In brief:

The avalanche of apps and app stores (nearly 70, according to WIP Connector) turns up the pressure on developers and other ecosystem parties to find ways to make money selling apps. How are apps discovered and promoted? And more importantly, how are these app emporiums and boutiques going to handle the simple CRM to encourage the all-important return purchase?

After all, it wasn’t so long ago that a study from Pinch Media, which analyzed over 30 million downloads from Apple’s App Store, reported that just 30 percent of people who buy an iPhone application actually use it the day after it was purchased. And the numbers plunge from there: after 20 days, less than 5 percent of those who downloaded an application are actively using it.

A lot of open questions. But one thing for certain: competitive differentiation is in the business model. And we know from the findings of a recent Netsize Mobile Trends Survey of +1,000 professionals and practitioners that the 4-Cs (Convenience, Compatibility, Choice and Charging) are key requirements for a winning app store (and so for the developers that hope to make a living selling their apps). Netsize is gearing up to release new (unpublished) survey results and a new report that reveals attitudes toward business models and what will enable real and significant app sales. Watch this space!

MAXIS, ONDEEGO & AMDOCS

What is the app store landscape and what are the monetization models?

This was also the topic at Mobile Web & Apps World Forum, a CTIA partner event organized by my esteemed colleague Ajit Jaokar. (Again, I congratulate Ajit on organizing a standing-room-only event dedicated to answering the tough questions around app fragmentation, monetization and how to make it all work. Thanks also for inviting me to speak during the SuperSession looking at mobile advertising and in-app opportunity moderated by mobile authority Chetan Sharma. It was an excellent session with Joe Lally from MTV Networks and Jerry Rocha from Nielsen and Gary Schwartz, CEO of Impact Mobile, and one that provides a great deal of material for future MSG analysis and follow-up.)

However, it was the session on personalization and content discovery, presented by Mike Lurye, Amdocs Interactive, Director of Product Marketing, that got people thinking about the business value of granular subscriber intelligence (anonymized) and ways it can be used to get consumers to the content they will appreciate and without making them search for it. To drive home the point Mike didn’t use marketing-speak. He used case studies from mobile operators in the U.S., Europe and Asia Pacific. (You can download all the speaker presentations here.)

I used the opportunity of our in-person meeting to discuss the larger issues around app store marketing and pick up on a fascinating conversation we had weeks earlier (in preparation for Mobile Monday Austria) delving into the tough choices facing developers.

Certainly, developers can jockey for position in the Apple App Store (and others), where getting featured (placed where people can find you easily) is the only way to build a business. But developers can also align themselves with retailers/operators that seek differentiation through innovative business models emphasizing customer service, easy discovery or local culture.

The latter works for Malaysian mobile operator Maxis. I am a great admirer of the carrier’s app store focus and mission: “to nurture and foster interesting developer applications for our community.” (This and more in this must-see video interview with Nava Wathan, Director 1Maxis, Maxis Communications.) Maxis has become the place to go for “something that is Malaysian.” Surely, many more mobile operators can pursue a similar strategy to stand out from the crowd (and build a successful business for their business ecosystems of developers and customers).

At the other end of the spectrum, Ondeego also “gets” it. It launched AppCentral, a mobile app store for the enterprise last fall becoming the first mobile application store meeting the unique needs of the enterprise workers and their IT departments. For enterprise employees a one-stop shop means that they can select what they need (serious apps) to do their job. For developers it means a channel to a difficult to access market and a chance to sell their productivity and enterprise apps direct to professionals who will likely buy.

PODCAST INTERVIEW WITH MIKE LURYE

First, credit where credit is due here. Although people have tweeted about the simplicity and originality of my views on the evolution of the app landscape and the marketing strategies that will help everyone make money, it was Mike who came up with the popular Supermarkets/Farmers Markets analogy.

I caught up with Mike in-person following the Web & Apps World Forum event to talk about marketplaces and ideal models for making money – now.

Here an excerpt:

APP STORES & STOREFRONTS: “The main difference between an app store and a traditional digital commerce storefront is actually not that it sells apps, but that it is based on a certain business model that’s been pioneered by Apple. Stores selling apps have been around for a very long time but Apple changed the game because they set up a business model that opened up the opportunity to get to market for a much broader range of developers and they did so by establishing very straightforward business terms that are the same for everybody.” But not all app stores must sell apps. China Mobile, for example, sells traditional digital merchandise (ringtones and wallpapers and so on) on the storefront they call their app store.

MAXIS MODEL: This mobile operator has cleverly defined the segment it will go after: the local population and local developers. “So, their store is never going to be very big, they acknowledge that. They are not trying to compete, they are trying to co-exist….This is a good strategy because when you know your customer and when you know what you want to offer to your customer that is valuable to them, and you know who is going to build it which is a local developer community, you are poised for success.”

FARMERS MARKETS: The close customer relationship is what makes a farmers market special. And mobile operators have a close customer relationship they can build on – if they recognize their real role. “The owner of the farmers’ market doesn’t get in between [the] transaction…There is a direct [customer] relationship and the owner of the farmers’ market acts as a facilitator. They make it work.” How? Through payment services, personalization insights and scale.

CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH: If you are about to pack, think again because it may have peaked. Apple found gold in apps and now everybody is moving to California (literally). “Now, guess what, not everybody who came to California at the time of gold rush became rich, some people did, but most actually didn’t, so that is what is going on right now. Everybody and their brother wants to have an app store; some people have a well thought out strategy. Maxis is an example of that. Some people are doing essentially a ‘me-too’ kind of a thing, and there is actually nothing wrong with that in principle as long as you realize that that’s what you’re doing.”

WHITE LABEL: Mike says it’s a low-risk model. The not-so-good news: it’s unlikely to build subscriber loyalty. “There is no leverage of the operator’s unique capabilities, there is no more value for the subscriber to purchase an application in that app store versus the original app store from the white label supplier themselves. There might be some cost advantage…but fundamentally it’s not a model that will differentiate the operator.

TAKE A PAGE FROM AMAZON: Personalization has made Amazon a success. “This is the business they are in: the business of personalization. They are offering it now as a platform to others. You do that search, you bring results not only from Amazon, but [also] from Amazon’s competitors and that’s OK by Amazon because they build such a sophisticated platform that now empowers [the] ecosystem.
***
MY TAKE: Are we on the brink of new business models or is history repeating itself? And — even if it is very much a repeat of the mobile portals – what will guarantee success for the developers and retailers this time around? At the moment, developers have a handful of choices: boost word-of-mouth promotion (tough and tedious, which is why Mob4Hire’s peer app recommendation is an interesting one to watch), mobile advertising (complicated and unpredictable, which is why we are all searching for better ways to deliver the right advertising to the right demographic) and placement (tricky and transient, which is why GetJar has cleverly created a model where developers pay for shelf space). What role will personalization play (even in a pre-paid environment)? My ongoing research into recommenders brings me together with mobile operators already wringing value out of granular analytics to help people discover content they’ll likely appreciate. A prime example is Hong Kong’s CSL, an operator I showcase in my upcoming report, that has harnessed personalization to support My Net, its own (branded) mobile Internet service. Clearly, personalization is moving up the business agenda (as it should) because it’s a way mobile operators can generate revenues (helping people find and buy what they want) and stay in the game.

* * *

LISTEN TO THE PODCAST HERE: [13:00]

Disclaimer: Netsize is an MSG supporter. Amdocs is not an MSG supporter.  However, ChangingWorlds, a company acquired by Amdocs, has published a by-lined thought leadership column series on  MSG. Peggy Anne Salz has also spoken at invitation-only  thought leadership events organized by Amdocs for its operator clients.

On the heels of the extremely popular posts on Blyk and MSG’s exclusive interview with Pekka Ala-Pietila, CEO and Co-founder of Blyk, the timing is perfect to deep-dive into Orange UK’s mobile advertising aspirations now that it has formally folded Blyk’s MVNO activities into its wider strategy.

The first service that draws from Blyk’s mobile advertising model – an approach built from the ground up to encourage a dialogue between brands and people that want to her their message by delivering people relevant advertising in tune with their preferences and profiles – is Orange Monkey.

The first Pay As You Go (PAYG) package for the U.K. market offers free music to customers when they top up their mobile. (Although PaidContent suggests the service is not about free music since the tunes you get to listen to (not own) when you top up add up to about 600 minutes each month. This translates into GBP2.14 ($3.53) for customers regularly paying GBP30 ($49.23) in phone credits. But that may just be picking nits since people are getting music at no extra cost.)

More about Monkey: it provides exclusive music, pre-release tracks and other content from Universal Music’s catalogue and relies on British broadcaster Channel 4 to get the word out to the target demographic (16-34 year-olds with mass market phones) via the Channel 4 portfolio including 4Music, billed the most watched music channel in the U.K. A clever twist and nod to the power of multi-channel promotion: The 4Music team will be the editorial voice of the official Monkey website which will carry news, artist features, playlists, exclusive content and competitions. (Check out the Orange site for more details and a video demo of the service.)

The promotion is about building buzz, loyalty and community. So, where does/will Blyk’s mobile advertising approach come in?

The focus on engagement and social networks is baked into the offer. As well as free music, Monkey offers customers free texts, allows for playlists to be shared on social networks, and it “delivers great offers from relevant brands direct to their mobile.”

Prior to the Monkey launch I was pre-briefed by Marc Overton, Orange VP of Wholesale, Business Development & Partnerships, who walked me through the concept and – more importantly – where brands and Blyk fit in the scheme of things.

AN EXCERPT OF OUR Q&A

Q: To backtrack for a moment, Orange essentially owns Blyk and the capabilities it has built to deliver targeted information and ads. What is the plan here?

A: We have been keen to get this [Blyk's end-to-end capability] as a core part of the Orange organization. We already have mobile advertising and cross-platform capability, and for us, this allows us to have fundamentally different relationship with our customers. It’s not about ad hoc adverts or repurposing display adverts; this is about targeting and tailored information delivered in a timely fashion as part of a broader proposition that has great benefits.

Q: Blyk has run over 2,500 campaigns. What sets the stage for what we might see from Orange?

A: The Lucozade campaign stands out. It gave out vouchers and consumers could redeem them for a free bottle of Lucozade. The response rates were overpowering just based on a [Blyk] subscriber base of 200,000. If we can start delivering that to our subscriber base of 16 million, then we can generate results and create something quite special. (By way of background, the Lucozade Energy campaign, documented in this case study, delivered vouchers via a bespoke WAP site Blyk members could visit to read about the promotion. A click on a link on the site sent an SMS voucher sent to their handset. Voucher requests from the Blyk activity accounted for 35 percent of total requests for 1 percent of the media spend.)

To do this you need the ability to design an end-to end creative campaign that delivers campaign and targeted to consumers. It’s something that isn’t easy to do. To do it ourselves means we would be sitting here in a year to 18 months having a similar conversation. It [the partnership with Blyk] gets us to market ahead of the rest of the competition in the U.K., and gives us the experts [Blyk support] that have been doing it and establishing the category so we can have these conversations [with brands] and off the back of it we can do develop some unique and unrivaled propositions.

Q: Such as?

A: Keep in mind that we have also signed a strategic partnership with Barclays in the U.K. to develop mobile payments and that will come online in the next year to 8 months. Linking mobile payments with mobile messaging – being able to tell people about relevant offers and where to redeem those offers – is going to be an exciting proposition, particularly combined with location services.

At a larger level, it’s about us as an operator having a deeper relationship with our customers and giving them assistance beyond telling them what their bill looks like. We are the place they can come to for great offers and benefits that they wouldn’t know existed if we didn’t have this [advertising] ability.

From an awareness level – telling customers about new products coming to market and get that community, dialogue and click-through going on between customers and brands – we are looking to target different segments with different types of messaging and campaigns. It’s a bit of a journey, but we’re confident we’ll get the right mix.

Q: What does this push look like on a practical level? Who is in charge of what and what is my relationship – as a brand or advertiser – with Orange?

A: Orange will do the ad sales, supported in this by Blyk. I see this as a team effort and the way we work together and reward each other is based on that team working. It is without a doubt a different skills set that Blyk has built, and there is a credibility and value to having Blyk support our ad sales force.

Q: You mention other segments and I left us hanging in our last post with the observation that operators can use the Blyk approach to target more than youth. What are your plans in this direction? Will we see a Blyk-like offer for customers over the age of 24?

A: Absolutely. We’re keen to offer this capability to all our customer segments. The model will likely change depending on the segment and type of customer, so it is our intent to have this as a core capability for our media business. We’re not restricting it just to the youth market and not just to consumers; it will be business professionals as well. In our view, Blyk has created a highly intimate way for a mobile operator to communicate with its customers, and it shouldn’t just be restricted to young people.

Q: Would it be a messaging option you offer to brands? Or would you use this to promote your own offers and perhaps also do your part to solve the content discovery dilemma: surfacing all the apps and content people can’t find and buy because mobile search doesn’t cut it yet?

A: It’s a conversation and we could us it to draw customers’ attention to a variety of offers, including our own [two-for-one price movie deal] Orange Wednesdays. We could also use it to launch propositions for [content/app] partners, or simply package it up for advertisers. Filling up the pipeline won’t be a problem.

Q: Earlier you referred to Orange as a ‘media company.’ That’s very different thinking for a mobile operator. Can you elaborate on this strategy and how it ties back in with the group and what I imagine would be your big-picture goal to offer brands a cross-media approach?

A: You’re right about the cross-media possibilities. That’s the group ambition and one that brings together other [group] capabilities such as our heritage as an Internet provider and portal provider with Wanadoo, our content production facilities in Spain and our mobile ad sales force in the U.K. We have capabilities – from a media perspective – that other operators don’t have. It’s a core part of our strategy to leverage these assets and capabilities and relationships into the media world. We’re doing a launch in a couple of weeks and talking to the media agencies about our ambitions in this space. We can brief you on this, if you like. This is a serious part of our business and the upcoming announcements demonstrate this.

Q: Sure thing –let’s connect then!

MONKEY BUSINESS

Since Marc couldn’t go into the specifics of the Monkey launch, I checked back in with Mat Sears, Orange Head Corporate & Consumer Communications, to fill in the gaps around the service and find out how it’s done to date.

Predictably, Mat couldn’t provide stats on a service that only launched July 30th. However, he did say the offer is “flying off the shelves.” Will advertising follow? Orange is getting in gear, and MMS and SMS ads (again, following the Blyk blueprint) are next on the agenda. The focus is on lifestyle companies around music (clothes, cosmetics, soft drinks), rather than other music labels or individual artists (extending their message to the community through a dialogue), although we may also see some campaigns to promote music and related events.

WHAT WORKS?

My take: Orange ranks high in my book as a mobile operator making the inevitable shift from access company (telco) to audience company (media player). It was one of the first operators out of the gates with a comprehensive mobile advertising offer, opening its Orange World portal to advertisers back in August 2006. Incorporating Blyk’s operations is a logical step in the strategy and choosing to focus on segments beyond youth makes hard business sense. I wonder if Orange will crack the code and grab the attention of the prosumers or any of the other potentially lucrative segments Novarra outlined it is path-breaking report. (Look for more on Novarra, next in the series Getting Personal, a special MSG report on personalization technologies.)

While it’s a smart move for Orange to target other segments, it begs the question: how should Orange tweak the Blyk blueprint to achieve its business objectives?

Free content/services works with cash-strapped youth. But how do you get the attention of affluent mobile professionals or life-stressed muli-taskers? (And let’s not forget the same dilemma faces Blyk copy-cat service providers such as Croatia’s ad-funded MVNO Tomato Plus and Gigafone, a mobile marketing services group that borrowed more than a page from Blyk’s founding concept.)

Happy coincidence that I was thinking this through when I bumped and connected with Alan Moore, an esteemed colleague and renowned social media/engagement marketing  pundit you’ll see a lot more of on MSG. (In fact you can get in the mood for our regular laid-back, hands-on look at what YOU need to know about social media marketing by checking out my two-part interview with him on behalf of bnetTV here.)

So, what are the do’s and don’ts for Orange (and really any company serious about advertising) moving forward?

1)   Think beyond offers that are about content and apps. Youth may like them, but the real value may lie in the mashups that bring it all together (with calendars, contact books, communities, you name it!) to simplify/enhance our lives on mobile.

2)    Don’t get hung up on free. As Alan pointed out in an invigorating rant on Skype, and again in his must-read post, Spotify is a case book example of how functionality (allowing people to do something with the content they get for free and share the end-results with the people who matter to them most) beats out freebee. As Alan puts it: “Last.FM or Spotify have understood that “FREE” is not the kicker, it’s the quality of the service that ‘enables’ its users in a rich variety of ways. Playlists, recommendations, personalization, discovery, contextualization, location, sharing are again part of this new vocabulary.”

3)    Think big – and think networked. Enabling people to interact with content on their terms is they way things are. Get it right and reach will follow.

The bottom line: As illustrated numerous times within this section, the data dominance and superior browsing experience allowed by smartphones is undeniable.  Making mobile Web user experience smooth, easy, and compelling – as these handsets often do – is shown to consistently drive mobile data traffic.  That many consumers probably can’t tell and don’t care about the difference between mobile websites and HTML sites is also testament to technical developments.

***

GARTNER SAYS THE NUMBER OF MOBILE PAYMENT users will increase by 70 percent this year.  Its report claims that 73.4 million users of mpayment in 2009 would represent a leap of 70.4 percent from 2008.  By 2012, it says mobile payment will reach more than 190 million, more than 3 percent of total mobile users worldwide, attaining a level at which it will be considered “mainstream.”

Gartner defines a mobile payment as paying for a product or service using mobile technology such as a short message service (SMS), Wireless Application Protocol (WAP), Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD), and Near Field Communication (NFC). It includes transactions that use cash, bank accounts or debit and credit cards, as well as non-carrier stored value accounts, such as travel cards, gift cards or PayPal. It does not include transactions that use mobile operators’ billing systems, such as purchase of mobile content or telebanking by mobile to the service center via an interactive voice response (IVR) system. Source

The bottom line: Although the definition of mobile payment is ambiguous here, these figures demonstrate that the mass market is slowly growing confident in using their mobile to pay for and transfer money.  Much effort has been made to foster consumer confidence in the micropayment mobile payment space, and the adoption of mobile banking technologies still varies drastically from region to region.  There are regulatory and security challenges to overcome, particularly with the emergence of NFC technologies, but these figures give strong reason for hope.

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SPEECH APPLICATIONS ARE TO TRIPLE by 2014 according to a new Datamonitor report. The report claims that as we get used to using mobile computing devices in ‘hands-busy’, ‘eyes-busy’ environments, speech recognition technologies are expected to gain considerable traction. The global market for advanced speech recognition (ASR) in mobile handsets will increase from $32.7 million in 2009 to $99.6 million in 2014. Meanwhile ASR in-vehicle telematics is expected to grow from $64.3 million in 2009 to 208.2 million by 2014. Source

The bottom line: An exciting array of new voice applications has been promised for some time now, without seeming to gain mass market adoption.  This Datamonitor report suggests the market is still full of potential, and with technologies emerging to intuitively allow users to control device functionality with their voice, these projections may herald the beginning of significant penetration.

Peggy adds: A space to watch is voice-activated mobile search, where “Just say what you want,” the guiding principle of voice search to avoid complex and confusing navigation, and to provide a shortcut to information (in the network) and services (on the mobile device) the user wants, is particularly compelling.

***

OPERA’S MINI BROWSER RECORDED MORE THAN 23.4 million users worldwide in April, a jump of 140 percent from the same period one year ago. Page views in America grew 129 percent over the last year; unique users grew 11.8 percent; and there was an average of 198 page views per user in April. U.S. carrier subscribers are said to be viewing more data-intensive pages than those in any other country. Opera said the average page viewed is about 32KB compressed (almost 320KB uncompressed).

Top 10 sites accessed via Opera Mini in the U.S., by number of unique users:

1. Google.com
2. Facebook.com
3. MySpace.com
4. Wikipedia.org
5. YouTube.com (up from 7)
6. Yahoo.com
7. NYTimes.com (down from 5)
8. AccuWeather.com
9. My.Opera.com
10. ESPN.com

Source

The bottom line: The mobile Internet is continuing to see heavy usage and mass adoption, although we should remember these figures are largely coming from BlackBerry handsets operating Opera. The handsets do have massive appeal, as clearly does mobile Internet content.  However, we might also remember that, as a corporate device of choice, their users may not always be paying the bills

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AN AENEAS STRATEGY STUDY OF U.K. ATTITUDE TOWARDS mobile advertising found that 64 percent of consumers would grant permission to receive mobile advertising if they were incentivized.  The majority of the 1,002 consumers surveyed had a more negative initial attitude, but this changed if advertising was made relevant (65 percent positive), permission was asked (67 percent positive), or if the consumer was in control (69 percent positive). It placed mobile amongst the most popular traditional media (print, outdoor, and television) and above the Internet and radio. 

The research also revealed that 52 percent claim engagement with the brands they love is important, five advertisements per day is most accepted by consumers, 52 percent of consumers doesn’t mind listening to a brand message while waiting for someone to pick up the phone, and 54 percent would send an interesting offer they have received to  friends and family

Tarik Fawzi, of Aeneas Strategy Consulting and Management, commented: ”The consumer research shows some unexpected results regarding consumer attitude towards mobile advertising. Also mobile is compared with other media. This shows consumers know what they want and are open towards mobile advertising, if it is offered on their terms.” Source

The bottom line: This study shows once again that relevancy and control of mobile advertising are critical to its consumer acceptance and success.  The challenge mobile advertising faces is in making campaigns relevant, and offering control, but still maintaining a strong enough number of eyeballs to keep brands spending.

Peggy adds: This consumer research will also be discussed during Mobile Advertising U.K. (June 15 in London), when MSG, which was commissioned to research and write the report in collaboration with Aeneas, will present key findings from interviews with 15+ industry executives and influencers.

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41 PERCENT OF U.S. CONSUMERS ARE LIKELY TO PURCHASE a multimedia handset with a data plan as their next phone, says a new study by the Yankee Group. BlackBerry and Apple are the top two brands, considered by 44 percent and 30 percent of prospective buyers, respectively.

Meanwhile, in enterprise, the same analyst claims that 75 percent of small to medium businesses anticipate some reduction in their business technology investments due to the economy. End-user software and hardware are the two areas that will experience the biggest budget cuts. Source

The bottom line: These two nuggets from Yankee illustrate the ongoing consumer affair with smartphones, and the rich data consumption experience they allow, in the face of predictable technology cutbacks which the environment has imposed on smaller businesses. It’s tough out there, but consumers remain enthused about compelling mobile data experiences, if the data plan is right.