Mobile Groove

In brief: Building on the tremendous positive response to a recent talk on app marketing I catch up with Mike Lurye, Director of Product Marketing at Amdocs Interactive, to connect the dots in the models that will enable a developer/retailer ecosystem, pave the way for a Long Tail of app

UPDATE: The deadline for submissions is extended to today. It’s also an excellent opportunity for all the super-cool personalization and content discovery companies to shine!

I know and cover many of you on MSG – and encourage you to get involved. They’ve been dubbed the ‘Oscars of the mobile world’ – and the title fits. The Meffys (Mobile Entertainment Awards) are indeed the mobile industry’s recognized benchmark for measuring success and rewarding innovation. That’s why MSG is particularly proud to be a media partner and why I am honored the Mobile Entertainment Forum (MEF) has asked

The explosion in app stores and off-portal browsing are changing all the rules, pushing content discovery (and the search for solutions to make finding stuff easier) to the top of the agenda. This came across in my own on-going research (dating back to 2005) and the industry-first report I wrote on the topic at the time, aptly titled Mobile Search & Content Discovery.

Back then content owners and mobile operators alike complained about content discovery shortcomings, ones that no mobile search services could solve for a myriad of reasons I outlined during my recent mobile search masterclass.

Fast forward to (almost) 2010, and it’s shaping up to be an exciting time indeed, with recommenders (finally) taking center stage. Industry interest is high and this has prompted

Editor’s note: Apple has the first-mover advantage, and its App Store sets the bar. The result is a buoyant market for apps and ample opportunity for fast-followers to (perhaps) do one better. Benjamin E. Jacobsen – Co-Founder of Mobspot, Inc., a company championing “Mobile App developers and App users on any platform,” and a new author to MSG – gives his take on the size of the market and the prospects for other players.

IS THE APP INDUSTRY WORTH NEARLY $7 BILLION? Will Apple do nearly a billion dollars in revenue in its first year of the App Store? While the exact numbers are debatable, you can’t ignore the monster success Apple has had with its store (which also drives device sales, by the way). How much money has Apple made? This post, titled Apple has made no more than $20 – 45m in revenue from the app store, gives us a figure. One I might add is not too shabby for a product yet to see its first birthday. What makes this more remarkable is that Apple has captured between 1-2 percent total market share worldwide (including feature phones), and only 10.8 percent share worldwide in the smartphone segment. Few (save Juniper) have taken a stab at valuing the total app industry.

StatCounter’s recent announcement that Opera Mini surpasses the iPhone’s Safari as the most popular web browser for mobile phones is testament to the potential of the greater industry. Opera Mini is the most downloaded Java application of all time. So, while I am excited about the enthusiasm for the iPhone, I find the conversation is missing a big-picture perspective. The question we should be asking is: What is the total app market worldwide really worth? After all, Opera Mini’s success story underlines the potential of the app market beyond just the iPhone.

So, allow me to take a shot at valuing the total app industry, worldwide, for pay-apps (apps you pay to own on your phone). This is the total value excluding Of course, we have to exclude free apps like Opera Mini.

In a nutshell: If Apple can do nearly $1 billion in sales its first year and has 10.8 percent smartphone market share worldwide, how much is the total smartphone app market worth?

This post from AppleInsider tells us that Apple could do $777 million in App Store downloads in 2009.

A 10.8 percent worldwide smartphone market share implies that the total mobile app market is $7.2 billion, if all smartphone users spend as much on apps as iPhone users do. We know that this won’t be the case. A much more likely scenario is one in which smartphone users will spend far less.

So, let’s assume users with these handsets (other than the iPhone) spend half (50 percent) of what iPhone users on App downloads. Now let’s do the math.

$7.2 billion is the extrapolated industry valuation of direct revenue from apps if consumers spent as much on apps for other platforms as they do the iPhone. Let’s take $7.2 billion minus $777 million (iPhone app share), and multiply that by 50 percent. That gives us a valuation of $3.2 billion for the non-iPhone app market, or $4 billion total, including the iPhone.

($7.2 billion – $777 million) * 0.5 = $3.2 billion non-iPhone app market.)

A look at Fox Mobile’s deal with Mobile Content Networks (MCN)to deploy vertical paid search programs across multiple markets worldwide PLUS MSG catches up with Fox Mobile CEO Mauro Montanaro to connect the dots in the company’s ambitious mobile search, content discovery and recommendation strategies.

A major advantage to writing the Netsize Guide 2009 was the opportunity it provided me to connect with 34 C-Level executives for no holds barred interviews to discuss the opportunities/threats/trends highest on their radar. My interview with Mauro Montanaro, CEO Fox Mobile, was more than your typical Q&A; it was an invigorating exchange that we have pledged to continue on a regular basis. The reason: We understand the pivotal importance of mobile search, content discovery, and recommendation in all content-selling strategies moving forward.

Fast forward, and mobile content companies are beginning to understand the benefits of mobile search and, more importantly, search merchandising. Why? Because simple Retail 101 tells us customers can’t buy what they cannot find, and, with operator portals on the way out, D2C destinations can best bubble their content offers up to the surface if they are findable in the first place. Paid search schemes round out the model, allowing content providers to monetize their traffic (which can be considerable for large brands, a major reason why so many of them are beefing up their mobile search/paid search strategies).

Which brings us to this week’s news that Fox Mobile (more specifically Fox Mobile Distribution’s consumer brand sites Jamba and Jamster content sites) has sealed a deal with MCN, a provider of search management, search merchandising, and PPC vertical paid search programs. The service will initially launch with the search results of carriers in Thailand and Sweden, and will later extend to other regions.

The arrival of Android and the remarkable success of the iPhone have whet our appetite for mobile data services, but they don’t solve the usability issues that prevent mobile data services from becoming a routine part of daily life for many mobile users.

Granted, the iPhone and G1 tackle a laundry list of usability issues. They have been instrumental in raising consumer awareness of the mobile Internet. But what about the vast majority of users on mid-range devices? Recent research from the Yankee Group reports that almost 70 percent of subscribers have either never used the mobile Web on their mobile phones or, only tried it once or twice.