Mobile Groove

This month was marked by a string of good news stories that speak volumes about the state of mobile marketing and advertising. From the milestone acquisition of AdMob by Google for a cool $750 million in stock, to the news that Millennial Media had raised nearly $16 million in growth capital, to the milestone statement from

In brief: Regular columnist and contributor Jim Levey looks at the battle brewing in the living room. Cable companies, telcos or Internet giants – who will control (and monetize) our content experiences? Look for companies that successfully wield personalization and recommendation technologies to deliver content we appreciate and advertising we accept to be in the winner’s circle.

Imagine a living room where a large flat screen wirelessly attached to a set top box hangs from the wall. You enter a personal code into the set top box that recognizes your profile; the screen welcomes you to a portal where there are no channels only menus with links to personalized content and apps that range from social networking to commerce to premium content and entertainment. A blinking icon reminds to you to record Wimbledon while an ad from Wilson invites you to view their latest rackets. As you click the record button, you slide out the keypad on your remote and navigate to the Wilson site where you purchase a new tennis racket. Payment for the racket is included in your monthly cable invoice.

Sounds like science fiction? Hardly. We are on the cusp of next generation iTV (interactive television), services that will elevate our viewing experience. Advertising will also be transformed, paving the way for two-way communications that enable brands to target households according to key demographics and other information collected by the set top box (STBs). Mobile devices, widely regarded to be the remote control of our digital lives, will surely play an important role in this scenario. (Mobile already has a central spot if we consider how people reach to their phones to cast their vote for talent shows, follow sports and read the gossip during soap operas.)

The promise of being able to access the wide open Internet and everything in between on your TV may be a while away, but the battle for the living room, the one that will decide who monetizes our content consumption and who cashes in on the commercial messages we consume, is being fought now.

Best positioned in my view are the cable companies, who have the trump because they own the signal into the home and have a trusted relationship with subscribers. They also benefit from established business partnerships with broadcast and cable network programmers, that receive billion-dollar fees for entertainment content.

But there are other players lining up to stake their turf.

In brief: MSearchGroove proudly steps up to the plate and hosts the Carnival of the Mobilists for the first time.

The last weekend in August and I spent much of it at a two-day summer festival in Siegburg, Germany, where I’m based. I’ve been on a natural high with good friends, great food and a wonderful line-up of home-grown entertainment. But not all the excitement was at the local fairgrounds. The Mobilists have also come up with a mix of thought leadership and must-read posts that give us new perspectives on mobile and start our adrenalin flowing.

Andy Favell and the team at mobiThinking.com do us all a great service and compile a comprehensive list of mobile industry facts and figures. The first in this series focuses on the size of the mobile Web and the implications for marketers. What do the numbers tell us? Should investors/companies take advantage of the economic slowdown and move ahead while others are standing still? Read on, find out and tell us what you think.

Another round of important mobile stats comes from Jose Colucci at Mobile Strategy, who continues the countdown of the 12 Reasons Why Canadian Banks Should Really Offer Mobile Services.

In brief: Inma Martinez, a leading digital media strategist and advisor to venture capitalists, joins with MSearchGroove to co-host Mobile Groove, a no-holds-barred commentary on the companies and trends that matter most. Inma, who has been referred to as a “free radical� by Red Herring and Fast Company, speaks out on the rise and demise of Blyk, what went wrong at Spinvox, what we can expect from Microsoft. High on her investment radar: a new fund that could give startups in Europe the financial muscle they need.

When I first met Inma Martinez at Mobile 2.0 Europe I was struck by the depth of her knowledge and the strength of her determination to speak her mind. I made the decision to work with her at some level. A few in-person meetings in London (where she is based) and many Skype chats later we are proud to take the wraps off Mobile Groove, a monthly podcast series here at MSearchGroove that will provide short, digestible and insightful commentary on what’s hot in news, investments and developments impacting the mobile space at all levels.

Mobile Groove will air on the last Friday of every month and consist of three thought-provoking segments: The Big Picture, a wrap of the month’s news and views; Street Groove, an informed discussion of the companies and technologies sure to rock the mobile space; and The Radar, a roundup of talk on the street and what is highest on investors’ radars.

OUTRAGEOUS & INSIGHTFUL

The first in the series kicks of with a look at the the rise and fall of ad-funded MVNO Blyk, the controversy surrounding voice-to-text provider Spinvox and an in-depth look at the key platform players (Apple, Google and Microsoft) – particularly the news via Taiwan handset makers that Microsoft plans to adopt a dual platform strategy to promote its Windows Mobile OS (operating system) and, thus, take aim at both Android- and iPhone-based platforms.

Inma, who stands out as an über-connected advisor to venture capital firms, also gives us the inside track a new fund by entrepreneurs for entrepreneurs that may spell relief for European startups and smart people with brilliant ideas.

In brief: An analysis of what Blyk’s partnership with Vodafone Netherlands really means, an exclusive Q&A with Blyk co-founder and CEO, Pekka Ala-Pietilä, and some big questions mobile operators can’t ignore: Why is advertising the major revenue source for every mass media except mobile? And how do operators plan to compete with media and Internet companies to capture the most value in mobile media?

It’s been a bit quiet at MSG as I finalize the plans and partnerships that will transform MSG into a media company and lay the groundwork for an ambitious mobile marketing publishing project that has already earned the endorsement of several major industry organizations. (More in a press release soon via RealWire, a global news release distribution service and MSG partner that, like the online media industry that is its focus, is always-on, always-connected and always professional, which is why I can recommend them so highly.)

But I couldn’t end the week without posting an analysis of the exciting (but not unexpected) news from Blyk, combination mobile engagement media company, mobile advertising startup and MVNO, that it had signed an deal with to roll out its branded service in partnership with Vodafone Netherlands and to share revenues with the operator.

Connect the dots, and Blyk has executed on the game-changing strategy that Antti Öhling, Blyk co-founder and CEO U.K., outlined in May in this exclusive Q&A. In it he provides solid logic for “making the switch” from MVNO (a model he called a “proof of concept”) to youth engagement media. The reasons range from scale and speed (both accelerated through partnership with operators) to the ones that matter most to advertisers: reach and engagement.

Editor’s note: Apple has the first-mover advantage, and its App Store sets the bar. The result is a buoyant market for apps and ample opportunity for fast-followers to (perhaps) do one better. Benjamin E. Jacobsen – Co-Founder of Mobspot, Inc., a company championing “Mobile App developers and App users on any platform,” and a new author to MSG – gives his take on the size of the market and the prospects for other players.

IS THE APP INDUSTRY WORTH NEARLY $7 BILLION? Will Apple do nearly a billion dollars in revenue in its first year of the App Store? While the exact numbers are debatable, you can’t ignore the monster success Apple has had with its store (which also drives device sales, by the way). How much money has Apple made? This post, titled Apple has made no more than $20 – 45m in revenue from the app store, gives us a figure. One I might add is not too shabby for a product yet to see its first birthday. What makes this more remarkable is that Apple has captured between 1-2 percent total market share worldwide (including feature phones), and only 10.8 percent share worldwide in the smartphone segment. Few (save Juniper) have taken a stab at valuing the total app industry.

StatCounter’s recent announcement that Opera Mini surpasses the iPhone’s Safari as the most popular web browser for mobile phones is testament to the potential of the greater industry. Opera Mini is the most downloaded Java application of all time. So, while I am excited about the enthusiasm for the iPhone, I find the conversation is missing a big-picture perspective. The question we should be asking is: What is the total app market worldwide really worth? After all, Opera Mini’s success story underlines the potential of the app market beyond just the iPhone.

So, allow me to take a shot at valuing the total app industry, worldwide, for pay-apps (apps you pay to own on your phone). This is the total value excluding Of course, we have to exclude free apps like Opera Mini.

In a nutshell: If Apple can do nearly $1 billion in sales its first year and has 10.8 percent smartphone market share worldwide, how much is the total smartphone app market worth?

This post from AppleInsider tells us that Apple could do $777 million in App Store downloads in 2009.

A 10.8 percent worldwide smartphone market share implies that the total mobile app market is $7.2 billion, if all smartphone users spend as much on apps as iPhone users do. We know that this won’t be the case. A much more likely scenario is one in which smartphone users will spend far less.

So, let’s assume users with these handsets (other than the iPhone) spend half (50 percent) of what iPhone users on App downloads. Now let’s do the math.

$7.2 billion is the extrapolated industry valuation of direct revenue from apps if consumers spent as much on apps for other platforms as they do the iPhone. Let’s take $7.2 billion minus $777 million (iPhone app share), and multiply that by 50 percent. That gives us a valuation of $3.2 billion for the non-iPhone app market, or $4 billion total, including the iPhone.

($7.2 billion – $777 million) * 0.5 = $3.2 billion non-iPhone app market.)