Does Google Motorola Tie-Up Signal Turning Point For Android?
The bombshell news that Google is snapping up Motorola continues to shake up the industry this week, with watchers and insiders debating the massive implications for the global mobile ecosystem. But what about the long-term consequences for Android? Carsten Brinkschulte gives us three reasons why this could backfire and even close the door to an open operating system in the market altogether.
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Reams have been written and tweeted about the Google-Motorola Mobility tie-up, with much of the analysis sharply focused on the significant patent portfolio that Google under its belt as a result. The patents will certainly be an advantage and go a long way toward protecting the vulnerable IP position of Android. However, it’s not all good news.
1. Google’s acquisition of Motorola Mobility is reminiscent of Symbian’s rise and fall
The acquisition means Google is effectively a device manufacturer, a shift that puts Google in an extremely precarious position with Android’s tier-1 device manufacturers. The potential consequence of this cannot be underestimated. As a competitor in the ecosystem, Google will no doubt have an unfair advantage. The reality of this is slowly sinking in, and is already creating unease within the device manufacturer community.
Ironically, this latest chapter in Android’s development shares many similarities with what we have already seen happen once in the mobile industry. I’m speaking here about the rise and fall of Symbian.
From a strategic perspective Android may well be on its way to becoming another Symbian, which you’ll recall was also an open source operating system that had several device manufacturers backing it including Siemens, Sony Ericsson, Samsung and Motorola. Symbian, however, went the way of the Dodo bird and became extinct because competitive pressures came into play. In the end, all of the tier-1 licensees turned their backs on Symbian when it became wholly owned by Nokia.
The fact that Symbian was open source clearly didn’t help to allay fears or ease competitive tensions. Once Nokia took control of the Symbian operating system, neutrality among the parties was replaced by outright rivalry. Strategic conflict dominated and undermined Symbian. In the end, the competing players pulled out of Symbian altogether. Some focused on building their own proprietary operating system strategies, others joined alternative ecosystems.
Interestingly, it was actually Android that came out on top. Device manufacturers jumped to Android because they saw it as an operating system that was open and free of the conflict that the Symbian consortium fostered. Appearing to be the only safe bet on the market, Android enjoyed a meteoric rise.
Until now.
With Google’s acquisition of Motorola Mobility, it’s like Symbian all over again. These device manufacturers find themselves in much the same situation as they did when Nokia gained full control of Symbian. Will history repeat itself? It’s not unreasonable to predict a similar path of development for Android.
2. Android was Google’s Trojan horse and both device manufacturers and carriers are now feeling the sting
Google’s Android operating system was perhaps too good to be true. For device manufacturers it was, at the time, a nice gift, attractive and – crucially – free. But even free has its price in the end. With the acquisition of Motorola Mobility, Google has wheeled the Trojan horse up to the gates of Android licensees Samsung and LG. And both have pulled the ‘gift’ into their fortresses.
But it’s not just the device manufacturers who will suffer the consequences in this battle.. The Trojan horse also stands at the door to challenge carriers as Google’s real plan becomes crystal clear. Google really wants to own the customer (just as the carriers do now). The only way for Google to achieve this is to build a direct relationship with the user for services, thereby reducing carriers to a ‘dumb’ pipe along the way.
3. Android is where the action is for the short-term, but developers and manufacturers are keeping their options open.
As the acquisition plays out over the coming year developers will, and rightly so, continue to bet on Android. However, the picture is very different if we look 12 -18 months into the future.
That’s when tier-1 manufacturers, as well as the developer community, will likely start looking elsewhere, a shift that potentially signals the peak for Android.
Why 12 months? Because there are many Android devices in the pipeline which will be shipped and make it to market completely unaffected by Google’s strategic move. It’s therefore reasonable to expect that Android will continue its rise for the coming year.
However, the fallout from this deal will inevitably have its effect on the market. I expect that LG and Samsung (and perhaps also HTC) will likely start looking elsewhere once alternative platforms start shipping. The developer community will no doubt follow suit.
Where does that leave the other operating systems?
Many have suggested that Google’s move may well provide a boost to Windows Phone from Microsoft. I would take it one step further and argue that Meego may also benefit. While many may have written Meego off when Nokia pulled out, it is nonetheless widely considered to be a solid operating system. And let’s not forget that Meego also has a big backer in Intel.
Samsung may choose to refocus on Bada over the next 12 months. This leaves LG–which doesn’t have its own smartphone operating system to fall back on — in a delicate position. LG has a choice: It can invest in its own operating system, or it can decide to go with Windows Phone or Meego.
Finally, there is also rampant speculation that Microsoft may acquire Nokia. If this were to happen, it would not bode well for the success of Windows Phone 7. Other device manufacturers are not likely to rally round an operating system or ecosystem in which a competitor has an unfair advantage. Windows Phone has such a small market share that it would be seen as proprietary anyway.
My take:
The Google-Motorola tie-up makes us question the motives of the players (Google) and the outlook for competing operating systems (Bada, Windows Phone 7). However, the much bigger question we need to ask ourselves is: Is there a place for an open operating system in the smartphone market at all?
What do YOU think? Does the wave of recent change rock your belief in open operating systems? Please share your thoughts with us in the comments section below.
About Carsten:
Carsten Brinkschulte is founder and CEO of Synchronica plc. A serial entrepreneur and mobile technology pioneer, Carsten has accurately identified technology trends and market opportunities and consistently translated them into leading-edge products. Under Carsten’s leadership, Synchronica has grown both organically and via a number of strategic acquisitions to be one of the leading mobile messaging vendors worldwide. In his spare time, Carsten is an avid technology and gadget enthusiast.
Follow Carsten and Synchronica on Twitter at @SynchronicaPLC.
