The bottom line: As illustrated numerous times within this section, the data dominance and superior browsing experience allowed by smartphones is undeniable.  Making mobile Web user experience smooth, easy, and compelling – as these handsets often do – is shown to consistently drive mobile data traffic.  That many consumers probably can’t tell and don’t care about the difference between mobile websites and HTML sites is also testament to technical developments.

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GARTNER SAYS THE NUMBER OF MOBILE PAYMENT users will increase by 70 percent this year.  Its report claims that 73.4 million users of mpayment in 2009 would represent a leap of 70.4 percent from 2008.  By 2012, it says mobile payment will reach more than 190 million, more than 3 percent of total mobile users worldwide, attaining a level at which it will be considered “mainstream.”

Gartner defines a mobile payment as paying for a product or service using mobile technology such as a short message service (SMS), Wireless Application Protocol (WAP), Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD), and Near Field Communication (NFC). It includes transactions that use cash, bank accounts or debit and credit cards, as well as non-carrier stored value accounts, such as travel cards, gift cards or PayPal. It does not include transactions that use mobile operators’ billing systems, such as purchase of mobile content or telebanking by mobile to the service center via an interactive voice response (IVR) system. Source

The bottom line: Although the definition of mobile payment is ambiguous here, these figures demonstrate that the mass market is slowly growing confident in using their mobile to pay for and transfer money.  Much effort has been made to foster consumer confidence in the micropayment mobile payment space, and the adoption of mobile banking technologies still varies drastically from region to region.  There are regulatory and security challenges to overcome, particularly with the emergence of NFC technologies, but these figures give strong reason for hope.

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SPEECH APPLICATIONS ARE TO TRIPLE by 2014 according to a new Datamonitor report. The report claims that as we get used to using mobile computing devices in ‘hands-busy’, ‘eyes-busy’ environments, speech recognition technologies are expected to gain considerable traction. The global market for advanced speech recognition (ASR) in mobile handsets will increase from $32.7 million in 2009 to $99.6 million in 2014. Meanwhile ASR in-vehicle telematics is expected to grow from $64.3 million in 2009 to 208.2 million by 2014. Source

The bottom line: An exciting array of new voice applications has been promised for some time now, without seeming to gain mass market adoption.  This Datamonitor report suggests the market is still full of potential, and with technologies emerging to intuitively allow users to control device functionality with their voice, these projections may herald the beginning of significant penetration.

Peggy adds: A space to watch is voice-activated mobile search, where “Just say what you want,” the guiding principle of voice search to avoid complex and confusing navigation, and to provide a shortcut to information (in the network) and services (on the mobile device) the user wants, is particularly compelling.

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OPERA’S MINI BROWSER RECORDED MORE THAN 23.4 million users worldwide in April, a jump of 140 percent from the same period one year ago. Page views in America grew 129 percent over the last year; unique users grew 11.8 percent; and there was an average of 198 page views per user in April. U.S. carrier subscribers are said to be viewing more data-intensive pages than those in any other country. Opera said the average page viewed is about 32KB compressed (almost 320KB uncompressed).

Top 10 sites accessed via Opera Mini in the U.S., by number of unique users:

1. Google.com
2. Facebook.com
3. MySpace.com
4. Wikipedia.org
5. YouTube.com (up from 7)
6. Yahoo.com
7. NYTimes.com (down from 5)
8. AccuWeather.com
9. My.Opera.com
10. ESPN.com

Source

The bottom line: The mobile Internet is continuing to see heavy usage and mass adoption, although we should remember these figures are largely coming from BlackBerry handsets operating Opera. The handsets do have massive appeal, as clearly does mobile Internet content.  However, we might also remember that, as a corporate device of choice, their users may not always be paying the bills

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AN AENEAS STRATEGY STUDY OF U.K. ATTITUDE TOWARDS mobile advertising found that 64 percent of consumers would grant permission to receive mobile advertising if they were incentivized.  The majority of the 1,002 consumers surveyed had a more negative initial attitude, but this changed if advertising was made relevant (65 percent positive), permission was asked (67 percent positive), or if the consumer was in control (69 percent positive). It placed mobile amongst the most popular traditional media (print, outdoor, and television) and above the Internet and radio. 

The research also revealed that 52 percent claim engagement with the brands they love is important, five advertisements per day is most accepted by consumers, 52 percent of consumers doesn’t mind listening to a brand message while waiting for someone to pick up the phone, and 54 percent would send an interesting offer they have received to  friends and family

Tarik Fawzi, of Aeneas Strategy Consulting and Management, commented: ”The consumer research shows some unexpected results regarding consumer attitude towards mobile advertising. Also mobile is compared with other media. This shows consumers know what they want and are open towards mobile advertising, if it is offered on their terms.” Source

The bottom line: This study shows once again that relevancy and control of mobile advertising are critical to its consumer acceptance and success.  The challenge mobile advertising faces is in making campaigns relevant, and offering control, but still maintaining a strong enough number of eyeballs to keep brands spending.

Peggy adds: This consumer research will also be discussed during Mobile Advertising U.K. (June 15 in London), when MSG, which was commissioned to research and write the report in collaboration with Aeneas, will present key findings from interviews with 15+ industry executives and influencers.

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41 PERCENT OF U.S. CONSUMERS ARE LIKELY TO PURCHASE a multimedia handset with a data plan as their next phone, says a new study by the Yankee Group. BlackBerry and Apple are the top two brands, considered by 44 percent and 30 percent of prospective buyers, respectively.

Meanwhile, in enterprise, the same analyst claims that 75 percent of small to medium businesses anticipate some reduction in their business technology investments due to the economy. End-user software and hardware are the two areas that will experience the biggest budget cuts. Source

The bottom line: These two nuggets from Yankee illustrate the ongoing consumer affair with smartphones, and the rich data consumption experience they allow, in the face of predictable technology cutbacks which the environment has imposed on smaller businesses. It’s tough out there, but consumers remain enthused about compelling mobile data experiences, if the data plan is right.

This could be the week that Apple chalks up its one-billionth iPhone application download, according to this post at MoCoNews. Principal Correspondent Tricia Duryee does the math and figures “about 100 apps are being downloaded every second-that’s 6,000 every minute, 360,000 every hour and 8.6 million a day.”

It’s a flood of apps that pegs the needle, and no doubt plays in favor of companies that recognized the potential of the Apple App Store early on. I’m thinking here of mobile ad marketplace AdMob, which just launched Download Tracking for iPhone applications, allowing advertisers to accurately monitor App Store conversion rates, (detailed in a separate post based on an exclusive briefing with Russell Buckley, AdMob VP Global Alliances); and Taptu, a mobile search company gearing up to solve the search/discovery problem in the “Touch Web” and become a leading App Store mobile ad network in the process (an ambitious plan I discuss tomorrow’s exclusive Q&A with Andreas Bernstrom, Taptu COO).

The iPhone has helped to unleash a new interest among consumers in the mobile Web, but it nonetheless represents a tiny subset of the total mobile market. To date Apple has sold 17 million iPhones worldwide (a total Nokia generally tops in a fortnight). Garter puts it in perspective: It concludes that smartphones account for a small percentage of handsets (11-12 percent of all handsets sold globally), and iPhones account for an even smaller percentage of total smartphones (8.2 percent of handsets sold globally).

Another keys data point comes from comScore. It reports that more than half (54 percent) of app users are in households making at least $75,000 per year. If your end-goal is about reaching a mass-market audience with apps, ads or marketing campaigns, you’re well-advised to think beyond the iPhone.

Before jumping on the iPhone bandwagon, we should also take a closer look at new stats from AdMob and Bango, numbers that both confirm and deny iPhone’s leading position.

First, the monthly AdMob Mobile Metrics Report.

It lists the top smartphones in its network (market share AdMob calculates “based on the percentage of requests received by a particular handset” for the ads its serves), and found that smartphones generated a whopping 33 percent of worldwide traffic in February 2009, up 26 percent from six months ago. The real surprise: iPhone generated 33 percent of all smartphone traffic worldwide and half (!) of all traffic in the U.S.

Wow (!), iPhone is where the action is – or so it seems…

New data from Bango, a provider of mobile analytics solutions, tells a different story. The Bango Top 20 handset list (likewise based on February stats) puts the Nokia 3110c in the number one spot; iPhone comes in at number 24 (!). By way of background,Bango data looks at the activities of major brands and businesses as their consumers browse to mobile websites (measured by Bango Analytics) and buy mobile content and services (as measured by Bango Payment).

How can iPhone be both a leader and a laggard?

As this well-written/researched post from mobiThinking points out: It depends on where you sit. AdMob counts the number of mobile adverts it serves to different types of handsets, not unique handsets. “So, if iPhone users surf more (aren’t the majority of iPhone users on unlimited data plans?), then iPhones go to the top. So, from AdMob’s perspective iPhone is indeed the only game in town.

Bango, because it can identify and track unique visitors to its customers’ sites, has correctly identified a diverse range of handsets browsing the mobile Web. It’s a more representative sample of the devices surfing the mobile Web, with smartphones accounting for 30 percent of handsets in the top 20.

My take: The existence of two conflicting views of the handsets that matter most (to advertisers/publishers) underlines the importance of employing analytics tools that provide a more holistic view of what customers do and the devices they use. Focusing only on the iPhone or only mass-market handsets is a sure-fire way to short change yourself and your customers. It takes two, baby!

But it’s not just about big-picture anayltics; it’s about how brands and publishers approach the mobile Web.

As Boris Fridman, Crisp Wireless CEO, points out (via the company newsletter): ” For everyone thinking about investing in an iPhone app, I say, kudos – but don’t do it at the expense of a mobile website.  Our recent Crisp Wireless Index shows that iPhone usage for mobile browsing across our network has grown significantly from 9.1 percent to 22.98 percent.  However, Blackberry browsing still holds a significant share at 23.98%. Furthermore, recent studies from Pinch Media show that as novelty wears off, iPhone app usage drops significantly after 90 days. Mobile has become a crucial channel that requires a multi-pronged approach.  Our own Tom Limongello recently stated it best in his blog post pointing out how maintaining a mobile or iPhone-optimized website to complement iPhone apps is key to maintaining discoverability and addressing a broader market.” (More from Crisp Wireless  in an exclusive interview next week.)

I’m reminded here of an interesting debate during a recent industry conference, a discussion I would like to open up to MSG readers. Does the popularity of the iPhone among this demographic and the continued hype around the iPhone (one that sees many companies invest in the iPhone as their only mobile play) combine at some level to create a new kind of iPhone-only affluent mobile Internet (as opposed to a mass-market mobile Internet for the rest of us)? What do YOU think? What’s more, is there a danger this will increase fragmentation and move us one giant step away from the One Web vision Steve Bratt, Chief Executive Officer, World Wide Web Consortium, outlines in this excellent presentation?

Disclaimer: AdMob has been an MSG supporter; Bango is an MSG supporter.