Apple Likely Has Last Laugh (Again); Google’s In-App Payments Could Change The Game » mobilegroove

If Apple is anything, it is unpredictable. I’ve been quite amused this week by the pundits and industry analysts who claim Apple will delay the introduction of the iPhone 5.

I have to wonder where they have been (or how well they really know Apple). Steve Jobs likes a little drama (and fun). Just think how many times Steve closed his speeches with “Just one more thing”– right before springing some of the industry’s biggest surprises on us. Cases in point: the introduction of the iMac and iPod.

Earlier this week, and as per usual this time of year, Apple invited software developers to its Worldwide Development Conference (WWDC) taking place June 6-10 in San Francisco.  The invitation said the focus of the show will be iOS and Mac OS.

Then the speculation began. A headline at Business Insider (which seems to have gotten one step ahead of itself here) claimed “Apple’s iPhone 5 Delay Just Opened The Door For Google And Microsoft.” Another headline went out a similar limb asserting “Here’s Why Apple’s iPhone ‘Delays’ Might Actually Be A Good Thing.”

What’s so “good” about it? Business Insider sees it this way: “While some may see this as an ‘un-Apple like’ “delay, this habit-breaking might actually be a good thing — for would-be iPhone buyers, Apple fans, and investors. Why? Because Apple needs another smartphone breakthrough, like the first iPhone was in 2007.”

HOW I SEE IT: Whether you are in California, Cancun or Copenhagen, you probably can hear the laughter coming from Apple’s Cupertino office. Of course, I have no inside information but I do suspect a ruse here. Think it through – carefully. Why would Apple deny the rumors now when the company has a chance to surprise us (again) and deliver a game-changer during the keynote? Admittedly, I could be wrong about this. Until we know for sure marketers would be ill-advised to plan strategy and campaigns based on the iPhone 4 (suddenly regarded by some as a stale device in the marketplace) and give up on iPhone 5 just yet. …

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Speaking of surprises, industry analyst firm IDC shocked many this week with its prediction that Windows Phone 7 will be second in worldwide handset share by 2015.

From IDC’s report: “Nokia’s recent announcement to shift from Symbian to Windows Phone will have significant implications for the smartphone market going forward. Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences. The new alliance brings together Nokia’s hardware capabilities and Windows Phone’s differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android.”

What’s more, IDC expects the worldwide smartphone market to grow 49.2 percent in 2011 as more consumers and enterprise users turn in their feature phones for smartphones with more advanced features. IDC forecasts that smartphone vendors will ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011 compared to the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010. Moreover, the smartphone market will grow more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market.

HOW I SEE IT: Microsoft has publicly (and repeatedly) stated that it believes the race for market share is just starting. And it’s right. IDC is far from the last word on this. In fact, IDC was ridiculed on blogs and Twitter for its unbridled confidence in Microsoft’s ability to turn things around and close the gap to its rivals. As I point out every week in this column, mobile is constantly changing. Betting on one player or dumping another is foolish. The better play for marketers is to be flexible and nimble — and be ready for all the exciting stuff (content, campaigns, connected devices) mobile can (and will) make possible between now and 2015 (and thereafter).

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In previous columns I have examined the mobile app frenzy and how companies are making money from apps. So far, it’s been a little like a lottery (to borrow from mobile authority Tomi Ahonen). You win some, you lose some. Some developers have made loads of money (think of Angry Birds), and many more have yet to see a return on their time and investment.

This week, Google made a move aimed at improving the odds. It has introduced in-app billing to give developers “more ways to monetize your apps with try-and-buy, virtual goods, upgrades, and other billing models.”

According to Google, several apps coming to market are using the service, including Tap Tap Revenge by Disney Mobile; Comics by ComiXology; Gun Bros, Deer Hunter Challenge HD, and WSOP3 by Glu Mobile; and Dungeon Defenders: FW Deluxe by Trendy Entertainment. Google may not be the first to introduce in-app billing, but when it gets involved the market takes notice. (Remember: the Google acquisition of AdMob validated the mobile advertising opportunity.)

HOW I SEE IT: Potentially, in-app billing is a win-win-win for consumers, app developers and Google. The mobile operators, of course, also want their slice of the pie. But at least the use of carrier billing gives operators a seat at the table. Apple’s approach, with its focus on credit card payments, bypassed mobile operators entirely. Will in-app billing jumpstart more app purchases and use? We can’t say for sure. But we can be sure that increased ease of use for consumers will likely drive more purchases (particularly since the monetization model allows consumers to try first and then buy). What’s more, the security of knowing that there is a viable business model will likely motivate more developers to make more apps.

This entry was posted on Friday, April 1st, 2011 at 7:22 pm and is filed under Mobile Apps, Mobile Marketing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.