Mobile Groove

The central role of operators in the mobile content and services value chain has been a given since the start. Initially, their biggest asset was distribution. Their access to millions – even hundreds of millions of consumers — allowed them to call the shots and dictate the terms to providers and companies lining up to offer their content via operator portals. However, the advance of smartphones changes all the rules.

Mobile operators are now struggling to find their place in a value chain that is stacked in favor of the handset makers and OEMs that run the app stores. Sure, mobile operators can launch a competing app store. But the chances of success are limited. (In fact, we have yet to see a carrier leave its mark on the app landscape.)

From brands and agencies to Millennials and veteran observers, I encourage each to give their take on the issues and opportunities around mobile — specifically permission-based mobile marketing. Today we take a step back and look at the Big Picture and examine the questions posed in an even bigger debate going on in the industry: what is the value chain? And, more importantly, what is the value of apps?

Who better to ask than Martin Wilson? Martin recently published a critical look at companies’ obsession with delivering iPhone apps (a condition he terms iSyndrome). In it he also urges companies to think through their decision carefully because an iPhone app doesn’t deliver the same value to every customer segment.

Some of the leading wireless analysts issued reports this week, covering everything from revenue projected from the combination of mobile, social and local, to the size of the app business in 2011 and beyond.

First, a look at what Forrester thinks (views I was privileged to hear first-hand from mobile consumer expert Julie Ask during a private mobile marketing summit near San Francisco, where I also had the opportunity to present my views).

Google’s decision to embrace AT&T’s Direct Carrier Billing for Android users is a clear win for consumers because they can purchase apps and charge them to their mobile phone bill. But the real story is what this move means for mobile operators.

For large operators with established storefronts (like AT&T), the tie-up with Google means an increase in revenue because the carrier has effectively (and wisely) positioned itself to perform billing on behalf of a third-party storefront (this strategy is also known as BOBO). And this is in addition to the carrier’s benefit from selling content on its own.

We wrap up 2010 with a special holiday edition of the Mobile Groove podcast looking at the mobile stats and trends that really matter with mobile author and authority Tomi Ahonen. He connects the dots inQ4 results to name the top smartphone makers and reveal the magic number Apple has to beat in holiday shopping sales to become the number two after Nokia.

We also discuss Tomi’s recent response to Robert Scoble (via his blog Communities Dominate Brands) and why Tomi can be so sure Nokia will maintain it’s global lead (even though Tomi openly admits Nokia is “invisible” in the North American market). The answer lies in the numbers, and Tomi dissects the figures from analyst houses IDC and Strategy Analytics to determine Apple, RIM Blackberry and Nokia market share in the regions (North America, Europe, ROW- Rest Of World).

What are the pitfalls to watch when developing a mobile strategy? Why isn’t an app enough? What can you do to avoid the ‘iSyndrome’ that has blinded the industry to opportunities beyond the iPhone? Martin Wilson outlines the seven things you have to get right.