Is Twitter Heading For A Meltdown?
The first signs of discontent are appearing among the Twitterati, and this time it’s not to do with the fail whale, Twitter’s crash page, that tells us twitter has once again failed. It goes much deeper that than.
The recent arrival on Twitter of Jonathan Ross and Jeremy Clarkson (BBC TV presenters for those who don’t know) has led some hardened Twitterholics to suggest that it may be time to “jump ship”. OK, so Clarkson wasn’t the real deal (or a ‘fakelebrity’ as the Guardian – a U.K. news site – put it), but Jonathan Ross’ primetime return to BBC screens will include an interview with the UK’s leading Twitterer, Stephen Fry, bringing the geek-laden micro-blogging service very much into the mainstream
This poses a serious question for any 2.0 companies out there: Why are we as humans so hell-bent on being part of something new and innovative (praising and marketing it to peers as the Next Big Thing), only to turn off the moment it tips towards the mainstream?
Is there a point when a social network becomes too big? Sure looks like there is – and we may have reached it.
In January of last year both Facebook and MySpace lost 5 percent of their subscribers, suggesting that the number of users had reached a plateau.
And business network LinkedIn may also be too much of a good thing. Leading mobile marketer, Helen Keegan of Beep Marketing and Technokitten fame (soon to appear as a columnist on MSG), was quoted recently in a Guardian article – exposure that resulted in Helen receiving a link request on LinkedIn from a person in a totally unrelated industry. OK – so this may not exactly be a bad thing, but it is a sign that the core value of LinkedIn may be diluting.
Fortunately for those of us waiting for a sudden deluge of Twactivity (Twitter activity), The The Telegraph (in particular Bryony Gordon) implies that middle England is not ready to take up micro-blogging – check out her article “Twittering is for twits with nothing better to do”.
But there is a point in there somewhere, and Ewan McLeod (from our partners at Mobile Industry Review) alludes to it. “Twittering is 99 percent ego and 1 percent useful”. It’s just a case of ensuring that you can see that 1 percent useful. And Doc Searls, one of the leading thinkers in this space, agrees, citing a “Noise/Signal ratio of 600-to-1″ in a recent article for Linux Journal
For me though, the biggest challenge facing social networks in the coming year is monetising the audience. The delivery of advertising to users must be both contextual and relevant, or it just ends up as a fail. And banner advertising is also off the mark in my book (as an example, Facebook clearly still has a long way to go). Conversation and engagement are the buzz words for brands, and the Holy Grail for social networks seeking to deliver significant monetisation.
Peggy adds: Twitter can surely get more mileage out of search. I’m told by Vince Staybl, Gofresh CEO, that search is a main attraction in mobile social networks such as itsmy.com (which belongs to Gofresh). Read between the lines and it is a business model that could pay dividends for all networks moving forward. But the model may be more about convenience than CPMs or CTRs.
Tags: Mobile Social Networks, MySpace, Twitter
January 10th, 2009 at 2:30 am
I disagree with large parts of this. The fact that Jonathan Ross and Stephen Fry will be talking about Twitter does not mean Tit has entered the mainstream. It simply means a couple of celebs happen to think it is something hip and cool, therefore driving the fashionistas into the Twitterverse.
As to receiving ‘friend’ requests etc from people with whom there is no obvious connection, welcome to my world. I’ve moaned and groaned about PR in this context for years, only to be told that I should forgive and forget. People are always looking to ‘hang on’ to someone who they perceive as having some sort of higher ’status’ in whatever field. It’s the ol’ A-list syndrome. It’s not an indicator of meltdown, it’s an indicator of immaturity in the solutions. That’s fixable.
The signal to noise ratio can be a problem. Sure, if you’re glued to Twitter all day then it is going to seem that way. But then define noise. For some it won’t be but for others it could be horrific. Even so, there are plenty of tools out there that would enable users to at least moderate their inbound traffic. How about simply following less people? It’s not brain surgery.
The advertising jibe is obvious. At this stage it is almost impossible to imagine that Twitter will be able to advertise. How? Including in the outbound firehose? What about the different client apps?
But in the end I just don’t see how you get to ‘meltdown.’ What does that mean?
January 10th, 2009 at 3:37 am
I do think early adopters and innovators are getting ready to jump ship – the idea of mainstream Twitter is unappealing and its future seems fruitless. I think the “Early Majority” is very gung-ho about Twitter being adopted into the mainstream and having it take over the place of Facebook ( and even Myspace). Many of my followers on Twitter have expressed the “uselessness” of Facebook, with comments like, “I actually care what people on twitter have to say. Unlike facebook or myspace.” It seems that Facebook has lost its transparency after going mainstream and for some that meant it wholly lost its charm. In its youth, Twitter seems to be transparent, with a clear line of good vs bad: tweeters who tweet with good intentions and spammers.
January 18th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
Thought provoking article, though I happen to disagree is several major points made.
As I stated on my post, I rate much of what James and Peggy are doing for the industry but feel there is more to Twitter than is eluded to above.
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February 21st, 2009 at 1:28 pm
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