Just two weeks after release and my new white paper (Mobile Advertising For The Masses) counts 500+ downloads. (Again, I am honored that Bango (white paper sponsor) refers to me as a “mobile guru.”) I always endeavor to communicate complex ideas in a way that everyone will understand, and am told people enjoy my accessible and entertaining writing style. But the real reason behind the popularity of this hands-on analysis of campaigns across three mobile social networks (BuzzCity, itsmy.com, and Peperonity) is timing. Mobile social networks are on the rise (a recent Informa report counted 200+ of them) and open for business.

Where is the money?

I was fortunate to speak at Mobile Advertising & the Rise of Social Networking: What does it mean for Brands, Agencies and Service Providers?, a Knowledge & Networking Seminar organized by AIME (the Association for Interactive Media and Entertainment) last week in London. I enjoyed the opportunity to network with mobile professionals in a casual atmosphere and will most definitely participate in future AIME events. Andrew Darling, AIME Director of Communications, tells me upcoming events/topics include: WAP publishing, mobile payments, mobile coupons, and mobile widgets.

My session looked at the nuts and bolts of mobile advertising in social networks, and the real results, revenues,  and strategies first-mover companies such as pioneer mobile flirting service Flirtomatic and brave consumer brands (via full-service mobile marketing agency Inside Mobile), have to share.

As I am currently conducting my own mobile advertising research, I was particularly interested to learn from Eric Mugnier, Inside Mobile Product and Innovation Director, that the agency has also done its homework in the form of an in-depth survey of 80 key decision makers in the global mobile advertising value chain. The report won’t be released for a few weeks/months but Eric, who is also interested in my input and ideas, has promised MSG will have it first. (Thanks Eric!)

In his presentation, which included video interview excerpts from a selection of interviews, Eric outlined a few clear trends/requirements for effective mobile advertising in a social network. Mobile advertising must be targeted and relevant; the industry has no shortage of good ideas, but it must address issues around scale; and finally, brands and agencies have built the proper foundations, and  now the priority must be to create a toolkit approach that will allow more companies to execute on the lessons they have learned.

“Killer app”

Where are the brands?

Further along than I thought if we consider the example of a major sporting goods and sports apparel company, an Inside Mobile client gearing up to release an iPhone app that combines creativity, communication, and community to deliver a compelling advertising experience that users can make their own.

In a nutshell, the app allows people to customize their shoe and share it with their friends. In the next phase, people will be able to buy what they created with their phones, share what they created with the community (and this is where it gets really interesting), geotag their creation to add another dimension to the discussion (this is what I created and where), and have the ability to post their creation as part of their Facebook profile. (More next week when MSG has the exclusive on this innovative campaign.)

As Eric put it: Allowing people to customize, share, and – most importantly – make the end-result a part of their own digital persona paves the way for effective and enthusiastic viral marketing. He’s right!

It was refreshing to hear Eric describe the campaign elements in these terms. I read it as proof the advertising ecosystem has moved a giant step forward in understanding that: 1) The emergence of empowered individuals, the advance of so-called digital natives (individuals who have grown up with the Internet), and the abundance of applications designed to give consumers more of a say in how they create, access and enjoy content have transformed communication and, more specifically, the business of advertising; 2) Advertising has become content, and brands and agencies must find ways to turn their one-way pitch to “consumers” into invigorating and effective two-way conversations; and 3) Advertising in a social network is all about active participation in the community and developing ways to interact with members and enable them to interact with each other.

My take: The principles I have discussed and debated with Jonathan MacDonald, mobile advertising activist and close friend/colleague for almost a year now, are no longer just ideas; they are the building blocks of ideal business models. Well done (!) – I’m sure Jonathan’s many presentations, trips, and workshops play a role somewhere in this transformation.

Mobile metrics

Speaking of progress, Henry Stevens, Director of Media and Entertainment, GSMA, updated us on the Mobile Media Metrics (MMM) initiative to use independently aggregated and audited metrics from operator network data to develop a common methodology (what to measure) and common process (how to measure). Agreement on these key points would enable media owners to measure performance of their media properties across mobile networks, and help media planners better understand audience trends and behavior.

Where are we now?

As we know, all five U.K. mobile operators are on board. Now the GSMA is well on its way to a commercial launch in the U.K. (the feasibility study is complete) and working with operators in other European markets to duplicate this across other regions. A technical solution for the anonymization and aggregation of operator data (allowing a persistent and unique ID), as well as integration with other relevant databases and third-party demographics, top the agenda.

But the real news is how all this can be integrated into existing reporting tools. The GSMA is currently seeking the input of brands, agencies, and media owners to ensure the process meets the long-term objective of the organization to drive the growth of mobile as a multimedia platform.

Another presentation that underlined the pivotal importance of analytics in the scheme of things came from Nandi Gurprasad, VP of Alliances, Bango.

In a case study of Tapatap, a Bango customer that was recently acquired by women’s social network LimeLife, Nandi showed how the social gaming community used analytics to measure the success of its mobile Web ad campaigns and refine advertising pitches and presentations to target countries, networks and handsets which it determined (through analytics) yield the best conversion rates. Accurate tracking of response rates across different ad networks also allowed Tapatap to better plan campaigns and, more importantly, determine customer acquisition cost.

As Nandi put it: The example shows how and why companies should leverage tools that “give them an edge” – specifically, tools that provide real-time and reliable information on users – and which provide answers to the all-important questions: Who (are my customers)? What (did they look at)? Where (did they come from)?

Vendor spin aside, mobile social networks are here to stay and grow. They offer opportunity for advertisers and drive demand for analytics solutions. (As I point out in my white paper: When the end-game is all about getting a big(ger) picture view of what you achieved and where you missed the mark, then a more comprehensive analytics solution is a must. In practical terms, the two (offered by mobile social network ad networks and independent vendors) are complementary – not competitive.)

Flirtomatic’s phenomenal numbers

Saving the best for last, a real highpoint was the inside track on Flirtomatic, a combination mobile social network and mobile flirting service with the ability to monetize mobile users through conversation with content such as virtual flowers, chocolate, and kisses.

Matt Dicks, Flirtomatic Commercial Director, reported the community counts over 1 million U.K. users and outlined how Flirtomatic turns people with a passing interest in flirting to spending customers.

The trick is retail 101 all over again: Delight the customer.

In a nutshell, Flirtomatic “makes newcomers feel welcome when they come in.” Some 55 percent of daily new users go active and send a Flirtogram (signaling they want to flirt); some 20 percent of users go on to spend with Flirtomatic on items such as virtual gifts or features to enhance their own profiles. Flirtomatic chalks up revenues of $10 per month per spending customer.

At the other end of the spectrum, Flirtomatic counts “over 100 million WAP impressions per month.” Where does mobile advertising pay dividends?

A whopping 84 percent of page impressions are generated on-portal (where Flirtomatic essentially plasters operator portals with banner ads). Next are ad networks with 12 percent, followed by paid search with 3 percent (a category Matt said shows significant growth as more users go off portal and explore mobile search services to get where they want to go).

So, operators have the volume now, but will this continue? Matt expects operators will rule the roost for another 2-3 years. After all, operators are the gatekeeper and the billing agent. An envious position between the content company and the customer indeed!

Flirtomatic has also made the move from virtual gifting to the real thing (overcoming a logistics nightmare to let members give the objects of their affection chocolate and sexy underwear). The results: 500 gave chocolates and 300 gave underwear. More important than the numbers, the experiment proves members are willing to give and receive real gifts using their mobile phone.

Read between the lines, and this behavior bodes well for brands and advertisers.

As Matt pointed out: It’s a golden opportunity for brands to get involved. Think of the sponsorship and sampling opportunities. Encourage members to send flowers (and plug Interflora in the process, for example.) Cross-sell and up-sell chocolates (you just sent your loved one Cadbury Creme Eggs, have you thought of trying a milk chocolate bar?).

The possibilities are endless – and the conversions can peg the needle. Matt walked us through the example of an early experiment Flirtomatic conducted with a popular brand of cider. Members could “shout a pint” to their buddies using their mobile phones. The recipients got a voucher on their mobile phone for a free pint of cider and the location of the nearest pub that would redeem it. The results: 348,000 members sent a pint to their friends over a two week period; CTR peaked at an impressive 10 percent.

Should mobile advertising stop at delivering a message? Or should it seek to unite the virtual and physical worlds (a topic I also examine in detail in the Netsize Guide 2009 on offer in the MSG sidebar)? The jury is out on this one, but the discussion will continue at MSG.

What do YOU think?

BTW: Matt kindly invited me to visit Flirtomatic during my next trip to London, an offer I will gladly take him up on. I have long admired the company and Mark Curtis, Flirtomatic founder and author of this  well-known book on disruption culture, whose views I also hope to capture in a thought-provoking podcast. If there was ever a mobile social community success story worth telling, then Flirtomatic is it!

Disclaimer:  Bango is an MSG supporter.

Another surprise, numerous requests during the launch party for me to autograph copies. We captured it all on film, conducting interviews with a who’s who of attendees including Blinck, Irdeto, T-Mobile Hungary, Universal McCann, Velti, YouTube, and Zed. A special treat for me:  Connecting with Thomas Husson, Forrester Senior Analyst, and a colleague whom I highly respect.

Thanks again to Stan Chesnais, Netsize CEO, and Alexander Vlasblom, Netsize Group Marketing Communications Director, and the Netsize team for making the evening possible and teaming up with MSG to plan the next step.

The aim is to make the Netsize Guide a completely interactive experience, and so encourage a lively discussion about the book, and with the 34 C-Level executives that kindly granted me interviews. I’ll have more details soon, so please check back regularly – and download your guide for free here.

Many of you have asked me why I am convinced this year’s Netsize Guide sets the bar. The reason is simple. In line with last year’s Netsize Guide (which I also wrote), this new edition draws from news, reports, and exclusive interviews to document the on-going impact of mobile on industry sectors ranging from content to commerce. But this year I had the green light to take it a bold step further.

Rather than try to identify the next big thing, I went for a big picture view of where mobile is now and where it is going.

In line with this  focus I emphasize the people-side of the equation, and examine the pivotal importance of relevancy and targeting in everything from mobile advertising to mobile gaming. I also explored how the rise of the mobile Web is blurring the boundaries between the virtual and physical worlds, allowing us to live work and play in a state of hyper-connectedness. From contactless payment services, to interactive mobile advertising campaigns that hyperlink real-world items and experiences using cameraphones, coupons or 2D barcodes, I have recounted the examples and collected the interviews that give a glimpse of the future.

Enjoy!

Gearing up for a whirlwind week in Barcelona for Mobile World Congress. Coverage on MSG will be thin (not enough time for deep-dive posts) but I assure you my follow-up analysis and in-depth video interviews will be worth the wait. Andrea Henninge – bless her! – has managed to squeeze in dozens of top-level interviews/briefings over the next five days at an average rate of one per hour – and even left me some time in the evenings for a few parties and get-togethers.

Top of the list is the launch party (Tuesday) for the Netsize Guide 2009, the 360-page mobile industry almanac I wrote on behalf of Netsize. Stan Chesnais, Netsize CEO, tells me it is the best one ever, and has already commissioned me to write next year’s (although we both struggle to think how we can top this one!).

If you are at Mobile World Congress (MWC), then don’t forget to pick up a paper copy. After the show, you can also download it for free on MSG. I look forward to your comments and feedback. I will continue to pursue this exciting theme (the morphing of the physical and virtual worlds with the mobile device at the center of this new convergence) on MSG, so watch for podcasts and video interviews that take this discussion to the next level.

And speaking of path-breaking, this week mobile search providers Taptu and Abphone debut their white papers on MSG.

(You can download the Taptu white paper by clicking the banner further down on the right-hand side, and you can find abphone’s white paper here.)

I am honored that both companies asked me for input. In the case of Taptu, it’s a comment. Abphone, on the other hand, asked me for a complete foreword.

In fact, Pierre Scokaert, Abphone CEO, sent me a personal email to thank me for my work:

I did read your foreword, and found it very good. It adds a lot of weight to our paper, and having someone as highly regarded as you speak of Abphone is always an honor.

However, I am equally grateful for the opportunity to lend my voice to his – and would like to take the opportunity here to thank Pierre and Yann Mondon, who heads up Abphone’s public relations.

Abphone

I don’t want to give away too much - and before my podcast with Pierre on precisely this topic – so here’s a short, high-level summary of the white paper, titled Snacking the Web.

In a nutshell, a shift in mobile search behavior (search has become a leisure activity, pursued in idle time and short sessions, and made popular by cutting-edge devices such as the iPhone) impacts how services can/should rank search results and determine relevancy. Abphone’s approach emphasizes click stream analysis, effectively drawing from the wisdom of crowds to determine which results users find relevant to the search queries, and ultimately improve rankings for future users.

In my view, this path-breaking approach borrows heavily from the insights outlined in Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software by Steven Johnson. Ants, Johnson writes, are not intelligent as single insects. But they develop a kind of collective intelligence – which he calls “emergent intelligence” – when they are interconnected in complex colonies.

In the case of mobile search, a single searcher, like an ant, can happen upon an excellent result. But there is no way for the searcher to leave a trail to benefit searchers who follow. As a result, each searcher must endure the same process (click distance) to find content they want. Abphone learns from its users, creating a feedback loop that potentially improves rankings for future users to deliver an overall positive user experience and help people find content they want in fewer clicks.

Allow me to close with my favorite quote from the abphone white paper: Pierre’s rant on Web transcoding

Take a gourmet meal, prepared by capable chefs, using only the finest ingredients. Then put everything in a blender and mix it into a pulp, as long as you need to, until you can drink it through a straw… This is what website transcoding is like.

I like it so much I have just added it to my slide deck for my presentation for the Qualcomm Plaza Internet Forum. The event now counts some 70 top-level attendees, and I am honored that Qualcomm feels the jump in attendance is due to my participation in it. Everywhere there are signs that MSG has indeed reached the tipping point…

Taptu

I am also proud that Taptu has decided to debut its white paper, titled Touch Search: A New Vision For Mobile Search, on MSG. True to the name, the white paper examines the shift in mobile search since the advent of the iPhone.

However, Taptu does more than acknowledge this trend; it has responded with a roadmap to encourage the innovation that content providers and brands agencies will require to deliver an optimized search and advertising experience for touch devices. I’ll have more on this next week, after I have had the pleasure of meeting today (Monday) with Andreas Bernstrom, Taptu COO, and had a closer look at the Taptu’s prototype search services for the Touch Web.

A highlight of the white paper is this trio of industry predictions. (Methodology is explained in the white paper.)

1)      Total global mobile search volume will grow rapidly from 63 million searches per day at the end of 2008 to 620 million in 2012 – almost 10 fold growth in just four years.

2)      The volume of searches from touch phones will grow even faster, to overtake the volume of searches from normal phones by the end of this year.

3)      By 2012, over 75 percent of all mobile searches will come from touch phones alone, representing less than 10 percent of the installed base of phones and just 20 percent of annual shipments.

A root question to consider: Will we have one Web (the Internet)? Or two (the Internet, and made-for-mobile sites)? Or three! (the Internet, the mobile websites, and the Touch Web)…

No one has the answers, but Taptu is preparing now for the challenges ahead.

My thanks again to Steve Ives, Taptu CEO, and Bob Last, Taptu Head of Business Development, for providing me the opportunity to contribute to the white paper.

Voice search

Finally, I would like to take this opportunity to give you a sneak peak of the next white paper in the pipeline: a joint project with Peggy Albright,  founder of Albright : Research : Media, assessing the performance of voice search services on the iPhone.

The white paper – which roadtests ChaCha, Google, and Vlingo — will launch in the week following MWC and be available for download on MSG. I have already twittered about some of the findings (they were too amazing to keep under wraps)…

Let’s just say that Google underwhelmed us – on all counts.

Disclaimer: ChaCha sponsored the white paper. The opinions in the white paper reflect those of Peggy Albright and Peggy Anne Salz, and do not reflect the opinions of the organizations referenced in the research.

But it was Jonathan’s presentation in London last week – like no other – that has strengthened my determination to create/cultivate the linkages/ exchanges that will allow us all (“every single one of us,” as Jonathan would say) to move the industry a giant step forward. One day after a speech to the 450+ attendees at Future of Mobile, where Jonathan launched into a harsh critique of the mobile advertising industry (in fact, the entire communications industry), he switched gears and replaced his entertaining rant with a realistic roadmap to change. I was fortunate to witness the birth of this powerful plan and overjoyed that I accidentally left my MP3 recorder running.

If you do nothing else today, listen to Jonathan’s speech here.

It outlines the seven steps that the industry can/should/must follow to get where it needs to be. Jonathan aptly titles this chapter of our great adventure No Way Back From Here. And the truth is. There isn’t.

By way of background, it all began with Vol. 1 of a book/concept Jonathan dubbed The Communication Ideal. (Many of you may not know the context – and therefore miss the pivotal importance of Vol. 2 ( No Way Back From Here). For this reason, Jonathan and I are developing a comprehensive yet highly accessible summary of key points to post on MSG to make sure we’re all on the same page. On December 8, Jonathan “will close the Communication Ideal Phase of the ‘Every Single One Of Us‘ movement.” December 9 marks the start of No Way Back From Here, a new venture and one that will be the most powerful ever because it combines pragmatism and passion. (Listen to the audio and you’ll understand…)

Cognitive dissonance (until now rampant in the mobile space) has been replaced by the recognition of a painful truth: Mobile advertising (and perhaps mobile as a whole, if we accept advertising is nothing more than a form of content) is broken. Now we (“every single one of us”) has to fix it. The good news: We are ready to seek solutions. The great news: It’s not just about Jonathan.

Granted, Jonathan is spearheading this re-think, but his outreach to stakeholders, shareholders and investors at all levels ensures this effort will deliver real value and tangible results. And if you think this has never been/can never be done, then think again. Mobile Advertising Netherlands, an effort involving the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and companies up and down the mobile advertising value chain, has recently produced research aimed at providing companies “insights in the possibilities and status of Mobile Advertising in the Netherlands.” Clearly, there is a blueprint here to follow – and Jonathan gets this better than most.

However, as I have I observed earlier, it’s not about Jonathan; it’s about every single one of us.

There is encouraging evidence that many of us see it this way. In fact, the need for new guidance and new approaches runs like a leit motif through my work and my encounters with execs over the last weeks/months. From briefings with brands such as Coca-Cola, to yesterday’s amazing exchange with Mauro Montanaro, Jamba CEO (soon to be branded Fox Mobile), the same message comes through loud and clear: Mobile is not about technology, it is about communication.

Insisting that mobile content/apps/advertising is about anything else is a flawed approach and “business as usual” is not an option.

The need for a re-think also echoed through many of the presentations during the Mobile Content conference and the invigorating discussions/exchanges that followed. You could sense this groundswell at Future of Mobile when six social media practitioners/industry bloggers – including Helen Keegan of Beep Marketing and James Whately of Whatelydude – took the stage to tell us where mobile has failed and why. (More on Helen’s take here.)

Take a wider view and you can pick up on similar messages and similar intensity across a wide range of sites and destinations, including London Calling (written by mobile advertising evangelist and esteemed colleague Andrew Grill), David Cushman’s FasterFuture and Tomi Ahonen’s Communities Dominate Brands – to name a few.

Connect the dots, as Tomi and I did, and change is underway – at all levels everywhere. (Tomi documented his moment of clarity in this eloquent must-read post.)

My take: If we accept that advertising is content (just today MoCoNews tells us Gap and Target have launched iPhone apps to spread brand love and boost their value-add) and we recognize the pivotal role of mobile and community in advertising (translated: mobile social networks, viral marketing and personal recommendation), then the only sustainable business model lies at the intersection of these new universal constants.

And, if you listen in on the audio, take special note of Tomi Ahonen’s introduction. Yes, there is a change in Jonathan’s thinking, but there is also a seismic shift in the mobile industry -and the epicenter for this is London!

(I am immediately reminded of The Medici Effect, a book by Frans Johansson that documents how, why and where diversity in ideas and experiences breeds breakthrough ideas/insights. They occur at intersections, and London is certainly the place where mobile and advertising meet. I’m going to read the book again, and suggest you also check it out…)

And before you dismiss the potential significance of London (and the U.K.) in the scheme of all things mobile, consider today’s stats from Nielsen and the story they tell (as reported by Brand Republic): Mobile Internet use has skyrocketed in the U.K. in 2008, growing eight times more than PC-based Internet.

The Mobile Media View report found that from Q2 to Q3 2008, the number of people using the mobile internet increased by 25 percent from 5.8 million to 7.3 million . That’s compared to 35.5 million surfing the wired Internet, up only 3 percent from Q2 to Q3. The mobile audience is younger than its PC-based counterpart, and flocking to sites that provide immediate information/value. In fact, mobile Internet traffic also accounts for the lion’s share of visits to majority of page visits to sites like BBC Weather, Sky Sports and Gmail.

Finally, as I have twittered and told my closest associates, MSG will be a proactive part of what Jonathan is leading and what we are all building. The first efforts will center on #1 of the seven-step plan: Documenting/assessing the lay of the land through primary research, interviews and analysis.

Understanding how things are now is the first step to affecting significant future change.

And speaking of analysis, interviews with Coca-cola, Jamba (Fox Mobile) and some 25 other key execs/thinkers will be featured (in Q&A format) in the Netsize Guide 2009, a book whose unifying themes are empowerment, engagement and expansion. I am proud that Netsize has commissioned me to write the guide and pleased to collaborate with George Yaryura, Netsize Strategic Marketing Manager, who shares my enthusiasm about the project and excitement about its potential impact.