold up is the thinking about the role of the mobile operator. We have to be clear about what they can do. In my view, the role of the mobile operator will be to provide incentives for people to use new services so that additional inventory and mediums become available to insert ads. And obviously, once those mediums become available, that becomes attractive to brands and advertisers. But, right now, it’s difficult for operators to manage their inventories. They have SMS inventory, MMS inventory, on-portal, off-portal. All of these are different systems and it’s difficult to provide brands and advertisers a consolidated view of what is available out there. So, it’s when there is a clear view of the different inventories out there and the tools to manage these inventories, and make these inventories available to third-parties such as the brands and media agencies, that I think mobile advertising will really take off.

Q: Are you convinced operators can start acting like media companies? Or are there going to be a lot of carriers that focus on access over audience?

A: The tier-1s I talk with have created organizations to manage mobile advertising. They’ve created sales forces to go out and sell inventory. So, they are already acting as media agencies and helping brands identify which inventory they want to use. But again, these are just the big tier-1 operators.

Q: Advertising is messaging – and loads of it. Or it could borrow from TV and be video-centric? We don’t know. In any case, we have more data usage – both from people surfing with their smartphones and brands that want to reach them. What is the potential impact on the network side of things? What are you seeing?

A: We’re seeing huge increase in data traffic volumes. A data tsunami is going to hit operators within the next 12-24 months. And some operators are quite oblivious to this. So, [with Mobile Analytics] we’re helping the operators to identify trends on the operational front as well. We’re saying ‘Hey, you need to do capacity planning and optimize your networks because this is going to be your traffic in 6 months or 12 months.’

Q: Let’s move to the report on North American mobile Internet trends you issued that may have got lost in the CTIA shuffle. It made some interesting points, and I understand you are about to release another one soon. What were some of the key observations and what were the surprises?

A: That report was basically based on data from one of our customers in North America. Many of the trends we saw confirmed what the market was thinking. For example, everyone is doing social networking on mobile. The top sites, as you could guess, were Facebook and MySpace.

In terms of search, we were able to also track some keywords. Something that was interesting: people – when they wanted to find Google — wouldn’t enter Google on their mobile phone and go to Google. They would actually enter ‘Google’ in a Yahoo search engine. This operator had Yahoo as a search partner. Anyway, that tells us that a lot of search use may be because of usability. It’s easier to type it [a destination] in a search box than to navigate to it on the Web.

Q: Finally – what about app stores? They’re hot. What is the value-add, if any, from analytics?

A: One of the operators we’re working with is in the process of opening an app store. They know that not all users are going to go through the apps. If you figure the iPhone app store has tens of thousands of apps and growing, users would lose patience sifting through all that. This operator wants to analytics specifically on this [operator] app store to identify the top ten apps. But it goes beyond this to include how many times have the apps been downloaded; who has consumed them; and whether the users have shared apps with other people. More importantly, the operator is providing this app store data to the application developers, so they also have insight into how their apps are being used and how many people have downloaded their apps. So, Mobile Analytics can be used to identify the audiences going to these app stores – and that can be used to build the business.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Generally speaking, the value of data is not in the data itself, but in the mashups we create when we combine it with other data stores. Put another way, the way to wring the value out of analytics is to combine it with location and demographics data, which is why Openwave is keen to feature both in its Mobile Analytics solution. Mayur tells me we can expect location in the next months. (Openwave is also gearing up to announce another customer win for its analytics offer in South East Asia.)

Likewise recommendation capabilities are moving up the list to take a center spot in Openwave strategy. As Mayur put it: The next version of Mobile Analytics will come with recommenders “bolted on.” No word yet on what the recommender will allow (delivery of content or advertising – or both?), how it will achieve this (based on item-to-item or user-to user – or both?), or how it will integrate with Openwave’s underlying Integra platform. But read between the lines, and the sharpened focus on recommendation is at least a welcome testament to the timing and importance of my upcoming GigaOM report on the same topic.

Openwave, unlike some of the gateway providers I’ve examined/profiled in this series, is also bullish about mobile search. The company demo points out that Mobile Analytics potentially improves mobile search, allowing operators to deliver relevant results individuals will find useful.

I am reminded at this juncture of a related post I wrote about the potential for operator-centric, operator-powered, operator-controlled mobile search. With the right tools and technology mobile operators can follow our virtual breadcrumb trail to optimize our mobile search (and advertising) experiences, using our actual usage patterns to give us the answers/results we will most likely appreciate.

My take: Personalization is a hot topic but personalized recommendation and search are even hotter. The space is crowding with gateway providers that are using their position in the network to give their operator customers insights into what people are doing on the network (on- and off-portal). The end-game is about helping operators make business decisions based on new subscriber behaviors and trends. Openwave is one of a number of companies in this space – but it has its eye on the prize: drilling down in the data to help operators manage bandwidth allocation, deliver targeted mobile advertising AND fine-tune recommendation and mobile search. What better way for operators to compete against Internet and search engine giants, and potentially win?

Next in the series: We discuss personalization with Novarra.

Among the overall findings:

• Devices don’t’ matter (much): Users with standard feature phones will use the Web as much or even more than a smartphone user if the mobile Internet experience is good
• There is a ‘long tail’ in the mobile Internet: The top website typically accounts for 5 percent of total mobile page views. The number two site accounts for less than 1 percent of traffic. And the top 500 sites account for only 25-30 percent of all page views
• Sessions vary: 40 percent of mobile internet sessions are under five minutes and 40 percent are over 15 minutes

The report further groups mobile users into ‘tribes’ based on their distinctive user profiles. These are:

• The Business Pro – Dependent on their mobile to be more productive and to handle all their communications
• The Mobile Millennial – Early adopters and young adults with disposable income
• The Connected Kid – Children and teenagers who have grown up with technology from a young age
• The Multitasking Parent – Use their mobile phone to stay in touch and manage family schedules
• The Frugal Fanatic – Cost conscious of spending, usually opting for a free handset

Based on these observations and segmentation the report concludes:

• Multitasking Parents and Mobile Millennials are the most active user populations, generating nearly 2/3 of mobile browsing sessions between them
• Business Pros even with their highly capable devices, generate less mobile browsing sessions than expected. They also use news, sports and information sites twice as much as nearly all other groups and are lowest for social networks
• Mobile Millennial and Connected Kids are by far the heaviest users of social networks
• Frugal Fanatics utilise handset customisation services more than twice as much as any other group
• Connected Kids have far more page views relative to sessions than any other group, indicating they tend to surf more for entertainment purposes
• Source

The bottom line: The Mobile Internet, and indeed many mobile services, would fail to survive and thrive without technical companies such as Novarra, largely unknown to the masses, but which provide critical back-end solutions. Peggy adds: Kudos to Novarra for an excellent report! Not a lot of rocket science here, but an important confirmation of the groups of people on the mobile Web and an overview of what they do. Read between the lines, and you’ll see there is a great deal of untapped value in developing (and branding) life-enabling/life-simplifying services for the Multitasking Parents and Mobile Millennials, who are the most active user populations and – potentially – most responsive to companies that make their lives easier. (I highly recommend you check out my fireside chat with Ogilvy’s Rory Sutherland, packed with some surprising business model suggestions, supported by the findings above.)

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LOCAL MOBILE CONTENT ATTRACTS SIGNIFICANT AUDIENCE. Local content views are up 51 percent over the past year, according to comScore figures. Research also reveals that application downloads are leading the growth.  It observes an 83 percent increase in the number of subscribers to local content via applications since March 2008, with text messaging services also outpacing average growth.  The study shows a 72 per cent increase in SMS subscriptions in the 12 months to March 2009.

Meanwhile, browser based access continues to grow at a rate of 34 percent year on year over the same period and, despite the slower growth rate, remains the dominant method for retrieving local content.  It accounted for 63.7 percent of all downloads in March 2009. Earlier research by comScore found younger mobile users tend to retrieve more entertainment content, while older users across Europe usually prefer financial information. Source

The bottom line: These generally encouraging comScore statistics confirm our hunch that applications downloads and mobile Internet usage are on the rise. However, the surge in local mobile content may not reflect a universal trend. It’s likely that the popularity of local content is a product of context. In other words, local content thrives in a handful of large, dense, urban regions where high-speed network coverage and captive audiences are the norm. Peggy adds: These stats also question our assumption that the global giants we know rule the roost. Take Skyrock in France, which is bigger that Facebook can ever hope to be. The popularity and reach of local content – particularly on personal devices such as our mobile phones – is sure to climb.

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MOBILE ADVERTISING FOR MOVIES AND ALCOHOL SET BENCHMARK for industry, according to a study by Amethon Mobile Internet Insight.  The study also states that despite high CTRs, brands should focus on the quality of engagement.

Analysis of traffic to more than 100 mobile advertising sites found that consumers view just over 3 pages per visit for best-in-class campaigns, while the average across all campaigns analyzed was only 1.53 pages. Only 33 percent of consumers venture beyond the first page of mobile campaign sites, which the research says suggests mobile advertising campaigns need more compelling content within the microsite to engage consumers more effectively.

The report found that movie related campaign sites achieve the highest engagement levels, visitors viewing an average of 1.65 pages per visit, a figure that also accounted for a 21 percent share of overall audience. Alcohol campaigns achieved a similar share of audience but suffered from poor engagement, with users often not navigating beyond the age verification page.

Portal and directory service campaigns were the most common (22 percent of all campaigns), but had a relatively low audience share and below-average engagement.  Meanwhile, content downloads such as branded wallpapers or videos in the microsite did not significantly improve engagement. Source

The bottom line: This detailed study of mobile advertising offers insightful statistics to support what many have been saying all along: Advertising must be relevant and engaging.  While it probably comes as no surprise that interest in advertising around films takes the top shot, a lot of work has to be done in the way of creative thought to the landing page and what people do after they click through. This is particularly pertinent in view of the drop off in popularity of wallpapers and video.  The other issue of poor engagement in popular alcohol campaigns, possibly due to age verification process is disappointing but not surprising or uncommon.  I explore age verification issues in more detail in a recent post here.

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40 PERCENT OF USERS ACCESS INTERNET MORE OFTEN ON iPHONE / iPOD TOUCH THAN ON PC, according to a new demographic study from comScore and Admob.  The research also reveals that 69 percent of iPod Touch users are between 13-24 years of age, while the same age segment represents just 26 percent of iPhone users. In total, 74 percent of iPhone users are over the age of 25, compared to 31 percent of iPod touch users. Over 70 percent of users on both the iPhone and iPod touch are male.

Over the next six months, iPhone users are said to be planning to buy clothing (57 percent), entertainment (47 percent), and travel (45 percent), while iPod touch users plan to purchase clothing (61 percent), entertainment (53 percent), and mobile devices (36 percent).

By way of background, the methodology used in this primary research into the demographics and behavioral characteristics of iPhone and iPod touch users in the first half of 2009 is as follows: Participants were visitors to domains within the AdMob iPhone network who were shown survey invitation banners rather than banner ads. Those who clicked through the survey banner were presented with the mobile survey. The total sample size of iPod touch participants is 3,848, while the total number of

participants in the iPhone sample is 3,454. All results were tested for statistically significant differences at the 95 percent confidence level.  Source

The bottom line: As well as the headline that 40 percent of users access the Internet via their mobile device more often than their computer, the other key finding is the age differentiation.  You could surmise from this that teenagers can convince their parents to buy them an iPod touch, but not an iPhone and all its recurring bills. Other findings such as average salary were largely in-line with the age difference.  The ongoing generation of such data is key in the production of applications and the execution of mobile advertising strategies.

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LG EXPECTS NINE PERCENT RISE in mobile sales.  The Korean handset manufacturer has said it will sell 110 million devices this year, despite a flat global market. The company has also said this figure will rise to more than 200 million by 2012. Source

The bottom line: Handset manufacturers marginalized, at least in publicity terms, by the “bigger” names now have an uphill task to continue producing new quality devices which will gain mass market penetration and to effectively promote their core differentiators.  These bullish projections are encouraging signs of a still highly competitive marketplace.